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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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So my key number is model 3 gross margin:

20% Q3 and guided for same in Q4. I find that neutral to negative honestly.

Everything else I have to sort out.

They state it's due to lower cost options on NAmerican cars, so that's logical, but will be offset by further efficiency gains.

Once Europe starts deliveries, margin will increase again.
 
This is just such a nice way of putting it (ending paragraph of the letter):

As we have transformed from a 100,000 per year unit carmaker into a ~340,000 unit per year carmaker, our earnings profile has flipped dramatically. Sufficient Model 3 profitability was critical to make our business sustainable – something many argued would be impossible to achieve. Due to the ingenuity and incredible hard work of our team combined with an innovative vehicle design and manufacturing strategy, we have achieved total auto gross margin of ~25%.
 
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Had a cool 5 seconds to spare...
 
I didn’t see a projection for q4 model three production or deliveries. Was there one? If not, is this something the shorts are going to latch onto?
Remember that holiday construction, factory, office, sales, and service work usually slows down for Christmas and entering the colder months. All I see is the first paragraph under "Outlook": "Model 3 quarterly production and deliveries should continue to increase in Q4 compared to Q3. Our target of delivering 100,000 Model S and X vehicles this year remains unchanged.".
 
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this is the best possible way for them to repay the notes. In cash rather than stock.
Well technically at these levels they can’t pay it off with the stock conversion. And selling more stock to pay would be worse than taking new debt at a higher rate. I think they MAY be able to leverage this all into a roll of the debt with a better negotiating position and decent rates.
 
Well technically at these levels they can’t pay it off with the stock conversion. And selling more stock to pay would be worse than taking new debt at a higher rate. I think they MAY be able to leverage this all into a roll of the debt with a better negotiating position and decent rates.

Why would they need to roll the debt forward? They have enough cash to pay it off now, they will have even more after Q4 and the beginning of 19Q1.
 
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