TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[bdy0627]

analyst upgrades are what's gonna move the price now.

Tesla executed better than anyone could've imagined, now we wait.

Here's GS 2nd downgrade that will be coming soon:
Though there were some positives, it was clearly a miss from our revenue forecast. Really disappointing there. If Tesla can't even hit our revenue forecast for a blowout quarter like Q3, it spells trouble, big trouble. We are going to have to downgrade further to...$195.

 

[bdy0627]

AH Stock price went right back to 15 minutes after market close..$315. I hope it goes to 420 tomorrow.

Come on, you'd be mad as hell at yourself if it goes to $420 tomorrow. I don't think that's going to happen...tomorrow. Not with the market in trouble now. Patience. Nice out at $331.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Going from 7K/week to 10K/week may also take a long time, but they still fully intend to do that at Fremont. It's all the ramp that is shaped like an "S-Curve" that Elon talked about a year or two ago.

Maybe not. There's a part of me that says they should get stable and efficient so they can "Copy Exactly" for China or other Factories. That's harder to do when things keep changing. I wonder actually if they'll use that approach (borrowing the method from Intel).

 

[beachbum77]

You really can't help yourself ...can you?

As a former new car dealer, every OEM walks a fine line on repair costs for out of warranty cars. Why do you think separate repair shops do so well and can be found everywhere? Dealers are locked into higher technician and overhead costs driven by the OEM's requirements. They cannot compete. So dealers try to excel at the service and convenience aspects. Tesla at this time does not allow anyone else to service their cars. Having no other option, if costs become too high people could dump the cars. That is a very fine line Tesla must carefully consider.

This is not a "bearish" comment. It is a reality of the car biz comment. I will be very curious to watch how Tesla walks this line. IMHO, at the rate they are pumping out cars they will soon have no choice but to allow outside shops to perform non-warranty services and make parts available to them.

 

[SOULPEDL]

This day was enjoyable for me. I did get a few things done but this was the main event for sure.
Thanks for being here... see you on the other side!
21

 

[M3Rider]

I have advocated walking down the price of all Tesla vehicles in increments since Elon was a baby.

Start with fully loaded S,X and 3.

Then lower the content and corresponding price by $2k-$5k increments.

The interesting take away from the call is Elon confirmed he wants to make an affordable car asap. When he talked about 35k car he said that
1. Profitability may come in ~6 months
2. SRs may start getting delivered in Feb-Mar 19, which is really only 4 months.

Pushing it to happen so fast I think brings a question of excess demand. Surely they could have exploited Europe's demand for higher trims for another 2 quarters, considering reservations +new demand for immediate availability. And Elon mentioned M3 demand in Europe is 2x of U.S., I assume b/c of space constraints and less obsession about CUVs.

Yet, if he really wants to deliver $35k car in Feb-Mar, I think this raises issue of not enough production capacity to satisfy the demand for all trims. I.e. LR order may be waiting for 3 months b/c SR order happened in front of it.

This is interesting times when profitability may be sacrificed to the mission statement.

 

[EVNow]

I'm riding it out. Done selling, don't need the cash now.
But later I'll take some off the top to buy other stuff that's on sale, after the Dems take over.

Which calls do you have ?

My long shares I'm not touching (from 2011 !) - but not sure about J19 calls. Every day the share doesn't move, we lose a bit (2% ?) because of time value. Besides, can't be sure Tesla won't somehow magically get back to 250 in a couple of weeks.

 

[RobStark]

I'd like to point out that Tesla investor mythology (whatever that is) was spot on with Q3. Pretty much everybody except Value Analyst had underestimated Q3 results. No reason not to be bullish with TSLA going forward.

I think we (bulls) were hoping for ~$50M GAAP profit excluding ZEV?

Props to VA ..... even though he gave me ~1M dislikes.

 

[DaveT]

All the manipulators have to do is short the stock at open as usual, and trigger the panic selling. It’s happened almost every day. I have over 200k in stock and options but this is plain to see. Price should be $400 but I’m scarred for life with these damn morning dips :/

We’ll see tomorrow. But my bet is for a strong day.

 

[bdy0627]

Where is Tesla making the model Y in the second half of next year?

Maybe a tent in Andrew Left's backyard?

 

[MXWing]

I wish Elon / Tesla would have explained the tax subsidy “loss” this way:

Apologies for the California reference since I can’t think of a better example at the moment:

There is currently a coupon for cheaper In N Out Burgers. There is also a coupon for Big Macs.

The coupon going away isn’t going to cut that much into In N Out sales. There’s some sales loss for sure but it’s not that significant.
In N Out is a premium product with higher demand even if it’s more expensive net net.

Never mind the Model 3 is the best car in class regardless of subsidies.

The economics term is low price elasticity of demand.

 

[RobStark]

And Elon mentioned M3 demand in Europe is 2x of U.S., I assume b/c of space constraints and less obsession about CUVs.

Small correction.

He said BMW 3 Series demand is 2x in Europe vs US.

Model 3 out competes 3 Series in the US so he figures European demand is at least 2x in Europe.

Ultimately Elon thinks global demand for Model 3 is somewhere between 500k( BMW 3 Series) and 1M units per year (VW Golf).

 

[S3XY]

Yes and he sounded way more awake than last quarter!

Something tells me that Elon is sleeping much better at night these days.

 

[bdy0627]

So looks like the stock settled in around 316, just shy of +10% after hours. Kind of disappointed, was hoping it would stay at 325

Makes you wonder what it would have done if the market were healthy. I would think 20%+.

 

[M3Rider]

Small correction.

He said BMW 3 Series demand is 2x in Europe vs US.

Model 3 out competes 3 Series in the US so he figures European demand is at least 2x in Europe.

Ultimately Elon thinks global demand for Model 3 is somewhere between 500k( BMW 3 Series) and 1M units per year (VW Golf).

Well yeah, but that demand for smaller cars may come from space constraints and less obsession about CUVs, so no contradiction here.

 

[homer214]

"...most excited about the Tesla Pickup, that's going to be some next level stuff" - Elon

The most interesting part of a very solid conference call. The Pickup truck may drive the last nail into ICE’s coffin. My contractor brother is waiting for this one. Today has been such a good day. Onward...

 

[ZsoZso]

Summary:
1. 5k a week Model 3 is the new 10k a week. Kiss that 10k/week good bye. 5k/week enough to support Europe, China and US demand in Q1. Gotcha!
2. All talks about 10k a week vanished.
3. Was the $35k Model 3 contingent upon 10k a week Model 3 on a sustained basis? I think it was. So bye bye that too.
4. FSD bye bye.
5. $100 a KWh battery has been hyped up for so long in the past. Gone. Won't comment anymore.
6. Solar roof tiles that was ready to sell 2 years ago is now in R&D and testing!

The only sad part is I can't find shares to short.

soo sad...
You will need to up your game a lot and bring your best A+ style in the next 2 months and a bit, so that we can remember you fondly while you take your 1 year sabbatical from the forum as per your wager -- just because I don't see Nissan tooling up Leaf production dramatically in the next day or so to catch up with the model 3 sales...

 

[bdy0627]

All the manipulators have to do is short the stock at open as usual, and trigger the panic selling. It’s happened almost every day. I have over 200k in stock and options but this is plain to see. Price should be $400 but I’m scarred for life with these damn morning dips :/

The only fear longs should have at this point is the market being in trouble, certainly nothing with Tesla now at this valuation. The market is generating some legit fear right now, that's the problem.

 

[Remus]

At the end of last year Uber claimed to have 750k drivers in the U.S. and 2 million globally. With a parttime take rate of 10% of Tesla Model 3 owners, it could take a decade or more to be able to support a service. Tesla drivers are better off just signing up for Uber or Lyft as they do now.

No one is going to use a service where the low numbers of cars make it a toss-up if there is even a car available when they need a ride. Riders are just not motivated to wait. At this time Uber and Lyft do not even have a way for someone to request an EV. That would be an important first step to see just how many riders would be willing to wait an extra 10-15 mins for an EV.

There is a taxi company started from Hangzhou, China. They buy EVs from Geely, and hire drivers to provide Uber like service. They have been very successful in Hangzhou so they are expanding to other cities.

曹操专车

The car they are using sells for 200k RMB, vastly inferior to my model 3. How do I know? I used their service a couple dozen times and talked to the drivers.

Now imagine 35k$ model 3 in China without the tariff!

 

[Doit]

There may come a time where Chinese sourced goods are superior in quality (imo only, coming very soon, many suppliers compete with each other).

Since at least entering 21st century, products made in Chia are often inferior mostly because buyers are only willing to pay cheaply. Expecting your $39.99 pair of jeans has comparable quality with your $399 or even $179 pair of designer jeans simply doesn't make sense at all.

With everything being equal (equipment, raw material, parts, manufacturing processes, ...) other than workers, I actually expect products made in China at least as good as those made anywehre in the world. Why?

While Chinese culture does not favor creativity, it does favor following set of rules. In the process of manufacturing, the opposite of individualism favors more consistent products. Remember Jack Ma once said that Chinese-manufactured fake products are just as good -- if not better -- than the real deal? There is actually some truth in it. And there are so many factors supporting this thesis far beyond this short post.

As to Tesla, as long as GF3 has the same robots, same or actually better general assembly lines etc. according to Elon, ..., there is no reason why Tesla cars made in China are not as good as made in Fremont, or even better - as stated by Elon that they are actually still improving quality.