I assume you are talking about Einhorn. Every time he explains why he goes long or short a stock, I can tell he doesn't understand it. This is true for Tesla, it's also true for the other stocks that he talked about.
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I assume you are talking about Einhorn. Every time he explains why he goes long or short a stock, I can tell he doesn't understand it. This is true for Tesla, it's also true for the other stocks that he talked about.
StapleGun
Member
Honestly I'm not sure I've ever encountered a truly blind curve. Anyways, care to comment on the substance of my post?
My point is that the NN is used for perception, not for path planning and control. Those are procedural algorithms.
After drowning in misery for so along, I'm starting to feel that euphoria feeling again. And that's bad because, what follows is also a massive, soul crushing crash.
Call option holders, first of all, good job with making a bunch of cash these last two days. Second, what's your plan on when to cash out of your call options? Obviously, unlike regular stock, we can't hold onto it forever. Are you waiting for a target? Some kind of indicator? I'm looking at the RSI and also how closely it sticks to the upper BB.
Call option holders, first of all, good job with making a bunch of cash these last two days. Second, what's your plan on when to cash out of your call options? Obviously, unlike regular stock, we can't hold onto it forever. Are you waiting for a target? Some kind of indicator? I'm looking at the RSI and also how closely it sticks to the upper BB.
ZachF
Active Member
Their problem is that they think they have longer than they actually do.
When the steep part of the adoption S-Curve hits, it's going to be hard to spend billions transitioning to EVs while your ICE business is simultaneously losing billions with collapsing sales.
mltv
Member
I am assuming one big advantage Tesla self driving taxi service over Uber/other is that Tesla would have large number of FSD customer already trusting the tech as potential customers.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Demand isn’t going anywhere. We haven’t even open reservations to Europe yet right? Same goes for China...
Favorite CC quote: We anti-gamed the system.
Surprise of Q3 letter: bring portions of Model 3 production to China during 2019.
Main takeaway: Tesla is, and will be more so in coming years selling higher ASP cars than most people think.
By that, Elon & Co. most likely underestimate (or just lowballing?) worldwide sustainable M3 demand (500K-1M).
As the Q3 update letter points out that more than half of trade-in vehicles wer priced below $35,000 when new for starting price of a model 3 of $49,000.
An analogy is that before iPhone, there was not much people doling out $499 to buy a mobile phone in 2000s, smart or dumb. After all, Gordon Gekko's phone looked ridiculous. Phone is supposed to get cheaper and cheaper, smaller and smaller, no?
Steve Ballmer is no dumb, but here we have his "iconic" laughing:
And of course, Apple is selling $1,000 phones.
I expect Tesla cars will have a similar trajectory, or even more so:
1. Tesla cars are not just cars.
2. Tesla cars will be better, and better, and better...
3. Overall, people will be wealthier and wealthier.
4. Above all, once FSD realized, that alone will turn a car into totally not a car. For one, an FSD Tesla could be an investment to be part of Tesla mobility. For that, people are willing to pay dearly.
What else?
Now Tela has S3X, followed by Semi, new Roadster, pick-up truck, and Y. What I personally expect most next, is an RV, with FSD. I imagine myself sleeping in my truly mobile home, taking me from LA and arriving at Grand Canyon next morning, fully rested and ready to hike or whatever. Or roaming on the old streets of Charleston and Savannah, then arrive at the space coast, just in time to see this week's BFR launch to Mars.
Or just live my retiring life in my Tesla RV, move to a new place whenever I'm getting bored. There will be plenty of empty parking garages, right?
We can dream. With a Tesla.
Surprise of Q3 letter: bring portions of Model 3 production to China during 2019.
Main takeaway: Tesla is, and will be more so in coming years selling higher ASP cars than most people think.
By that, Elon & Co. most likely underestimate (or just lowballing?) worldwide sustainable M3 demand (500K-1M).
As the Q3 update letter points out that more than half of trade-in vehicles wer priced below $35,000 when new for starting price of a model 3 of $49,000.
An analogy is that before iPhone, there was not much people doling out $499 to buy a mobile phone in 2000s, smart or dumb. After all, Gordon Gekko's phone looked ridiculous. Phone is supposed to get cheaper and cheaper, smaller and smaller, no?
Steve Ballmer is no dumb, but here we have his "iconic" laughing:
I expect Tesla cars will have a similar trajectory, or even more so:
1. Tesla cars are not just cars.
2. Tesla cars will be better, and better, and better...
3. Overall, people will be wealthier and wealthier.
4. Above all, once FSD realized, that alone will turn a car into totally not a car. For one, an FSD Tesla could be an investment to be part of Tesla mobility. For that, people are willing to pay dearly.
What else?
Now Tela has S3X, followed by Semi, new Roadster, pick-up truck, and Y. What I personally expect most next, is an RV, with FSD. I imagine myself sleeping in my truly mobile home, taking me from LA and arriving at Grand Canyon next morning, fully rested and ready to hike or whatever. Or roaming on the old streets of Charleston and Savannah, then arrive at the space coast, just in time to see this week's BFR launch to Mars.
Or just live my retiring life in my Tesla RV, move to a new place whenever I'm getting bored. There will be plenty of empty parking garages, right?
We can dream. With a Tesla.
I particularly enjoyed the pause before he opted to use the word "stuff".
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Yes - also that yacht the executives want to buy
IOW, price is not always indicative of quality - and the brand, which guarantees certain level of quality, has a cost. Sometimes a lot of the price of an item is just that.
BTW, not talking about clothes bought on the streets (I don't think I've ever done that).
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
Model 3 got CR Average Reliability
Model S dropped from Above Average to Below Average Reliability.
Model X remains the 2nd least reliable vehicle sold in America. Thank Gawd for Ram 3500.
Given the mostly bad news it is good it dropped this afternoon swamped by $312M GAAP profits.
BTW And Thank You Jezus for Volvo.
Singer3000
Member
"Look it's a nice idea. But you can't make a mass market EV. First of all there's no demand. And anyway, you can't make them with positive margins, they're good for compliance credits only. Did you know that Tesla suppress their COGS, because they don't have a dealer network? Add back Service costs and take out ZEV because they don't count as real income".
Hmmm....
"Well Ok. But you're forgetting that they hide their R&D costs below the line. Every proper car company in the world puts R&D in COGS. Tesla don't! Ha, bunch of cheating jokers! Even if they have fat gross margins, they can't ever have positive operating margins. They'll never have operating leverage, their Opex will scale with deliveries and the more they sell the more they'll lose".
Err......
"Well whatever dude. They've burnt so much cash the whole building's coming down. Out of cash any day now, #TSLAQ!!".
Hmmm....
"Well Ok. But you're forgetting that they hide their R&D costs below the line. Every proper car company in the world puts R&D in COGS. Tesla don't! Ha, bunch of cheating jokers! Even if they have fat gross margins, they can't ever have positive operating margins. They'll never have operating leverage, their Opex will scale with deliveries and the more they sell the more they'll lose".
Err......
"Well whatever dude. They've burnt so much cash the whole building's coming down. Out of cash any day now, #TSLAQ!!".
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Shortsville Exclusive: Braking News
In an effort to prop up sagging sales, Ford Motor Co. (F) leaked details of its fullsize 2020 EV Prototype after today's F-earnings Report:
In an effort to prop up sagging sales, Ford Motor Co. (F) leaked details of its fullsize 2020 EV Prototype after today's F-earnings Report:
- Electronics by Radio Shack
- Battery sells supplied by Kodak
- Bty Operating System by Microsoft BOB
- Custom Interiors by Sears
- Creep-mode included
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Like Roman mythology.. you remember your buddy Jupiter right? Think back. He was proud of that lightning bolt and his ability to capture the interests of mortal women. One day he came to Earth and found a woman named Maye and the rest his history. Makes for a nice story but alas... it's about as true as most autopilot theories.
pz1975
Active Member
Why isn't there a "creepy" rating?
Krugerrand
Meow
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
EPS of 1.75. In probably 1 more year, the current valuation of $280 will be justified by fundamentals alone.
Currently PE is ~40x. If tesla manages to simply double production it will reach $280 at PE of 20x EPS.
I wonder when the shorts will realize this. They might need one of their own to repeat this for them to actually digest this fact since everything a long says are lies.
Currently PE is ~40x. If tesla manages to simply double production it will reach $280 at PE of 20x EPS.
I wonder when the shorts will realize this. They might need one of their own to repeat this for them to actually digest this fact since everything a long says are lies.
One strategy to overcome @neroden's learning from "poor drivers" argument would simply be to correlate a driver's sharp application of the brakes after making his/her decision about dealing with an edge situation. A simple connection of this type does not need to be valid 100% of the time, it only needs to correlate much of the time. I'd argue it does.
jhm
Well-Known Member
FCF $881MCurrent AH price of $320.
Just a quick estimate based on the $811m cash flow figure in Q3: even if Tesla stopped the ramp-up here and didn't grow, this suggests future (unencumbered) income of 811m*4/170m*20 = ~$380 per share valuation on a cash generation basis, with zero growth premium.
Assume growth to 10k/units worldwide and you can multiply that some more ...
So unless you absolutely think shorts are going to depress the price come the morning, or that we are shortly before a recession, you might want to ride this rocket to the Moon ... or to Mars:
(Not advice.)
You forgot to say operating system assistant provided by Microsoft Bob.
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