TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ThereAre4Cars]

EPS of 1.75. In probably 1 more year, the current valuation of $280 will be justified by fundamentals alone.

Currently PE is ~40x. If tesla manages to simply double production it will reach $280 at PE of 20x EPS.

I wonder when the shorts will realize this. They might need one of their own to repeat this for them to actually digest this fact since everything a long says are lies.

I am thinking 3.2x forward sales. That is an 8% net margin and 20 p/e and 2x growth multiple for a roadmap that has a couple cool ideas in it. 2x growth multiple suggests they might be able to turn that roadmap into about 1m vehicles in a few years before having to stop and mostly decide that growth is too much work. That sounds realistic to me.

 

[sundaymorning]

@GerberKawasaki
Now that Tesla has an positive eps estimate. Maybe $6-$8 per share over the next year. Every analyst MUST raise their estimates Jonas at MS got his note out first. Titled. “I’m just so wrong about Tesla”

Andrea James (@AndreaSJames) on Twitter

“All of a sudden $300 doesn’t seem that expensive.”

Did bonehead Adam Jonas raise his PT?

 

[uselesslogin]

I can't believe this amazing quarter far beyond my wildest expectations. I wish we had macro environment to back it up because I feel this is far bigger than Q1 2013. I can't see how analysts can avoid issuing upgrades now, this is some steak.

I am disappointed in the stock price movement after hours considering the report. But I would think these fundamentals would attract growth investors who needed to see solid profitability before investing. I can't think of any other company with so much growth ahead of it and now we are for certain this growth is in both the top and bottom line.

 

[jhm]

They might not run out of Medium Range and Long Range orders in 2019, so I think they'll delay the release of the Standard Range.

That's capitalism: sell the more expensive products first, if you have the choice.

Indeed. And I'd like to see Tesla bring $50k+ Model Y and Pickup to market before a $35k Model 3. Why not take the cream off the whole market first?

 

[Remus]

This is the Amazon moment! The time when the folks in Tesla gave a big finger to wall street when they are no longer under the mercy of the credit market.

Even if Tesla don't do anything, in 5 years people will realize the car easily lasts over 200,000 miles and appear dirt cheap with a purchase price of 45k.

Remember how toyota and honda made a killing? longevity and low operational cost. It's just a matter of time Tesla beat them at their own game.

 

[sundaymorning]

I can't believe this amazing quarter far beyond my wildest expectations. I wish we had macro environment to back it up because I feel this is far bigger than Q1 2013. I can't see how analysts can avoid issuing upgrades now, this is some steak.

I am disappointed in the stock price movement after hours considering the report. But I would think these fundamentals would attract growth investors who needed to see solid profitability before investing. I can't think of any other company with so much growth ahead of it and now we are for certain this growth is in both the top and bottom line.

Pro investors say sell-off is normal and offers a buying opportunity: 'Buffett's not panicking'

With the economy so strong I see this pullback as a buying opportunity.

 

[Intl Professor]

Like Roman mythology.. you remember your buddy Jupiter right? Think back. He was proud of that lightning bolt and his ability to capture the interests of mortal women. One day he came to Earth and found a woman named Maye and the rest his history. Makes for a nice story but alas... it's about as true as most autopilot theories.

This is repetitious. You are now mythmaking in a pejorative sense, by using an old myth (I guess non-sensical) to say Tesla's achievements are a myth. Skin deep analysis and no new insight. Musk uses the term "autopilot" in the same sense as commercial aircraft. It is machine control of the vehicle with constant supervision of the pilot. Is this a myth in aircraft as well?

Sound like common sense to me, but then I'm a common intellect often outpaced by others here.

 

[larmor]

Shortsville Exclusive: Braking News

In an effort to prop up sagging sales, Ford Motor Co. (F) leaked details of its fullsize 2020 EV Prototype after today's F-earnings Report:

• Electronics by Radio Shack
  
• Battery sells supplied by Kodak
• Bty Operating System by Microsoft BOB
  
• Custom Interiors by Sears
• Creep-mode included

EXCUSESIVE: Prototype EcoLine BEVan undergoing break testing:

View attachment 346785

And operating system pointing device sourced from xerox parc...

 

[M3Rider]

Btw, have there been a conclusion on why AH SP took off one minute before ER was released?
Do certain people get the news early and do insider trading? Seems like a reason for investigation.
I mean, why not buy during regular hours and instead drive the price up in AH not knowing what's in ER?

 

[Nb1277]

I can’t buy the stock until next week due to the wash sale rule. Should I buy calls tommorow or hold off and buy the equity? I’m very bullish (unfortunately sold at a loss in the midst of the SEC lawsuit...clearly not a smart move) and have serious FOMO but I’m concerned that getting into options tomorrow would be doing so potentially at a near term peak given macro issues. I should clarify I’m bullish LT and cautious ST due to macro concerns. If Tesla traded in a vacuum, different story but alas it does not. Just don’t want to rush in with calls and have premiums quickly deteriorate..but I badly want in

 

[Cosmacelf]

I know today didn’t have much TSLA news but can we keep neural network discussion in the neural network thread? There are guys who know what they are taking about there.

MOD:
Well, Moderators could simply move all those over to there....except that on this platform there is no such thing as "simply" move; rather, it's a complicated pain-in-the-butt operation. So as an alternative, Mods could hit the "Delete" button the number of times needed to teach such miscreants the error of their ways.

Also open to alternatives. Like: "Just Do The Right Thing, Numbnuts!"

 

[Foghat]

The demand metrics are off the charts.

The primary question is how fast are they going to effectively grow capacity in all dimensions of the business to meet this true demand.

It is laughable to hear the plea that Tesla needs to act as a “mature” company. They are extremely early in the growth story, they haven’t even scratched the surface yet and now people are calling for a “mature” company?


Let’s talk about the planning eventual maturity when they break 5 million cars a year and selling 100 GWs+ of solar and storage a year.

But, until then, it’s growth, growth, growth.

Model Y
Model 3 35k
Tesla Pick Up
Tesla Semi
Roadster
Tesla 25-30k
Tesla Uber-BnB
Tesla panels & roof, powerwall, powerpack
Tesla Energy Grid Services

And the list goes on and on...

 

[MikeC]

Oppenheimer Maintains Their Buy Rating on Tesla (TSLA) - Markets

PT raised from $385 to $418.

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

This is repetitious. You are now mythmaking in a pejorative sense, by using an old myth (I guess non-sensical) to say Tesla's achievements are a myth. Skin deep analysis and no new insight. Musk uses the term "autopilot" in the same sense as commercial aircraft. It is machine control of the vehicle with constant supervision of the pilot. Is this a myth in aircraft as well?

Sound like common sense to me, but then I'm a common intellect often outpaced by others here.

Nah I just think you are being crotchety and defensive and misread the entire conversation which you jumped into without much to add apparently.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Pro investors say sell-off is normal and offers a buying opportunity: 'Buffett's not panicking'

With the economy so strong I see this pullback as a buying opportunity.

Student loan debt is at crisis level. Housing sales is collapsing before our eyes as rising interest rates are killing the market which was already very overheated. The fact is the whole economy was already incredibly overheated due to the unnecessary nitro poured into the engine by the Trump tax cuts and when that engine blows it's going to completely trash the car. It doesn't help that Trump also pulled a gun out and shot some holes in the radiator with his trade war. So this economy is running dangerously hot and now the radiator is leaking all the coolant out too. Yes, I just used an ICE analogy. Deal with it.

 

[Buckminster]

One of the main take-aways for me is that HW3 is on track for end of Q1 – *this is crazy soon*. Andrej Karpathy talked about how the 10x increase allows for the deployment of a much larger (and more accurate) neural network. @neroden, I remember you posted this in the luvb2b-thread about your pessimism for FSD, and have been brewing on a response, so I hope it's cool with y'all than I clutter the celebration up with some attempted substance:



I think you might be missing some knowledge *collective gasp* about deep learning and the techniques Tesla and specifically Andrej Karpathy bring to the table. If one had to specify the problem specifically (as one normally does in CS), you would be right, that would take forever – but one of the major things deep learning accomplishes is *problem specification*. It figures out how to best approximate the problem itself.

One of the key factors in deep learning though – besides the specific architecture of the network – is figuring out how you can measure *when the network makes a mistake*. This is represented by the so-called "loss-function", which tells the network how wrong it was according to the desired output. It can then update the weights on each neuron to better approximate the desired result. The difficulty now though, is figuring out *when you are wrong*.

This, however, is quite a bit more simple than specifying self-driving - and shadow mode is exactly this. It enables training of a network against baseline "perfect" human behaviour. They do other stuff, of course, but shadow mode has the potential to be immensely helpful.

In case you guys haven't read Andrej Karpathys thoughts on software 2.0 (you might have seen his Autopilot lecture, which covers some of the same ground), this is a good primer – albeit a bit old:

Software 2.0 – Andrej Karpathy – Medium

Basically the FSD network will do something along these things:

Labeling each image > estimating 3D position of objects > figure out how to drive (okay simplifying here)

Each of these components are either independant software 2.0 processes, as described in the Medium post, or may even be merged into one network. I recall Andrej mentioning before that he believed "a single network to rule them all" was superior, but this was back when he was a phd and he was very coy about the techical details. He might have been working on some paper that never saw the light because he started working for Tesla. He might still believe this though – and the recent architecture improvements to the NN actually seem to suggest that indeed he still does.

Regardless, I think Tesla is (and has been for a long time) on the absolute forefront on applied deep learning and the sudden exponential increase that has happened to other problems attempted by deep learning, seem to be on the cusp of happening with FSD. Not that we'll be there in Q1 next year, but things seem to really be picking up steam, so I doubt it'll be a decade.

I agree with you and as Peter Thiel says - I wouldn't bet against Elon. Then again, I wouldn't bet against Neroden. This is like choosing between parents. Can I live with Uncle Factchecker instead?

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

Oppenheimer Maintains Their Buy Rating on Tesla (TSLA) - Markets

PT raised from $385 to $418.

Which he rounded down 2$ just to avoid the publicity

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Which he rounded down 2$ just to avoid the publicity

He could have just chosen $422. These analysts are so afraid of a little weed.

 

[Buckminster]

This is repetitious. You are now mythmaking in a pejorative sense, by using an old myth (I guess non-sensical) to say Tesla's achievements are a myth. Skin deep analysis and no new insight. Musk uses the term "autopilot" in the same sense as commercial aircraft. It is machine control of the vehicle with constant supervision of the pilot. Is this a myth in aircraft as well?

Sound like common sense to me, but then I'm a common intellect often outpaced by others here.

Don't be so hard on yourself Mr Prof. You are at least 50th percentile on this forum in brain capacity terms which is defo better than average in the realz. You should work on your inane jokes a bit more like me if you want to mix it up with the big boys. You got this!

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I can’t buy the stock until next week due to the wash sale rule. Should I buy calls tommorow or hold off and buy the equity? I’m very bullish (unfortunately sold at a loss in the midst of the SEC lawsuit...clearly not a smart move) and have serious FOMO but I’m concerned that getting into options tomorrow would be doing so potentially at a near term peak given macro issues. I should clarify I’m bullish LT and cautious ST due to macro concerns. If Tesla traded in a vacuum, different story but alas it does not. Just don’t want to rush in with calls and have premiums quickly deteriorate..but I badly want in

Screw the wash sale rule. Unless you have such staggering losses that no amount of gains can offset them on your taxes, just buy in if you think your gains will easily outweigh the tax write-off. Of course if you don't think this will happen, you should probably hold back.

Not an advice etc.