TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Interesting Correlation. With 25% GM the profit will be far ahead of Amazon.

Eric on Twitter

Exactly, Tesla is generating twice as much cash from revenue as Amazon, and Tesla is growing into a new EV market that is 10-30 times larger than Apple's markets (!): global automotive is 2-3 trillion dollars annual - and well above 10 trillion dollars with Energy, Autonomy and Ridesharing included, a substantial percentage of world GDP.

My highest, top end valuation for $TSLA, if everything goes perfectly in the next 5-15 years and every competitor messes up, has thus six digits per share.

Which is obviously and admittedly a low probability outcome at this stage, but between $330 and that figure there's a lot of pathways to really big numbers.

 

[strangecosmos]

Being a fan or supporter of a company doesn’t mean supporting 100% of its actions 100% of the time, or only saying 100% positive things about it 100% of the time.

I’m surprised Electrek is getting so much criticism because it’s a Tesla fan/investor site that virtually never questions or criticizes anything Tesla says or does. Electrek acts like it’s Tesla PR. And Fred has a big conflict of interest because he owns TSLA and gets referral prizes like a free 2020 Roadster. So, Electrek is now getting flak for publishing one critical thing?

CleanTechnica is like Electrek but seemingly even more extreme. It recently published an honest-to-God conspiracy theory attributing negative Tesla articles to a secret plot (based on as little evidence as any other conspiracy theory). I have really enjoyed some of CleanTechnica’s technical articles and I respected what they were doing, but for me it really jumped the shark with the conspiracy theory.

Maybe this is the corrupting influence of money... When you have a lot of money invested in a stock, and you obsessively watch the stock price day by day, hour by hour, minute by minute... You become obsessed with making money and you get angry at anyone you perceive as getting in the way of you making money.

Throw in some pseudoscience like technical trading, and that’s just more fuel for the fire.

 

[Krugerrand]

Well maybe now Elon will learn a lesson that they are a big boy company now and will need to adjust prices more gradually. Traditional automakers get around with messing around their prices continuously because of the obfuscation of rebates, incentives, discounted options, and of course the fact that no one actually knows the actual cost of the vehicle except the stealership and they won't tell anyone on pain of death. Tesla uses this direct sales model, so everyone can see all the historical and current prices of everything back to the beginning of time. They will need to be more careful going forward with really big price changes and do them gradually and without just telling people who have already supported the mission and paid money to just eat it.

It's too bad Fred Lambert only cares about himself because by all rights anyone who has already paid extra for AWD, either $1k or $2k, also deserve a refund for exactly the same reasons that P3D owners can get a $5k refund.

So basically you’re saying Tesla needs to be less transparent about pricing and behave more like other OEMs. Yes, that’s what you just said. To be a big boy company they need to behave like the other OEMs and obfuscate pricing more because that’s how it’s done. Try and trick people, be sly, underhanded.

What a kick it is to read Tesla be praised for being different and then condemned for those differences. People want change except when they don’t, when it doesn’t benefit them, when it upsets their sensibilities, when they can’t profit from it in some when, when it’s too different, when someone with a bit of an audience makes a stink to rile people up.

Then when Tesla listens to the complaint and graciously offers an alternative in an attempt to appease the offended parties and be as fair as possible that’s wrong too.

I think I might have just gotten to the point where we aren’t worth the effort to save.

 

[ZeApelido]

I didn't get SpaceX thrusters with my free Roadster Elon this is so unfair.
Mod: apparently fake quote, in case anyone thinks it is real. --ggr

Woah, calm down Freddy.

 

[Fact Checking]

Throw in some pseudoscience like technical trading,

Technical trading is not pseudoscience. Some of the best traders combine technical setups with research on fundamentals.

Since fundamentals almost always override the technical setups it's an entirely expected outcome that if you measure the success rate of pure technical trading you won't get returns above market rates.

But to over-generalize that into a blanket statement that technical trading is pseudoscience is extremely unscientific and frankly rather naive as well.

 

[strangecosmos]

Which then that goes to my original statement, that you are requiring Tesla Network to make a profitable company profitable...

It’s just a simple thought experiment. It’s not my real prediction of what’s going to happen.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Interesting Correlation. With 25% GM the profit will be far ahead of Amazon.

Eric on Twitter

Thanks for the link. Interesting 7-yr revenue growth summary in this graph:

 

[EinSV]

Thanks for the link. Interesting 7-yr SP projection in this graph:

View attachment 347457

For an even more impressive chart, add in a projection for Year 8 -- Tesla's 2018 revenue should be about $21.2B assuming Q4 revenue of $7B -- just a bit higher than Q3's $6.8B.

 

[Krugerrand]

Would you truly feel nothing if you took delivery of a car at 2:15PM and then found out at 2:30PM your identical car was $5000 cheaper?

We all agree that we got what we paid for. But it’s more than logic.

It’s managing perception and human emotions.

Tesla has to be better at this.

Hope this makes sense.

Actually, people need to be better. Tesla is trying to save you and your kin. Scream loud enough and long enough and maybe Elon will give up for the first time in his life and toss the end of the rope back at you and let the current carry you out into the ocean. I’m sure you’ll feel justified then.

Yet another prime example of money being the root of all evil.

To be fair, I’ll answer your question and I’ll answer it truthfully: It depends. If I’m having a bad day, currently stressed about money in general, or have forgotten that it happens every single minute of day somewhere in NA on dealership lots; then yes I’m having a bird for a few seconds until I get my head on straight.

 

[strangecosmos]

Technical trading is not pseudoscience. Some of the best traders combine technical setups with research on fundamentals.

Since fundamentals almost always override the technical setups it's an entirely expected outcome that if you measure the success rate of pure technical trading you won't get returns above market rates.

But to over-generalize that into a blanket statement that technical trading is pseudoscience is extremely unscientific and frankly rather naive as well.

All the research I’ve seen has found that traditional technical trading strategies performed no better than chance, after accounting for data snooping. Given enough traders, some will attain alpha by sheer chance, but that doesn’t mean technical trading actually performs better than just trading at random. Even more traders will claim to attain alpha when they really don’t. To get Reddit karma, or to sell a newsletter or online course, or to generate YouTube ad impressions.

There was also this study that found the same patterns that traditional technical analysis claim are predictive future price movements, such as resistance levels, also appear in completely random data. So, those patterns probably don’t mean anything.

Some advanced, non-traditional technical trading stategies employed by quant firms or high-frequency trading algorithms might work for as long as they remain secret. Any strategy that’s public and works will be copied by others, including high-frequency algos, until all the alpha is arbitraged away. So if it’s the kind of thing that amateur investors know about, then it probably doesn’t work.

A weird thing I stumbled upon when reading about this stuff was the crossover between technical analysis and astrology.

P.S. Do you think GAAP accounting is nonsense that only short sellers use?

 

[stef]

Tesla to eliminate some paint options to increase production efficiency, gives last chance to order

For those with shorts memory, read again the last sentence of this article.
I think Tesla should ask him to return his obsidian black car.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Apropos of nothing whatsoever, I take this moment to thank the hardworking coders who created the 'Ignore' button. Thank you.

 

[KarenRei]

. So, Electrek is now getting flak for publishing one critical thing?

If you think Electrek is taking flak for publishing "one critical thing", you haven't been paying attention.

 

[Fact Checking]

Good grief... This is not true.

You talk about P/E ratios or GAAP accounting in this thread, and people think you’re a hater.

You misunderstood the criticism you got.

GAAP accounting has its role, and we are discussing GAAP all the time here when making arguments about Teslas financial reports.

GAAP also has its limitations, the biggest one is that for high-tech companies it significantly skews the balance sheet and the income sheet:

• GAAP doesn't recognize some of the highest value assets Tesla owns, such as AutoPilot, Supercharger network value, brand value or strength of the customer base.
• GAAP also underestimates the true income position of Tesla by requiring the expensing of stock compensation.
• GAAP also overestimates liabilities in several ways:
  • for example Tesla is carrying hundreds of millions of dollars of resale guarantees, which get paid out in less than 1% of the cases. So 99% of that liability is an accounting fiction.
  • another one is inventory value of already sold cars being shipped to customers, which only get accounted at 70% cash value under GAAP. But only a very low percentage of deliveries are refused, so the true value is more like 98%.
• Per GAAP metrics Tesla had negative working capital for much of its recent corporate history - do you really believe that this meant that Tesla didn't have enough cash to operate in the next 3-6 months?

I.e. GAAP metrics are a particularly poor choice when valuing companies with significant intellectual property or other intangible assets, and for companies that have significant equity plans for employees - such as Tesla.

So when in your comment you used GAAP income to value Tesla, which is a bogus, invalid, nonsensical valuation model for Tesla and many other high-tech companies, you got called out for that, and rightfully so.

 

[djgarrett21]

Tesla to eliminate some paint options to increase production efficiency, gives last chance to order

For those with shorts memory, read again the last sentence of this article.
I think Tesla should ask him to return his obsidian black car.

All sorts of hypocrisy from that guy. Tesla/Elon can do almost no wrong until a price change bites him in the a$$.

 

[azaz]

Being a fan or supporter of a company doesn’t mean supporting 100% of its actions 100% of the time, or only saying 100% positive things about it 100% of the time.

I’m surprised Electrek is getting so much criticism because it’s a Tesla fan/investor site that virtually never questions or criticizes anything Tesla says or does. Electrek acts like it’s Tesla PR. And Fred has a big conflict of interest because he owns TSLA and gets referral prizes like a free 2020 Roadster. So, Electrek is now getting flak for publishing one critical thing?

CleanTechnica is like Electrek but seemingly even more extreme. It recently published an honest-to-God conspiracy theory attributing negative Tesla articles to a secret plot (based on as little evidence as any other conspiracy theory). I have really enjoyed some of CleanTechnica’s technical articles and I respected what they were doing, but for me it really jumped the shark with the conspiracy theory.

Maybe this is the corrupting influence of money... When you have a lot of money invested in a stock, and you obsessively watch the stock price day by day, hour by hour, minute by minute... You become obsessed with making money and you get angry at anyone you perceive as getting in the way of you making money.

Throw in some pseudoscience like technical trading, and that’s just more fuel for the fire.

A lot of posters here believe that conspiracy theory lol

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla to eliminate some paint options to increase production efficiency, gives last chance to order

For those with shorts memory, read again the last sentence of this article.
I think Tesla should ask him to return his obsidian black car.

Don't be shy, stef. Members want to know. So here are the last 2 lines by Fickle Freddy:

While it’s a bummer for customers, it would be hard to complain if it actually helps Tesla producing and delivering cars quicker, which has also been a problem.

I won’t be complaining since it actually increases the value of my Obsidian Black Model 3. Thanks Tesla.

We had a name for that *sugar* in the Army: Buddy F*****r

 

[Pezpunk]

Technical trading is not pseudoscience.

yes it is. pure 100% unadulterated BS.

 

[strangecosmos]

I.e. GAAP metrics are a particularly poor choice when valuing companies with significant intellectual property or other intangible assets, and for companies that have significant equity plans for employees - such as Tesla.

What metrics should be used, then? Free cash flow? EBITDA?

 

[avoigt]

1. 
   Verified account 11h11 hours ago
   Didn’t you get free Supercharging for life? Current buyers don’t get that.
   
   69 replies21 retweets788 likes
   
2. 
   
   Verified account 11h11 hours ago
   That’s not worth $5K. I opted for my Performance without PUP but I feel bad for anyone who paid. That sucks.

Not worth $5k? Quick math about the value of free SupperCharger here in Germany.

Using actual gas payment receipt in front of me. Caution this calculation will be different for other Europeans with different prices and gas consumption cars. Located in Germany and use the most expensive Gas Premium Super so far. Supposed to have more range and cleaner... for the once who still believe them....

For 650 km (400 mi) I paid 81€ (92$) last week. Yes, Europe is more expensive than NA and my car was ( I just sold it) not the most efficient.

Tesla aims for 1m miles or 1.6m km for the engine and guarantees unlimited battery for the high end S.

Using the above cost per gas this would mean that in the (unlikely) case you use only SC for the full distance of 1 m mile costs of: €124 k ($ 128k) I had to make the calculation trice because I could not believe my eyes. If you turn it around you can calculate after 40k m you got your €5k back and after that you make money. .

So costs for life long SC free of charge is $ 5k and in that scenario I get a return of +25 times that amount. In fact with that savings alone I can buy myself 1 or two new Teslas. Even if you calculate cheaper gas prices and a car with lower consumption its still a crazy good deal.

Of course most people will not run the car 1 m miles but make the calculation with 500 k miles or less and its still a steal. Also it will keep the resales value high.

Feel good that I sold my car waiting for the 3. Happy to pay €5k for free SC if the allow me to. Would do it if it would be more as well.

P.S. no doubt the calculation is different in the US but should be still a good deal in most cases.