TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[electracity]

All sorts of hypocrisy from that guy. Tesla/Elon can do almost no wrong until a price change bites him in the a$$.

Fred's not a reporter, he's a blogger. Posts on Electrek obviously are not attempts at objectivity. Their purpose is to collect clicks from the congregation. Fred is literally paid by click.

 

[Fact Checking]

All the research I’ve seen has found that traditional technical trading strategies performed no better than chance, after accounting for data snooping.

That's what I said too, and it's an unsurprising result: in the hierarchy of price discovery forces fundamentals are much stronger in the medium and long run than technical levels, and often have significant short term effects too.

So pure technical trading, ignoring fundamentals, is only something that provides liquidity to smart fundamental traders.

What is done instead is to combine good fundamentals based trading with technical trading. That is wildly profitable, but I doubt you'll find studies on that, because talking about it automatically closes much of the mispricing...

Most of the market behavioral research papers I've read are extremely naive and ignorant about the realities of markets.

It's also not true that the only profitable technical trading strategy is data snooping - having superior latency to most market participants is another reliably profitable method.

 

[TradingInvest]

Hi,

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't these new shares created separately for Elon by Tesla, rather than him buying $20M worth of TSLA on NASDAQ?

That way, the $20M goes to Tesla directly to compensate for the FCF impact of paying their $20M SEC fine. Otherwise, the money goes to the current owner of the shares.

So Monday's buy by Elon shouldn't affect the market, beyond the sentiment and goodwill PR from his act to protect the value of existing shares.

I agree with you. Tesla will issue $20M shares, Elon will buy these shares at market price. I think it's a symbolic gesture so that Tesla's cash position is not negatively impacted by this episode. Tesla's float will be negatively impacted by 0.04%. I think in the end, this episode will help all long term investors by a lot.

What I meant in my original post is that in addition to the $20M purchase, Elon probably will buy more shares from the open market. If I were him, I would buy a lot more shares from the open market.

 

[Buckminster]

Exactly, Tesla is generating twice as much cash from revenue as Amazon, and Tesla is growing into a new EV market that is 10-30 times larger than Apple's markets (!): global automotive is 2-3 trillion dollars annual - and well above 10 trillion dollars with Energy, Autonomy and Ridesharing included, a substantial percentage of world GDP.

My highest, top end valuation for $TSLA, if everything goes perfectly in the next 5-15 years and all competitors mess up, has thus six digits per share.

Which is obviously and admittedly a low probability outcome at this stage, but between $330 and that figure there's a lot of pathways to really big numbers.

You are amazeballs! You make 007 style super bull estimates in a scientific yet succinct manner whilst building a Neroden style aura around you. Impressed I am.
Your statements have and will continue to have a tangible impact on SP along with many others here. Please keep saving the world so that I can stop making these corny lines..

I know, I just can't stop myself from ruining my almost profound statements with a silly line at the end. I promise to stop them once I receive exoneration (approx SP of $450).

 

[strangecosmos]

That's what I said too, and it's an unsurprising result: in the hierarchy of price discovery forces fundamentals are much stronger in the medium and long run than technical levels.

So pure technical trading, ignoring fundamentals, is only something that provides liquidity to smart fundamental traders.

The technical trading rules don’t work in the short-term, though.

What is done instead is to combine good fundamentals based trading with technical trading. That is wildly profitable, but I doubt you'll find studies on that, because talking about it automatically closes much of the mispricing...

How do you know it’s wildly profitable if people don’t talk about it?

It's also not true that the only profitable technical trading strategy is data snooping - having superior latency to most market participants is another reliably profitable method.

Data snooping isn’t a trading strategy, it’s a form of bias in statistics.

I wouldn’t describe front-running orders by having lower latency as a form of technical analysis. You aren’t looking at past price data to predict price. It’s more like arbitrage or price gouging. There is no real “analysis”, just speed.

 

[djgarrett21]

Fred's not a reporter, he's a blogger. Posts on Electrek obviously are not attempts at objectivity. Their purpose is to collect clicks from the congregation. Fred is literally paid by click.

I'm under no delusion that Fred is a reporter or Electrek is a news site.

Fred is arguably Tesla's #1 evangelist and Electrek is what it is mainly because Tesla leaks info to them. They have access nobody else does.

So I find it a bit humorous when the the top writer for Tesla's de-facto propaganda department gets in a huff because Tesla made a change and he didn't get advance notice.

My dog will bark at my wife when she want's food because she knows my wife will give it to her. For me she waits patiently by her bowl because she knows that behavior will get her nowhere.

I'm really surprised Elon hasn't put Fred in his place.

 

[Artful Dodger]

You are amazeballs! You make 007 style super bull estimates in a scientific yet succinct manner whilst building a Neroden style aura around you. Impressed I am.

Yeah yeah, but did you see his panel gaps?

 

[strangecosmos]

Your statements have and will continue to have a tangible impact on SP along with many others here.

Given that ~85% of Tesla stock is owned by insiders (e.g. Elon, JB, Deepak) and institutions (e.g. T. Rowe Price, Fidelity, Bailie Gifford), I don’t know if retail investors have much impact on price. Especially a small number of retail investors on TMC.

 

[Buckminster]

Yeah yeah, but did you see his panel gaps?

 

[elasalle]

Would you truly feel nothing if you took delivery of a car at 2:15PM and then found out at 2:30PM your identical car was $5000 cheaper?

We all agree that we got what we paid for. But it’s more than logic.

It’s managing perception and human emotions.

Tesla has to be better at this.

Hope this makes sense.

Feel for you man.

I don't think random price changes are a good thing. Maybe inventory prices need to be kept the same for one quarter and then change the next - I think that would be an acceptable option for all. ~ cheers

 

[elasalle]

Not often you see these two on the same side of a topic:

View attachment 347414

I had the same though.

If "Funding Secured" was trouble, then "Production Hell" on twitter is the 2 word proof that is needed to resolve this FBI issue ..

 

[ggr]

While it’s a nice thought, Gali dissuaded me that a short squeeze is likely. There are two major differences between 2013 and 2018:

• 16 days to cover in 2013 vs. 6.5 days to cover in 2018
• ~45-85% cost to borrow in 2013 vs. ~5% cost to borrow in 2018

The high cost to borrow can be one of the consequences of the short squeeze, it isn't necessarily a cause.

 

[elasalle]

Given that ~85% of Tesla stock is owned by insiders (e.g. Elon, JB, Deepak) and institutions (e.g. T. Rowe Price, Fidelity, Bailie Gifford), I don’t know if retail investors have much impact on price. Especially a small number of retail investors on TMC.

TMC has impact in other ways. Without TMC, more than half of retail investors would have folded their positions based on the constant bashing of Tesla by MMD. With TMC, folks have figured out and got enlightened on how all this corruption works.

Also, TMC members are vocal on other social platforms, fighting the FUD.
A TMC contributor runs a website and has produced enough charts to cause Lefty to fold, along with holding other media accountable

So don't under estimate it's power

 

[Fact Checking]

Data snooping isn’t a trading strategy, it’s a form of bias in statistics.

Now I understand what you meant when you said "after accounting for data snooping".

BTW., "data snooping" is both: it is also a profitable trading method.

I wouldn’t describe front-running orders by having lower latency a form of technical analysis. You aren’t looking at price data to predict price. It’s more like arbitrage or price gouging.

Most HFT algorithms are of course looking at the price: order flow is an important and crutial filter to not perform arbitrage trades in certain cases, and to size their orders when they do.

(Many HFT firms/traders that didn't take price action seriously went bankrupt in the 2010 Flash Crash.)

Anyway, you clearly don't seem to know what you are talking about, so that's the extent I'm going to discuss this topic with you.

 

[winfield100]

I noticed some people using technical analysis in this thread, so I wanted to re-post something I wrote on that topic in another thread.

Academic research finds that most daily price movements are random....... like Warren Buffett for value investing?
........ That would of course apply to technical trading methods.

@strangecosmos / Trent eady
investing vs trading, so the answer seems to be, don't trade, invest for the long term
AAPL = ~$11,000+/share (split adjusted)
MSFT = ~$30,000+/share (split adjusted)

If you look at the stock price since 6/30/2017, it has gone to heck.
If you look at the Accumulation/Distr

i
distribution line,
a lot of somebodies have quietly been buying/lowering their basis by about 170,000,000 shares, and when TSLA joins the S&P and the passive funds _have_ to buy in, there should be a melt up, because i'm not selling my 0.0000013% of the outstanding TSLA shares, until it hits >$10,000/share, and then only 1 or 2
I use TA, not to trade, but as a confirmatory of my thesis, of TSLA being a $1 Trillion company in the sometime future.

 

[elasalle]

I'm under no delusion that Fred is a reporter or Electrek is a news site.

Fred is arguably Tesla's #1 evangelist and Electrek is what it is mainly because Tesla leaks info to them. They have access nobody else does.

So I find it a bit humorous when the the top writer for Tesla's de-facto propaganda department gets in a huff because Tesla made a change and he didn't get advance notice.

My dog will bark at my wife when she want's food because she knows my wife will give it to her. For me she waits patiently by her bowl because she knows that behavior will get her nowhere.

I'm really surprised Elon hasn't put Fred in his place.

If Tesla really does leak info to it, then now might be high time to just stop doing that .. I'm sure CleanTechnica, Teslarati, InsideEv wouldn't mind filling that spot

 

[AudubonB]

@strangecosmos i'm not selling my 0.0000013% of the outstanding TSLA shares

I've run the numbers three times, and they come up the same. You own 2.21 shares.

I say you're sandbagging.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

No, it's attached to the car and its transferrable.

Telsa tried to make the change you suggest in Jan 2017, but quickly recinded the policy due to massive unpopularity.

They changed it after that. My 2018 spec sheet says “Free unlimited supercharging will only apply to the original vehicle owner and only for the duration of original vehicle ownership.”

 

[Lessmog]

Right. I have, there are three in my town. You don't know what to do when you encounter one, do you?

I do, because it's actually documented. And prescribed by law. A "thanks for good driving" prize to the first other person on this board who knows what it is. (Betcha nobody in Tesla's self-driving team knows.) You're gonna laugh when you find out.



It wasn't anything I didn't already know and it wasn't relevant. But I'll repeat myself for those, like you, who haven't gotten the point yet.

It is simply not useful to make an "average driver" car. Psychologically, people won't accept it: we have documentation that people will demand that an autonomous car be *substantially better* than an average driver; for some reason people are way more unhappy if hurt by a mediocre-competence robot than by a mediocre-competence human. Musk knows this, and has quoted a need to be 10 times better and 100 times better at various times. You will not get this by replicating average. It may reduce crashes if deployed as "enhanced driver assistance" (people will accept it if there's a driver to blame) but it will never be allowed as "full self driving".

As I still have day job, some days, my backlog on this thread is as ~1700 posts, so apologies for being en retard!
Surprisingly I haven't seen any response from Italy or Spain yet: USE THE FLIPPIN HORN !!11 and/or flash if dark.

 

[avoigt]

TMC has impact in other ways. Without TMC, more than half of retail investors would have folded their positions based on the constant bashing of Tesla by MMD. With TMC, folks have figured out and got enlightened on how all this corruption works.

Also, TMC members are vocal on other social platforms, fighting the FUD.
A TMC contributor runs a website and has produced enough charts to cause Lefty to fold, along with holding other media accountable

So don't under estimate it's power

Exactly, may be the force with us Yedis's