TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[TradingInvest]

Anyone else tested the latest software "Navigate on Autopilot"? Really love it.

 

[AudubonB]

Yes, and it's very good....tho I chickened out when it didn't seem to want to slow down for the "As Per Navigation" left turn. But: Neroden et al should be happy: you can throw Rear Camera back to the top of the screen! (Almost: a sliver of Map remains above it. But Music goes below, where it belongs).

 

[davecolene0606]

Anyone else tested the latest software "Navigate on Autopilot"? Really love it.

Yup,

Amazing and telling of massive improvement in a short period of time leading to FSD followed by demonstrable statisticaly valid examples of elimination of road deaths in significant numbers.

Fire Away!

 

[printf42]

Elon has been missing from Twitter for almost 30 hours now.
Really no one else is worring about it?

 

[SpaceCash]

Elon has been missing from Twitter for almost 30 hours now.
Really no one else is worring about it?

He's fine he's probably just out doing space stuff

 

[EVNow]

He's fine he's probably just out doing space stuff

Is that same as being spaced out ?

 

[printf42]

He's fine he's probably just out doing space stuff

I know he would be fine, I am worry he’s having too much fun with rocket stuff then come back tweet some *sugar* about Tesla.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Elon has been missing from Twitter for almost 30 hours now.
Really no one else is worring about it?

He said he was taking a three day break recently.

 

[avoigt]

So are predicting a Q4 GAAP profit of $1B-$1.5B?

No concrete number predicted on my side other than what I wrote.

 

[Carl Raymond]

So are predicting a Q4 GAAP profit of $1B-$1.5B?

Anywhere close enough to the billion mark that the word "billion" gets repeated often near the words "profit" and "Tesla" will do nicely. The decimal point and anything after is just noise to most people.

We will hear "more than a billion" or "close to a billion". Equivalent to most ears.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

@jimmy_d gave a great interview with Rob Maurer on his speculation about Autopilot. An hour+ long informative interview. I learned a ton. Thanks Jimmy!

Tesla Daily Podcast

I second that most strongly. Anyone not listening to that podcast is missing out, and that is the best episode so far. Goes deep into the weeds, but I was able to follow it without an engineering background.

 

[RobStark]

GAAP Profit/Loss
Q1 -$710M
Q2 -$712M
Q3 + $312M

Total -$1.110M
Need Q4 +$1.110M to break even.

 

[SpaceCash]

GAAP Profit/Loss
Q1 -$710M
Q2 -$712M
Q3 + $312M

Total -$1.110M
Need Q4 +$1.110M to break even.

Wait that seems like an exceedingly easy to smash goal.
Pretty straightforward when you put it that way.

 

[RobStark]

Wait that seems like an exceedingly easy to smash goal.
Pretty straightforward when you put it that way.

You don't even need a CEO to do it!

 

[Carl Raymond]

I second that most strongly. Anyone not listening to that podcast is missing out, and that is the best episode so far. Goes deep into the weeds, but I was able to follow it without an engineering background.

Sounds like we'll be hearing more about unified two frame processing in due course. Now that it's out from under wraps, I hope the genius behind it gets proper credit in the history books, be it Musk, Karpathy or another.

Interview: Neural Networks & Autopilot V9 With Jimmy_d (10.29.18) - TechCast Daily

 

[Carl Raymond]

Sounds like we'll be hearing more about unified two frame processing in due course. Now that it's out from under wraps, I hope the genius behind it gets proper credit in the history books, be it Musk, Karpathy or another.

Interview: Neural Networks & Autopilot V9 With Jimmy_d (10.29.18) - TechCast Daily

I am reminded of that experiment where they get volunteers to wear image inverting glasses for several days - so sky and ground flip. Eventually the brain adjusts to unflip the image and they see the world as before.

Tesla worked out that so long as the learning is done on the same input as the processing, the nature of that input can be anything - unified, multicolour, two frame, whatever - use the richest set - if there's a clue there that reveals the true nature of the environment, the neural net will spot it (with enough training and enough processing). That's my take on it.

 

[Fact Checking]

GAAP Profit/Loss
Q1 -$710M
Q2 -$712M
Q3 + $312M

Total -$1.110M
Need Q4 +$1.110M to break even.

Seems unlikely due to the still high capex related depreciation & amortization costs, also, I probably missed some context, what would be the motivation?

• S&P 500 inclusion requires four profitable quarters in a row by some sources, five by others, i.e. it would happen around this time next year or early 2020. Current inclusion criteria used by the S&P 500 committee seem to be somewhat opaque, but I don't think there's a rule to have a profitable year, is there?
  
• Posting too much profit just increases taxable income and taxes - which Tesla could have invested into growth instead.
• Most valuation metrics use a rolling metric of quarterly results, with no real notion of the financial year. So for example TTM is trailing-twelve-months.

The 'Tesla never had a profitable year' meme, while technically still true, has died with the Q3 results - and shorts have no inhibitions to lie or mislead about Tesla, so they'll just make up new false memes.

Nor does it really matter, because claiming at this point that Tesla is not profitable is a self-defeating argument, like it was to claim in 2008 that the iPhone is a dud.

 

[SpaceCash]

I am reminded of that experiment where they get volunteers to wear image inverting glasses for several days - so sky and ground flip. Eventually the brain adjusts to unflip the image and they see the world as before.

Tesla worked out that so long as the learning is done on the same input as the processing, the nature of that input can be anything - unified, multicolour, two frame, whatever - use the richest set - if there's a clue there that reveals the true nature of the environment, the neural net will spot it (with enough training and enough processing). That's my take on it.

Is it not becoming clear that Tesla has made an extremely significant tech breakthrough with this technology? A breakthrough that is probably in itself worth many billions when applied?

I feel this is yet another largely unnoticed moat TSLA has, and is not valued in whatsoever.

 

[Tslynk67]

Excuse me, I interrupt this excellent conversation to share my exuberance of V9 "Pilot to Navigation" just experienced. OMFG!

$TSLA is going to shoot straight up this Thanksgiving! This isn't like past upgrades. This car is in control, better maps/details and regen braking. The experience was flawless entrance to exit, much smoother transitions and steering, but not for the faint hearted (not at first) it's almost overwhelming. E-Ticket... GO AGAIN!

Today was perfect! Thank you Tesla (and that one guy that still works there).

Continue...

AFAIK, rest of the World didn't even receive the updated maps yet, I certainly haven't, and this is what, one year after they rolled-out in the USA. I would assume V9 is reliant on these maps and I don't see it coming to use very soon. Which is annoying to say the least.

 

[hobbes]

Call me an old fart, but +20mph seems excessive. +10km/h or mph would be sufficient stimulus without turning the freeways into a racetrack. Basically travel the same speed most people drive at now, but without the stress of landing a ticket.

Gave you a funny because here in Germany speed differences often are *much* greater. But I (and scientists looking at efficiency of traffic flow and safety) agree that it is better to keep them low - and much more relaxed if when passing, you don´t have to expect someone coming from behind at 50mph faster than you.