TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[j6Lpi429@3j]

In fact that wouldn't be FSD as it's not applicable in Europe, Asia or anywhere else. Road systems are indeed way more complex in medieval towns that have true BLIND corners that are just wide enough for one small vehicle to pass through at the apex of the bend (the rest of the road is two lanes).

This is what many people used to californian style roads do not understand./ I live in rural UK. In my trip to the nearby town I will drive down 50% single-lane roads with zero road markings, and thick hedges on both sides. I will likely encounter a few mini-roundabouts (they are EVERYWHERE in the UK), and probably at least one dead badger in the road. Its pretty likely there will be pedestrians in the road at some point, and I may well have to slowly drive around some people riding horses.

At its ABSOLUTE widest, there is no room for me to pass a cyclist safely if there is a car coming in the opposite direction.

Needless to say cell signal is intermittent at best along this entire route.

FSD on the streets of LA is one thing. FSD in the snow where I live is likely several decades away, and I say that as a professional computer programmer with huge faith in Tesla.

 

[brian45011]

• Posting too much profit just increases taxable income and taxes - which Tesla could have invested into growth instead..

Tesla has billions of US tax losses to carry forward.

 

[brian45011]

Heads have rolled at SpaceX.

Musk shakes up SpaceX in race to make satellite launch window: sources | Reuters

How does this affect the Tesla Network?

 

[Ellec]

Wondering if Tesla will hold off initiating Euro GF and wait for a struggling legacy automaker to sell it a plant on the cheap?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Heads have rolled at SpaceX.

Musk shakes up SpaceX in race to make satellite launch window: sources | Reuters

How does this affect the Tesla Network?

It doesn't. Starlink is about space money.

 

[FS_FRA]

Wondering if Tesla will hold off initiating Euro GF and wait for a struggling legacy automaker to sell it a plant on the cheap?

Don't think that makes sense. Too much political will to keep auto industry here afloat* - meaning it will take too long and Euro GF I believe is a sooner, rather than later agenda item...

Also, now that they know how to build a GF (and China GF will be further learning) surely it will be more efficient to build off of a blank sheet of paper, than try to re-purpose an existing ICE plant.

* and all the shenanigans that accompany any such move

 

[dw4ngg]

It doesn't. Starlink is about space money.

Disagree - it affects Tesla network connectivity

 

[Zaxxon]

Disagree - it affects Tesla network connectivity

Not anytime soon, according to Musk on a prior conference call.

And that article notes that SpaceX seems to be on schedule with StarLink. The re-org was to keep it that way, not because of actual timeline issues.

 

[Ellec]

Starlink could become the worlds biggest internet provider. Worldwide 5G coverage for $30 a month x 1 billion people.

 

[mongo]

Disagree - it affects Tesla network connectivity

In response to a question about that Musk said the antennas are too large to put on on cars. Focus is underserved areas and/or back haul.

(He didn't say they were too large for semis or vans or pickups though )

If FSD is working properly, cell service is sufficient to provide telemetry/ requests for TN.

Starlink could become the worlds biggest internet provider. Worldwide 5G coverage for $30 a month x 1 billion people.

(Depending if you meant 5G as cellular vs speed) Antennas deffinatly too big for a person, but could provide the backbone to a remote cellular network.

 

[copyhacker]

I don't think this would scale economically at all – unless maybe, you'd figure out a very sensible way to crowdsolve it.

I don’t necessarily think Tesla will do this, but it’s an interesting problem to think about, so I’ll take a crack.

When you are Supercharging, you can opt in to be a remote driver and get your charge session gratis (maybe even rack up extra credits). A remote drive request comes in. If you accept, your screen shows some condensed version of the other car’s camera feed, and your car’s controls (steering, pedals, gearshift, turn signals) link to the other car. You drive it just far enough to get that car back to a place where FSD can take over.

The two immediately obvious obstacles are network latency and liability. Latency can be worked around with an Extreme Chill Mode on the subject car (similar to Summon). Liability I dunno about. Maybe Tesla would have to extend their foray into the insurance business.

ETA:

In any case, like @Fact Checking was getting at, I do think FSD should be judged operational not in an Actual Level 5 sense, but rather the way we think about web server uptime: as a number of 9s in the success percentage. Once you get to 90% then 99, 99.9, 99.99, etc are gravy.

 

[Ellec]

In response to a question about that Musk said the antennas are too large to put on on cars. Focus is underserved areas and/or back haul.

(He didn't say they were too large for semis or vans or pickups though )

If FSD is working properly, cell service is sufficient to provide telemetry/ requests for TN.



(Depending if you meant 5G as cellular vs speed) Antennas deffinatly too big for a person, but could provide the backbone to a remote cellular network.

The satellites are the backbone, SpaceX will utilise current cellular towers and build out their own.

 

[UncaNed]

Elon Musk himself: Elon Musk says Tesla likely to build an all-electric cargo van on its… (link to an Electrek article on archive.is (Fred doesn't get the clicks))



I see tons of Ford Transits (and Transit Connects, but that's something smaller), and I used to see a fair amount of Mercedes Sprinters (although the Transit being cheaper displaced them). Note that the vans mostly get sold through fleet sales, so things may look very different for how they're sold.

And, it'll likely be a simple variant of the pickup, so it could probably be released alongside it.

I would have MUCH PREFERRED a cargo van instead of my model X.

 

[mongo]

The satellites are the backbone, SpaceX will utilise current cellular towers and build out their own.

Yah! Skid with powerpack and solar along with antennas airlifted to remote sites. Boom! instant connectivity.
(Or antennas plus panel plus powerwall, easy to trek anywhere)

Edit: not just developing areas, Tau and Hawaii are prime locations for the data side along with the polar latitudes.

 

[Fact Checking]

Tesla has billions of US tax losses to carry forward.

Indeed, U.S. rules for corporate tax carry-forward appear to be pretty generous:

"Net operating losses arising in tax years beginning before 2018 may offset 100% of taxable income, and may be carried back two years or forward 20 years. Net operating losses arising in tax years beginning 2018 or later may offset up to 80% of taxable income in the year applied, with excess losses carried forward indefinitely."​

Nevertheless I'd expect Tesla to follow the Amazon growth model, with good cash flow but only borderline profitability, to allow maximum reinvestment speed.

 

[Unpilot]

Pre-market looks nice...hope it is not a head-fake.

 

[Unpilot]

Pre-market looks nice...hope it is not a head-fake.

Well from up 4 to down almost 1...sigh

 

[Chickenlittle]

Visited the local showroom (no service or delivery capability) today. One M3 on the floor and another one in the mall's parking lot for test drives. Was told I had less than a week to order a MR if I wanted it delivered before year-end to receive the $7,500 tax credit.

I was checking out new prices on tesla.com for model3 and accidentally pushed order on a AWD car (they already had credit card info in my tesla Acct so order went through). I already have 4 Tesla’s but only three drivers. Interesting thing was delivery in December. So can still order for delivery this year for tax credit. Anticipating question....yes I cancelled order. Don’t recommend this experiment. Refund in 45 days, same time frame as getting car

 

[Unpilot]

I was checking out new prices on tesla.com for model3 and accidentally pushed order on a AWD car (they already had credit card info in my tesla Acct so order went through). I already have 4 Tesla’s but only three drivers. Interesting thing was delivery in December. So can still order for delivery this year for tax credit. Anticipating question....yes I cancelled order. Don’t recommend this experiment. Refund in 45 days, same time frame as getting car

ONLY 4 Tesla's...when are you gonna step up man?

 

[Fact Checking]

Sigh. We’ve been over this literally dozens of times on this thread. S&P 500 inclusion does not require four profitable
quarters in a row. The sum of the last four quarters, as well as the last quarter, “should” be GAAP profitable. (And there is some disagreement about what “should” means.)

By now it’s highly probable that the conditions will be satisfied after Q1 2019 results, so May of next year or so.

Some websites are misinformed, so to verify you better go straight to the source.

Well, I believe the 'common knowledge' about S&P 500 inclusion rules in this thread is wrong.

I went straight to the source. The S&P committee doesn't define the inclusion criteria for the S&P 500, here's their latest indexing methodology document, dated September 2018:

https://us.spindices.com/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-us-indices.pdf​

S&P Composite 1500.

The sum of the most recent four consecutive quarters’ Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) earnings (net income excluding discontinued operations) should be positive as should the most recent quarter.​

(emphasis added.)

Note that the 'financial viability' definition is for the S&P 1500 index, not the S&P 500 criteria.

For the S&P 500 they are only listing the following:

S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600

Index Universe.

The index universe consists of all securities that meet the eligibility criteria for these indices as detailed in Eligibility Criteria.

Constituent Selection.

Constituent selection is at the discretion of the Index Committee and is based on the eligibility criteria.​

So unless I missed some other statement in their document their S&P 500 inclusion 'financial viability' requirements don't appear to be defined, i.e. it's within the discretion of the committee. This is why I think that the various stricter definitions that can be found online might be more representative of the rules than the S&P 1500 inclusion rule. It stands to reason that any firm included in the S&P 500 would also meet the S&P 1500 inclusion criteria, so the S&P 1500 rules are very likely a superset of the S&P 500 rules.

As to your "the sum of the last four quarters, as well as the last quarter, 'should' be GAAP profitable" claim, could you please provide citation where the S&P Index Committee defines those rules?