TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SpaceCash]

I'm not a big technical analysis guy, but if I was I'd say we're about to bust a move north.

 

[TradingInvest]

I think Tesla's FSD is coming later next year. Not in the sense that we can sleep in the back seats - we use it like using autopilot, pay full attention all the time... The car should be able to handle everything. True L5 is a wild guess. I think around end of 2020.

 

[Fact Checking]

I get where you were going with the 500 vs 1,500, but you may have it a little backward. the 1500 is made up of the 500, 600, and 400 indexes. So the 500 eligibility criteria is the 1,500 eligibility as spelled out in the document.

Why are you making that assumption? The 400 is the medium market capitalization index, the 600 is the small-cap index.

S&P 500 is one of their most prestigious large-cap indices, with the largest, most stable, most profitable firms in it, it's entirely reasonable to expect stricter rules for inclusion than to the 500+600+400 composite index.

We don't know, they don't appear to be defining it clearly, and they have the authority and discretion to be stricter.

(Anyway, this is getting off topic I suspect.)

 

[Tslynk67]

ThereAre4Cars
Banned

No way...

Well that saves me the trouble of ignoring that one, thanks!

 

[KarenRei]

Um, no. satellite latency is pretty high (longer distance traveled (at least 120 miles more for uplink/downlink and then the additional arc length of path traveled). landline fiber is faster (even with all the routing and switching).

Let's put real numbers behind it. Here's the key points from my traceroutes to various sites. I'll eliminate hops that don't meaningfully affect the delay, and boldface the first hop that leaves Iceland.

[meme@fwiffo ~]$ traceroute teslamotorsclub.com
1 dsldevice.lan (192.168.1.254) 1.411 ms 3.677 ms 3.719 ms
2 157-157-184-1.dsl.dynamic.simnet.is (157.157.184.1) 17.189 ms 19.658 ms 20.471 ms
3 rix-tg-gw.cloudflare.com (195.130.211.50) 22.262 ms 24.639 ms 25.235 ms
4 rix-tg-gw.cloudflare.com (195.130.211.50) 25.693 ms 26.587 ms 27.604 ms
5 104.25.55.22 (104.25.55.22) 30.972 ms 31.383 ms 31.393 ms

[meme@fwiffo ~]$ traceroute model3ownersclub.com
1 dsldevice.lan (192.168.1.254) 1.532 ms 1.959 ms 1.960 ms
2 157-157-184-1.dsl.dynamic.simnet.is (157.157.184.1) 18.172 ms 19.123 ms 20.095 ms
3 siminn-linx-gw-1.isholf.is (195.66.225.26) 59.098 ms 62.070 ms 62.497 ms
5 be100-1298.nwk-5-a9.nj.us (192.99.146.133) 134.363 ms 135.791 ms 136.550 ms
10 158.69.47.68 (158.69.47.68) 135.841 ms 137.222 ms 137.781 ms
11 158.69.61.11 (158.69.61.11) 138.672 ms 140.169 ms 129.617 ms

[meme@fwiffo ~]$ traceroute teslarati.com
1 dsldevice.lan (192.168.1.254) 1.275 ms 2.043 ms 2.044 ms
2 157-157-184-1.dsl.dynamic.simnet.is (157.157.184.1) 18.695 ms 20.897 ms 21.589 ms
3 teledesign-plc.demarc.cogentco.com (149.6.148.46) 61.044 ms 61.472 ms 62.687 ms
4 te0-4-0-11.rcr21.b023101-0.lon01.atlas.cogentco.com (149.6.148.45) 65.227 ms 67.659 ms 67.694 ms
5 be2949.ccr21.lon01.atlas.cogentco.com (130.117.2.13) 68.186 ms be2950.ccr22.lon01.atlas.cogentco.com (130.117.2.109) 67.689 ms 68.594 ms
6 be2871.ccr42.lon13.atlas.cogentco.com (154.54.58.185) 70.008 ms be2870.ccr41.lon13.atlas.cogentco.com (154.54.58.173) 66.011 ms 68.633 ms
7 be2982.ccr31.bos01.atlas.cogentco.com (154.54.1.117) 125.359 ms 113.439 ms be2983.ccr32.bos01.atlas.cogentco.com (154.54.1.178) 113.813 ms
8 be3600.ccr22.alb02.atlas.cogentco.com (154.54.0.221) 114.942 ms 113.031 ms be3599.ccr21.alb02.atlas.cogentco.com (66.28.4.237) 156.504 ms
9 be2879.ccr22.cle04.atlas.cogentco.com (154.54.29.173) 156.578 ms be2878.ccr21.cle04.atlas.cogentco.com (154.54.26.129) 156.568 ms 156.557 ms
12 be3035.ccr21.den01.atlas.cogentco.com (154.54.5.89) 165.408 ms 155.180 ms be3036.ccr22.den01.atlas.cogentco.com (154.54.31.89) 155.640 ms
14 be3110.ccr22.sfo01.atlas.cogentco.com (154.54.44.141) 180.286 ms be3109.ccr21.sfo01.atlas.cogentco.com (154.54.44.137) 180.970 ms be3110.ccr22.sfo01.atlas.cogentco.com (154.54.44.141) 181.329 ms
15 be3670.ccr41.sjc03.atlas.cogentco.com (154.54.43.14) 183.972 ms be3669.ccr41.sjc03.atlas.cogentco.com (154.54.43.10) 185.081 ms 186.064 ms
26 52.93.12.133 (52.93.12.133) 203.272 ms 52.93.12.67 (52.93.12.67) 203.225 ms 52.93.12.169 (52.93.12.169) 203.251 ms
27 54.239.48.191 (54.239.48.191) 240.720 ms * 52.93.240.91 (52.93.240.91) 203.240 ms

[meme@fwiffo ~]$ traceroute insideevs.com
1 dsldevice.lan (192.168.1.254) 1.650 ms 2.022 ms 2.014 ms
2 157-157-184-1.dsl.dynamic.simnet.is (157.157.184.1) 19.167 ms 20.893 ms 23.228 ms
3 teledesign-plc.demarc.cogentco.com (149.6.148.46) 59.818 ms 64.648 ms 65.143 ms
4 te0-4-0-11.rcr21.b023101-0.lon01.atlas.cogentco.com (149.6.148.45) 65.137 ms 65.129 ms 66.604 ms
6 be2870.ccr41.lon13.atlas.cogentco.com (154.54.58.173) 69.830 ms be2871.ccr42.lon13.atlas.cogentco.com (154.54.58.185) 66.144 ms 67.899 ms
9 38.140.107.42 (38.140.107.42) 119.162 ms 38.140.106.162 (38.140.106.162) 116.016 ms 118.720 ms
20 52.95.1.4 (52.95.1.4) 137.934 ms 140.198 ms 52.95.3.126 (52.95.3.126) 138.353 ms

[meme@fwiffo ~]$ traceroute cleantechnica.com
1 dsldevice.lan (192.168.1.254) 1.251 ms 2.158 ms 2.159 ms
2 157-157-184-1.dsl.dynamic.simnet.is (157.157.184.1) 19.293 ms 20.519 ms 21.010 ms
3 be201.am5.ams.nl.ip.siminn.is (157.157.55.249) 84.693 ms 84.684 ms 84.667 ms
4 157.157.55.226 (157.157.55.226) 80.430 ms 84.592 ms 84.605 ms
5 108.170.241.236 (108.170.241.236) 84.613 ms 108.170.241.173 (108.170.241.173) 84.608 ms 108.170.241.141 (108.170.241.141) 84.589 ms
8 172.253.51.160 (172.253.51.160) 133.971 ms 172.253.51.158 (172.253.51.158) 132.047 ms 172.253.51.156 (172.253.51.156) 134.019 ms
9 216.239.58.254 (216.239.58.254) 152.604 ms 153.504 ms 154.778 ms
12 * * 216.239.57.25 (216.239.57.25) 161.498 ms

So, even if Starlink could *only* get me to the place where my communications leave Iceland, it would cut out 17 to 85 milliseconds. (Ed: while GeoIP says that be201.am5.ams.nl.ip.siminn.is is in Iceland, even that's wrong, it doesn't change anything - see below)

Now, if we assume an average Starlink trip - after accounting for angles, and both higher and lower altitude satellites, etc - of 2000km - that's 2.000.000 / 300.000.000 = under 7 milliseconds. Even if you add a couple milliseconds for in-satellite switching (realistically it should only be a small fraction of a millisecond), it's clearly the fastest route to get to my destination.

The key aspect is that it's cutting out a lot of hops (including numerous direct passthroughs that don't show up in a traceroute***). These hops are A) in fibre which isn't as fast as light traveling in a vacuum, B) don't all go in the right direction, C) requires receipt, processing, and retransmission each time. Also, home users generally don't have many possible routes (like people connecting starlink would have). If some router or line leading up to where you get on a backbone is overloaded.... well, tough luck.


*** Traceroute only shows you level 3 hops. There may be hundreds of switches between them.

 

[tivoboy]

Um, no. satellite latency is pretty high (longer distance traveled (at least 120 miles more for uplink/downlink and then the additional arc length of path traveled). landline fiber is faster (even with all the routing and switching).

Off Topic. Funny anecdote, but don't read if only interested in market action only items.

A year ago, I was in Punta Arenas, southern Chile. I made a purchase with my Amex card. They had to key it into a handheld terminal. I imagine that retailer terminal was connected to their bank, or their credit card clearing agency. The card and amount has to be verified and validated. It probably also has to be confirmed with AMEX (most likely back in the USA) card validity and purchase amount - with a bunch of fraud checking since the card and retailer were both outside the USA at the time. Some algorithm on some system back in the USA most likely. So, card machine to local bank then probably to national bank, to card issuer agency, to card issuer to authentication and so on..

I also have card ALERTS setup for foreign transactions and for certain $$ amount thresholds setup, and I have the CARD setup on my iphone (which was at the time connected to a foreign cell tower and network - in a very REMOTE part of the town mind you). Somewhere within AMEX back in the USA, the transaction has to post to the account at least as pending, THEN some trigger takes off based on the alerts setup and then that has to be sent through the AMEX outbound queuing system to find the destination device and type for alerting. The alert gets sent out, but then has to find the device. Its flowing through a system of alerts, to carriers to phones to apps to devices. That would have been AT&T and AT&T had to be able to get the alert to me wherever I was on a global network.

by the time the sales person had finished typing the last of the digits from my card into her remote terminal and HANDED the card back to me, I got the alert on my apple watch - which was bluetooth connected to my iphone which was at the time connected to a 3G network and had 1 bar of signal.

TWO SECONDS! I was 10,000 miles from home and 8,000 miles away from the united states. And it was a Gen 1 apple watch too, so the on device processing time was probably at LEAST ONE SECOND..

;-). It's amazing how far we have come.

 

[TradingInvest]

This is what many people used to californian style roads do not understand./ I live in rural UK. In my trip to the nearby town I will drive down 50% single-lane roads with zero road markings, and thick hedges on both sides. I will likely encounter a few mini-roundabouts (they are EVERYWHERE in the UK), and probably at least one dead badger in the road. Its pretty likely there will be pedestrians in the road at some point, and I may well have to slowly drive around some people riding horses.

At its ABSOLUTE widest, there is no room for me to pass a cyclist safely if there is a car coming in the opposite direction.

Needless to say cell signal is intermittent at best along this entire route.

FSD on the streets of LA is one thing. FSD in the snow where I live is likely several decades away, and I say that as a professional computer programmer with huge faith in Tesla.

The key for snow and all the conditions you talked about is to slow down. 5~10 mph on snowy road. I think this can be handled.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Not family

Independent director - Wikipedia

An independent director (also sometimes known as an outside director) is a director (member) of a board of directors who does not have a material or pecuniary relationship with company or related persons, except sitting fees.

I think JB Straubel would be the second most obvious answer to be eliminated from the multiple choice question "Which of these people could be an independent director of Tesla?"

 

[KarenRei]

BUT (re. starlink): I do think that this is pretty irrelevant to Tesla (esp. market action), except with respect to Musk's overall wealth. Musk has been pretty clear that he does not plan to - at least any time soon - put Starlink connections in Teslas. The receivers are just too bulky; you need something the size of a large pizza box on the roof.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Anyone else tested the latest software "Navigate on Autopilot"? Really love it.

Eddie describes it some on Ep. 93 of Plug Your Ride. Overall loves it:

• Pro: “Flawless” on twisty hairpin road (Colorado!), slowing to 25mph for the turns, even braking to do so “just like you would”
• Con: “doesn’t know what an on-ramp is”

 

[Artful Dodger]

NASDAQ-100 headed back up now, and TSLA be L337

$337 +7.1 2.15%
*Real-Time - data as of 10/31/2018 12:17:23 PM

 

[SpaceCash]

As a leading technical analysis expert, I gotta say I called this upswing

 

[Cherry Wine]

As a leading technical analysis expert, I gotta say I called this upswing

You did call it. What clued you in?

EDIT: Some pretty heavy resistance at $340.

 

[TradingInvest]

Watch 341 and 348.

 

[SpaceCash]

Basically the way we're consolidating above day's lows, and poking up very easily on somewhat anemic volume, I looked at the chart and my spidey sense tingled, and I called the play, couching it in plausible deniability

 

[Drax7]

Independent director - Wikipedia



I think JB Straubel would be the second most obvious answer to be eliminated from the multiple choice question "Which of these people could be an independent director of Tesla?"

On a lighter tone, would grimes be eligible for a board position?

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Again, if I'm understanding your assertion, not relevant. Starlink uses highly directional signals with phased array antennas in the 10.7-14.5 GHz frequencies (doesn't penetrate anything). Iridium uses omnidirectional signals with single element antennas in the 1.6 GHz frequencies (penetrates more).

The "phased array" basically means a whole bunch of antennas put together -- i.e., a pizza box.

I've heard about starlink using phased array, but I didn't find anything definitive, care to share the source?

Admittedly, I am not privy to any insider details, but when I hear a constellation of over 10,000 satellites, I'm thinking it's very low in LEO orbit, and maximum capital efficiency dictates direct-to-customer transmission. Using ground-based relay/santennas adds cost (capital AND opex) and complexity, when your relay station can be 60-100 miles away from anywhere on earth somewhere in the sky. It just doesn't pencil out otherwise. Is there another thread that's already discussed this in detail?

 

[Cherry Wine]

Basically the way we're consolidating above day's lows, and poking up very easily on somewhat anemic volume, I looked at the chart and my spidey sense tingled, and I called the play, couching it in plausible deniability

Couching statements in plausible deniability is one of my specialties.

 

[Unpilot]

If it breaks out of the $340 resistance we will see a double candle wick back flip crescendo. Of course we could also see a hammerhead star shoot followed by a cigar top.

 

[tivoboy]

If it breaks out of the $340 resistance we will see a double candle wick back flip crescendo. Of course we could also see a hammerhead star shoot followed by a cigar top.

Where do you see the 340$ resistance coming from?