TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[elasalle]

true, it could be a fake 98, but not shorts style to put something out that says things are basically on track with Model 3 production. as to longs, hard to find examples of them playing such games.

I think intent was to say 2K/Wk was bad and make shares fall further? However, looks like market is taking this as worst case scenario ... & hence the rise in SP by a bit ..

 

[elasalle]

Do you really imply that Dana would be short? Seriously?

Short in sense that her articles/tweets are a bit biased -vely. Not in investing sense(pardon)

 

[replicant]

As mentioned above, this is the first source of the screenshot I’ve seen.

Problem Magnet on Twitter

The jalopnik article, which corroborates the screenshot, mentions “an email obtained by jalopnik” and the bottom of the article says Tesla declined to comment. If it was fake, I would assume Tesla would have refuted the authenticity. I think it’s legit.

I assume it's a real email, but since it was first shared by shorts, and people are taking a single screenshot as a confirmation, I'd like to get more sources (Tesla has dozens of thousands of employees now). And I'd understand that Tesla prefer to chose when to confirm or refute such numbers. Not commenting (w/o implying it's true) is a legitimate position IMO.

 

[defc0n]

I think intent was to say 2K/Wk was bad and make shares fall further? However, looks like market is taking this as worst case scenario ... & hence the rise in SP by a bit ..

To be quite honest, > 2k/wk right now will likely be considered a beat. The market (and me) was anticipating lower than that.

 

[sundaymorning]

The market seems to be taking this leaked email favorably, investors are buying.... I think Elon wanted to get this bit of good news out early to stop the bleeding and allow the market to digest while Tesla tally’s up delivery numbers. Additionally, there has been much discussion on this forum about burst rate going on a solid 7 day production instead of 3 (like last Q), that way the data is more representative of this 2000/ week’s true potential. Hence, Tesla may wait until end of today to confirm the good news that 2,000/ week has in fact been met for 7 entire days and report to investors the final numbers tomorrow.

 

[replicant]

Short in sense that her articles/tweets are a bit biased -vely. Not in investing sense(pardon)

What is the bias? I've been following her for years and although I think she's playing the scandal game (making everything – good or bad — appear bigger than they are), like any other reporter nowadays, I doubt she's biased against Tesla.

Short doesn't mean "not a supported" for God's sake.

 

[ZeApelido]

I believe Elon imiplied 4 times the production rate of all cars at end of 2017. Production rate at end of 2017 was ~ 2000/wk (S+X) and then ~ 500-1000 / wk of Model 3 (I don't know which rate he is using). This implies a total production rate of 10,000 - 12,000 vehicles at end of 2018. Approximately 8,000-10,000 Model 3's / week I would assume.​

 

[sundaymorning]

To be quite honest, > 2k/wk right now will likely be considered a beat. The market (and me) was anticipating lower than that.

You bet! I was thinking 1,500 - 2,000. A whole weight has been lifted off my shoulders. Thank God.

 

[Crowded Mind]

I assume it's a real email, but since it was first shared by shorts, and people are taking a single screenshot as a confirmation, I'd like to get more sources (Tesla has dozens of thousands of employees now). And I'd understand that Tesla prefer to chose when to confirm or refute such numbers. Not commenting (w/o implying it's true) is a legitimate position IMO.

I agree, but to me the evidence is strongly in favor of it being legitimate. At this point it has spread enough that Tesla would need to correct if it was not, IMO.

To me, this is great news. The verbiage used implies a lot of confidence that this is a sustainable rate and was achieved for more than just a short burst. I think we are entering Q2 in a much, much better spot than we were in Q1.

 

[Iceman]

When will the short begin to cover as a response to the email?

They have to take over at some point right?

 

[SteveG3]

What is the bias? I've been following her for years and although I think she's playing the scandal game (making everything – good or bad — appear bigger than they are), like any other reporter nowadays, I doubt she's biased against Tesla.

Short doesn't mean "not a supported" for God's sake.

if you offer us an example of her magnifying something as positive in the past 3 years, I'll find you ten of her magnifying as negative. find another and we can repeat this until you run out. I'm not sure you will even find one example to get us started.

 

[elasalle]

To be quite honest, > 2k/wk right now will likely be considered a beat. The market (and me) was anticipating lower than that.

The problem magnet tweet was in reply to this article:
Tesla Model 3 Deliveries Expected to Come Up Short; Shares Fall

but yes for TMCers, I think 2K/wk was best case scenario ..

 

[SteveG3]

I believe Elon imiplied 4 times the production rate of all cars at end of 2017. Production rate at end of 2017 was ~ 2000/wk (S+X) and then ~ 500-1000 / wk of Model 3 (I don't know which rate he is using). This implies a total production rate of 10,000 - 12,000 vehicles at end of 2018. Approximately 8,000-10,000 Model 3's / week I would assume.​

oh... you may be right... I was thinking 4X the 2K rate of S and X. if you conservatively add in 500 for TM3, 10K total, implies about 8K for the 3... that would be a massive beat of Street expectations. not 100% clear that's what Elon meant though.

Update: nevermind, apparently nothing in the email about end of 2017.

 

[SteveG3]

To be quite honest, > 2k/wk right now will likely be considered a beat. The market (and me) was anticipating lower than that.

I thought that's what we all thought would be a strong result when you include it's a week of production, not various lines at some point for a day like last quarters 1,000 rate comment.

 

[j0hn]

if i'd had to guess i would say the smart shorts are covering ;-)

 

[defc0n]

When will the short begin to cover as a response to the email?

They have to take over at some point right?

Very risky move to not already covered by now. If any are listening, consider this my short term warning...

 

[Waiting4M3]

oh... you may be right... I was thinking 4X the 2K rate of S and X. if you conservatively add in 500 for TM3, 10K total, implies about 8K for the 3... that would be a massive beat of Street expectations. not 100% clear that's what Elon meant though.

I think Elon clearly said:

"which means we should be able to exceed a combined Model S, X and 3 production rate of 4000 vehicles per week and climbing rapidly. This is already double the pace of 2017! By the end of this year, I believe we will be producing vehicles at least four times faster than last year."

I don't see anywhere mention of using end of 2017 rate, I think he meant the whole year rate of 2k/wk, and now we're at 4k/wk which is double, and end of 2018 will be at least 8k/wk which is 4x.

 

[Reciprocity]

I believe Elon imiplied 4 times the production rate of all cars at end of 2017. Production rate at end of 2017 was ~ 2000/wk (S+X) and then ~ 500-1000 / wk of Model 3 (I don't know which rate he is using). This implies a total production rate of 10,000 - 12,000 vehicles at end of 2018. Approximately 8,000-10,000 Model 3's / week I would assume.​

Yeah, that email is problematic. If you can decipher what he meant, you are smarter then I am.

On one hand he claims 4000 is 2x 2000+(500-1000). It seems more like he is saying 8000/w total by end of the 2018 which would be 2000/w S/X + 6000/w Model 3 which is realistic given the improvements in Q1/2018 over Q4/2017 and the the recent CC where they spoke about 2019 for the ramp to 10k/w, which will require 50% more capex vs the original.

 

[SteveG3]

I think Elon clearly said:

"which means we should be able to exceed a combined Model S, X and 3 production rate of 4000 vehicles per week and climbing rapidly. This is already double the pace of 2017! By the end of this year, I believe we will be producing vehicles at least four times faster than last year."

I don't see anywhere mention of using end of 2017 rate, I think he meant the whole year rate of 2k/wk, and now we're at 4k/wk which is double, and end of 2018 will be at least 8k/wk which is 4x.

lols, I originally thought as you.

I picked up "end of 2017" from someone else's post and assumed they had seen something in the email that I hadn't.

thanks for the quick catch on my incorrect assumption.

 

[Reciprocity]

I think Elon clearly said:

"which means we should be able to exceed a combined Model S, X and 3 production rate of 4000 vehicles per week and climbing rapidly. This is already double the pace of 2017! By the end of this year, I believe we will be producing vehicles at least four times faster than last year."

I don't see anywhere mention of using end of 2017 rate, I think he meant the whole year rate of 2k/wk, and now we're at 4k/wk which is double, and end of 2018 will be at least 8k/wk which is 4x.

I agree. 8K is very much inline with other things they have said. 2k S/X and 6k Model 3 in 2018. They require more capex to go beyond 6k to 10k and they said that ramp would start in 2019. I think the ramp from 6k to 10k should be smoother then the ramp has been to 2k because it will mostly be based on duplication of parts of the line.