TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Crowded Mind]

Very clearly at least 8k/wk total, 6k/wk Model 3, in my opinion.

 

[ZeApelido]

I think Elon clearly said:

"which means we should be able to exceed a combined Model S, X and 3 production rate of 4000 vehicles per week and climbing rapidly. This is already double the pace of 2017! By the end of this year, I believe we will be producing vehicles at least four times faster than last year."

I don't see anywhere mention of using end of 2017 rate, I think he meant the whole year rate of 2k/wk, and now we're at 4k/wk which is double, and end of 2018 will be at least 8k/wk which is 4x.

It is conjecture, but often people talk about year over year growth, so comparing rate at end of 2017 to end of 2018 would make sense.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Yeah, that email is problematic. If you can decipher what he meant, you are smarter then I am.

On one hand he claims 4000 is 2x 2000+(500-1000). It seems more like he is saying 8000/w total by end of the 2018 which would be 2000/w S/X + 6000/w Model 3 which is realistic given the improvements in Q1/2018 over Q4/2017 and the the recent CC where they spoke about 2019 for the ramp to 10k/w, which will require 50% more capex vs the original.

That's how I read it also, that the push from 5k to 10k will happen mostly in 2019. But wait, a realistic goal, from Elon?!

 

[30seconds]

wow, how about Tesla hits 5k/ week first? The company has said that going from 5 to 10k/ week will take an additional round of capital investments along with the time to ramp. It's not just about adding robots, but also the pack production at GF, which doesn't yet support rates above 5k/ week (and maybe not even that), parts production from suppliers, conveyance at Fremont and deliveries. That is a lot of potential bottlenecks and unknown hold ups.

 

[sundaymorning]

You don’t get to 2,000/week by being lucky. Tesla is solving bottlenecks! It took 5 years for Tesla to get to 2,000k/ week with S&X, and only 9 months with M3. What this is proving is that M3 is way easier to build (as indicated by Tesla), and that bottlenecks are resolved as we move along. I wouldn’t bet against Tesla/Elon at this point in time.



Tesla Model 3 production rate is now ‘over 2,000 units per week’, says Elon Musk
Electrik is also running this leaked email.

 

[replicant]

Wow. Last week events had a hug effect on Google Trends for Tesla in the US.

The first peak coincides with Starman's Roadster.
The second, starting on March 28's, was caused by searches related to "wei huang", "wei huang", "tesla recall", "tesla recall model s", "tesla bankruptcy probability".

 

[Pras]

wow, how about Tesla hits 5k/ week first? The company has said that going from 5 to 10k/ week will take an additional round of capital investments along with the time to ramp. It's not just about adding robots, but also the pack production at GF, which doesn't yet support rates above 5k/ week (and maybe not even that), parts production from suppliers, conveyance at Fremont and deliveries. That is a lot of potential bottlenecks and unknown hold ups.

5K to 10K should need less capital as they will be making nearly 10K profit margin per model 3. which is 600mm per quarter in net cash flow plus additional 20K per Model S / X which is 400mm per quarter. So they will have 1B in net margin from the car production.

 

[Reciprocity]

You don’t get to 2,000/week by being lucky. Tesla is solving bottlenecks! It took 5 years for Tesla to get to 2,000k/ week with S&X, and only 9 months with M3. What this is proving is that M3 is way easier to build (as indicated by Tesla), and that bottlenecks are resolved as we move along. I wouldn’t bet against Tesla/Elon at this point in time.



Tesla Model 3 production rate is now ‘over 2,000 units per week’, says Elon Musk
Electrik is also running this leaked email.

To me the most bullish part was the bit about the rate being sustained for a full week. no flim flam required. It would be very difficult to burst for a full week vs a couple of days. You would need to queue up a lot of parts for example. Have a lot of bodies to help out. Its clear that they where asking for volunteers and those people where probably just moving cars and helping with things like QA and prep to exit the factory.

In terms of going to 10k, I know they where building another automated parts tower on the other side, or at least I remember something like that. They will certainly need another Grohmann machine or 3 to get to 10k. At the very least, they can get rid of the semi-automatic lines and those people can go back to their regular jobs at the gigafactory. Though I wouldnt take down those semi automatic lines until they have a couple more Grohmann machines installed and running.

 

[replicant]

What websites/sources that are rarely mentioned here (e.g neither Electrek nor /r/teslamotors) would you recommend to espace a possible bull echo chamber here on TMC?

Shorts might love to come here and play with us, but where do you find neutral people who have an opinion on Tesla's future but wouldn't want to keep up with the hundreds of comments that are posted here daily?

 

[schonelucht]

Honestly, I think 10k is going to come only with the Y. Just as it took the X to get to 2k despite Tesla already claiming they were going to reach that rate end of 2014. Tesla must start reconfiguring their production for the Y at the latest by end this year if there is any hope of delivering the first model Ys in 2019. It just doesn't make sense to do a huge capital expense to push the 3 production to 10k months and potentially complicate the Y launch. Far better to duplicate some of the bottlenecks of the existing 3 line in a new combined 3/Y line. It made sense for the S+X combo, not seeing why it wouldn't make sense for the 3/Y. In the mean time squeeze out increasing efficiency on the 3 line to reach 6k, maybe 7k per week.

 

[elasalle]

What websites/sources that are rarely mentioned here (e.g neither Electrek nor /r/teslamotors) would you recommend to espace a possible bull echo chamber here on TMC?

Shorts might love to come here and play with us, but where do you find neutral people who have an opinion on Tesla's future but wouldn't want to keep up with the hundreds of comments that are posted here daily?

Seeking Alpha

 

[replicant]

What websites/sources that are rarely mentioned here (e.g neither Electrek nor /r/teslamotors) would you recommend to espace a possible bull echo chamber here on TMC?

Shorts might love to come here and play with us, but where do you find neutral people who have an opinion on Tesla's future but wouldn't want to keep up with the hundreds of comments that are posted here daily?

For instance, I'm really surprised that most comments about Tesla on Hacker News are really negative now.

 

[replicant]

Seeking Alpha

I'd prefer a place that isn't full of showhow-stakeholders (long or short).

 

[engle]

Buy! Buy! Buy! And back up the truck screw the shorts and the “haters”!

Long for a long time and loving it!

 

[ZsoZso]

I do not see how the 8k/week by end of 2018 reaffirming previous guidance !?
Didn't he say earlier in a QA session that he is 100% confident that 10k/week M3 will be reached by the end of 2018 ?
8k/week total means only 6k/week M3, thats significantly lower than 10k/week.

I have seen some mention of 1600/week battery pack production on the semi-manual line with the Grohman line providing additional 2.5k/week once it will be operational (soon). Clearly, with a bit of saving up some of them for a few weeks from the 1600/week, they can manufacture a single week of 2000+ cars, but it is not sustainable without the full automatic line.
The new end-of year promise sounds like it would require 2 full automatic lines (5k/week) + the semi-manual line for battery packs.

 

[Richgoogol]

Is there a chance that the leaked email is a fake?

 

[engle]

Personally I think Wall Street is using Mr. Huang’s unfortunate accident and media coverage of it in combination with Model 3 last week of Q1 worries and some “sell side” analysts questioning financial health — all those things and a few others — like future competition in the space — to temporarily depress the price so their large clients and traders can buy back in cheaper, and their shorts can book a win (finally)

Predict after TSLA announces official 7-day Model 3 number there will be a spike up in price.

I never worry about Tesla’s cash reserves cuz worst case Elon can merge his SpaceX into it for TSLA stock. I would love that kind of “dilution”!

Just my 2 cents!

 

[sundaymorning]

To me the most bullish part was the bit about the rate being sustained for a full week. no flim flam required. It would be very difficult to burst for a full week vs a couple of days. You would need to queue up a lot of parts for example. Have a lot of bodies to help out. Its clear that they where asking for volunteers and those people where probably just moving cars and helping with things like QA and prep to exit the factory.

In terms of going to 10k, I know they where building another automated parts tower on the other side, or at least I remember something like that. They will certainly need another Grohmann machine or 3 to get to 10k. At the very least, they can get rid of the semi-automatic lines and those people can go back to their regular jobs at the gigafactory. Though I wouldnt take down those semi automatic lines until they have a couple more Grohmann machines installed and running.

Volunteers from the MS/X lines may not be as fluent in dealing with M3, hence, I think their help would not be significant enough to push us this far unless the bottlenecks are getting resolved. This is definitly a good sign and we are moving along in the right direction.

 

[EnergyMax]

For instance, I'm really surprised that most comments about Tesla on Hacker News are really negative now.

Hacker News is not insightful commentary. It has it's own agenda of downplaying any tech that isn't available to the 99% today.

 

[engle]

Is there a chance that the leaked email is a fake?

Absolutely zero chance I posted it as soon as receIved and am NOT going to trade on the info for obvious reasons — I’m buy and hold since the days it was in the $30’s and have added all the way up to $300 stopping there.

PS. I only bought 67 shares around $248 earlier this morning before I received the employee email to even out my holdings (I like round numbers of shares X,000 easier to calculate). Am always trying to put as much as I can into my Roth accounts since will be tax-free when I decide to retire - so get weird numbers in some accounts. Sold a little MSFT and all my FTNT to buy 67 TSLA.

Also, I am NOT an employee never was just stock and Model X owner. The information is very indirect to me which is good, too — not from any employees I personally know.