TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[lklundin]

Was there no reservation list in China before?

There was.

What is being reported now is that the website says that the expected delivery for a Model 3 in China is 2019 - and that the same page mentions the standard (220 mile) range variant - causing people to conclude that in China one can expect delivery of a SR variant in 2019.

 

[JRP3]

Fantastic article by @neroden

The Doom Of Fossil Fuel Investments | CleanTechnica

Edit: fantastic in the modern sense of the word, not the original meaning.

@neroden You should send a condensed version of the section on natural gas to the county legislature as they are about to vote on repowering Cayuga as a ng peaker. I sent a letter explaining why ng is outdated and solar plus battery packs is the only rational choice and received positive feedback for the input.
Apologies to all for the off topic post but it's an important issue, and could lead to more sales for Tesla

 

[nursebee]

Love this kind of press in this kind of organization. Cup with handle near buy point.

Tesla Stock, PayPal Stock Lead Top Stocks Near Buy Zones | Investor's Business Daily

Info on the pattern:
Bulkowski's Cup with Handle
Cup and Handle
Cup with Handle (Continuation) [ChartSchool]

 

[Tslynk67]

Boss Short:

How about starting a rumor that Carlos Ghosn is joining Tesla's board of directors ?
Might push the stock down a point or two?

Your Partner in Crime
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times

HG (out of character) This might actually be a good idea. Carlos would be good on the board.

They'd have to hold all meetings after dark...

(photo stolen from TeslaMondo)

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

BTW., here's the latest drone footage from Tesla's new Lathrop building under construction:

Common speculation is that it's a distribution center, but:

• It's way too large for that IMO.
• In California cars can be stored in parking lots - why use a building?
• The cars will be transported via car trailers or train anyway, where they get dusty - so it doesn't seem to make sense to store them in a building.
• The building appears to be around 2-3 stories high - a distribution and logistics center would normally be a single story high.

To me this building looks more like a classical Gigafactory design. Perhaps for Model Y and the Semi?

What do you guys think? It's IMHO key to Tesla's 2019 valuation and stock price how the Model Y expansion is handled.

Update:

Here's another drone video about the foundations:

Those foundations don't look deep and strong enough for a factory building. Here's the GF1 foundations as a comparison:

Much deeper/stronger to host heavy machines.

Also, at around 1 million square feet it's still much smaller than the 4-5 square feet GF1/GF2/GF3 buildings.

So maybe a big warehouse after all - to free up space in Fremont?

There are loading docks as far as the eye can see. That makes it a distribution center (of parts perhaps?). No factory would have loading docks from one end of the building to the other end.

 

[Artful Dodger]

There are loading docks as far as the eye can see. That makes it a distribution center (of parts perhaps?). No factory would have loading docks from one end of the building to the other end.

Yes traditionally that's very true, but keep in mind what Tesla did with GA4 in the Sprung structure. Elon said that one of the major advantages of GA4 is that trucks can back right up to the side of the building near the point of the assembly line where the parts are used.

That arrangement saves an entire step in distribution, and requires a few hundred less workers. The Supplier's truck just needs to deliver on time to the place where the parts are needed. Saves time and money.

I expected that lesson to be on display in any new Gigafactory going forward. We'll know more as GF3/Shanghai starts to take shape.

Cheers!

 

[Cattledog]

BTW., here's the latest drone footage from Tesla's new Lathrop building under construction:

Common speculation is that it's a distribution center, but:

• It's way too large for that IMO.
• In California cars can be stored in parking lots - why use a building?
• The cars will be transported via car trailers or train anyway, where they get dusty - so it doesn't seem to make sense to store them in a building.
• The building appears to be around 2-3 stories high - a distribution and logistics center would normally be a single story high.

To me this building looks more like a classical Gigafactory design. Perhaps for Model Y and the Semi?

What do you guys think? It's IMHO key to Tesla's 2019 valuation and stock price how the Model Y expansion is handled.

Those foundations don't look deep and strong enough for a factory building.

Also, at around 1 million square feet it's still much smaller than the 4-5 square feet GF1/GF2/GF3 buildings.

So maybe a big warehouse after all - to free up space in Fremont?

I think warehouse. The openings in the tilt-wall look dock-sized and spaced for trucks (Tesla Semi?). There's only one floor evident, the ground slab, and no upper levels. Elon's into 3D optimization, so a more vertical distribution center than is typical would be up his alley. I guess it's possible there might be some light manufacturing of parts in the middle somewhere that then get stored and distributed.

 

[HG Wells]

Yes traditionally that's very true, but keep in mind what Tesla did with GA4 in the Sprung structure. Elon said that one of the major advantages of GA4 is that trucks can back right up to the side of the building near the point of the assembly line where the parts are used.

That arrangement saves an entire step in distribution, and requires a few hundred less workers. The Supplier's truck just needs to deliver on time to the place where the parts are needed. Saves time and money.

I expected that lesson to be on display in any new Gigafactory going forward. We'll know more as GF3/Shanghai starts to take shape.

Cheers!

When that truck with 10 days of parts burns due to a traffic accident. The just in time doesn't look that good.
Now if you require your supplier to stock 30 days of parts off site then just in time is safe.

 

[shlokavica22]

I think warehouse. The openings in the tilt-wall look dock-sized and spaced for trucks (Tesla Semi?). There's only one floor evident, the ground slab, and no upper levels. Elon's into 3D optimization, so a more vertical distribution center than is typical would be up his alley. I guess it's possible there might be some light manufacturing of parts in the middle somewhere that then get stored and distributed.

More vertical integration probably? Taking another part of the car they can make in house?

 

[hacer]

Stock settlement is 3 days, while options settlement is 1 day. After you sell stock, you don't have money to buy options for two more days, so that technicality may be a problem, unless you're trading around the edges. Hard to move the whole portfolio quickly. Opposite is not a problem.

Stock settlement used to be 3 days, but it's been 2 for some time now.
T+2 Is Here | FINRA.org

 

[CHGolferJim]

By that logic, would selling covered calls on the Feb options be preferred because of the "overpriced" premium?

OR....never sell cover calls on a stock you are Long on?

I’m no options expert, but is there any other way to sell covered calls than being simultaneously long? I have done both to a limited extent — long with shares believing in the long-term story, and short-term SCC to play phases with likelihood of price decline/stagnation. Can pick up $2k-$3k a shot doing this. Did not SCC on 100% of shares at any one time since miscalculations can happen.

 

[heltok]

357.82 +3.51 (0.99%)
Pre-Market: 7:41AM EST

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock Real Time Stock Quotes
$357.20 +2.89 0.82%
*Real-Time - data as of 11/19/2018 7:38:41 AM

Meanwhile, NASDAQ-100 futures are down:
6,875.50 -19.75 -0.29%

So, "Flight to Quality" again today?

EDIT - NASDAQ Futures @ 07:50 AM EST

 

[Tslynk67]

$TSLA up 1% in pre-market whilst most of the other usual suspects are red...

 

[JBRR]

Tesla China open standard range Model 3 pre-order (starting $35,000 USD)

Another short thesis go up in flames.

 

[ZeApelido]

Fantastic article by @neroden

The Doom Of Fossil Fuel Investments | CleanTechnica

Edit: fantastic in the modern sense of the word, not the original meaning.

Nice piece. So which companies should I short?

 

[NicoV]

Fantastic article by @neroden

The Doom Of Fossil Fuel Investments | CleanTechnica

Edit: fantastic in the modern sense of the word, not the original meaning.

@neroden An extra data point regarding heat pumps: I have a geothermal heat pump (I.e. the heat exchanges through the ground, in my case going 90 meters deep). This kind of heat pump has a COP of 5, and isn’t impacted by cold weather in the winter since the temperature of the earth that deep is practically constant throughout the year. In Belgium this is the typical heatpump installion for new buildings. Also note that purely resistive electrical heating is banned in Belgium, only heatpump based electric heating is allowed.

 

[cheshire cat]

@neroden An extra data point regarding heat pumps: I have a geothermal heat pump (I.e. the heat exchanges through the ground, in my case going 90 meters deep). This kind of heat pump has a COP of 5, and isn’t impacted by cold weather in the winter since the temperature of the earth that deep is practically constant throughout the year. In Belgium this is the typical heatpump installion for new buildings. Also note that purely resistive electrical heating is banned in Belgium, only heatpump based electric heating is allowed.

Sounds like an ideal partner for a powerwall.

 

[HG Wells]

Tesla China open standard range Model 3 pre-order (starting $35,000 USD)

Another short thesis go up in flames.

No its what we have said all along.
Model 3 doesn't have a big market in the US so they are dumping them on China !

Chief Editor
Shortsville Times

 

[Unpilot]

Good morning all.
Wow what a week we have in store for us longs.

We will see ATH this week..I feel it in my bones.

Strap in tight!