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Tesla and Panasonic have every incentive in the world to squeeze all the life that they can out of the capital they've sunk into 18650 production.
The easy way to improve range and charge rates (mph/kph) in Model S/X, at least excluding P100D, would be to swap one of the motors out for a PM motor. This will then be used for cruising and should up their average efficiency by 5-10%
Don't confuse "We don't have enough cell supply to expand production" with "We don't have enough cell supply to maintain our current production rate". Also remember that this was specifically in reference to Model 3. Model 3 has been robbing cells from Tesla Energy for quite a while; Tesla Energy has been having to get by on the scraps and whatever cells they can secure from other manufacturers.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: Tesla will turn on Panasonic whenever an opportunity presents itself (either an internal program that they think they can scale, or an outside company they could acquire; both options are mostly capital limited). Tesla is obsessed with vertical integration, both for retaining 100% of the profit, and for rapid turnaround without being constrained by outside entities, whose reliability may vary.
As Musk pointed out, there's a dfference between when something "comes out", and when it's "produced in volume"; the latter is what costs a lot of money. With many vehicles, but Semi in particular, Tesla needs to get them on the market, in some minimal volume, ASAP so that potential customers can experience them. With Semi, fleets will need time to trial the vehicles and decide whether they're saving money as they're supposed to. These small trial programs will then expand to large trial programs, which will then ultimately expand to phaseouts of existing diesel fleets. If barriers come up, Tesla will need to remedy these, which is yet another delay. So to reiterate, Tesla needs to get this process rolling ASAP.
Simply not true. Autocollected ABRP data for Model 3 LR:
Note the lack of data on the low end, so I wouldn't trust the shape of that upslope. But it's very clear that as a general rule, it's "just under 120kW" up to 50%, and deviations from this are the exception, not the rule. And indeed, Tesla has already stated that all of its current vehicles can take more than 120kW - only older vehicles cannot benefit from V3.
Also - side note: this is what the curve looks like now. This should be Tesla's conservative charge profile. But if Tesla later decides that cell longevity is meeting or exceeding conservative projections, they could well take a more aggressive charge profile with a future update.
What are Model 3's actual power limitations? It's hard to say. Factory mode and the EPA filings say 525A. Ingineerix has argued that the charge cabling is only good for 430A**. But both of these numbers are higher than V2's (350A?) limit.
** It's quite possible that both are correct. Cable nominal power ratings are generally for sustained usage - the current at which their rate of heat loss matches their rate of heat gain at their maximum safe temperature. But 5 minutes of high rate usage on a cool cable - getting them up to said temperature - followed by a rampdown - should be a perfectly acceptable alternative. I guess we'll find out. 525A is 50% more heating than 430A.
Doing some math... alumium has a specific heat of 0,9 J/g-C (Model 3's charge cabling is alumium, unlike S/X). 3-0 cable is 1,04cm in diameter, or a cross section of 0,85cm², with a mass of around 230g/m, or a heat capacity of around 207 J/m-C. Resistance should be around 0,00034 ohms/m. Heating is I²R, so ~93,7W/m, so 0,45°C temperature rise per second without accounting for passive cooling. I don't know the wire's class, but let's say that it's going from 25°C to 90°C. So without any passive cooling, it should take about 2 1/2 minutes to reach the maximum temperature. So yeah, with passive cooling, you should be able to run it at higher powers for maybe 3-6 minutes. I'm way too lasy to try to model the passive cooling to get a more precise figure than that
Nice post. Thank you.
... The internal wiring could be conductively cooled to an aluminum chassis part in the more expensive vehicle. Or a local, coincident, cooling pipe .
Spacing superchargers to charge on the lower half of the battery sees charge rates of 450 MPH. So smearing the superchargers to allow this frequent charge strategy might make sense.
They are production constrained on the 2170s currently, and they're planning to increase the capacity from ~20 to ~150GWh.
While they might be production constrained for a while, we don't know for sure.
There might have been a significant number of Panasonic investors a few months ago that thought Tesla may not make it and may have put a damper on cell manufacturing investment. If so, that certainly has changed now.
Not sure it's been mentioned here: Marques Brownlee's P100D (the one he calls Apollo) got side-swiped by a large truck while driving on the expressway. Early estimates suggest the damage can be repaired, but Marques (aka MKBHD) already is prepared for long waiting times based on feedback he received from other owners reg. typical body repair times. He also brings up the fact that he received what may be called "preferential treatment" in his previous interactions with Tesla service, but he's still not terribly optimistic. He put up a video on that about one day ago, so I wonder if there's any correlation between this and the Twitter chatter on replacement parts and servicing from Elon yesterday.
Either way, it should be interesting to follow, might be beneficial to all current owners when it comes to speed of body repairs.
Either way, it should be interesting to follow, might be beneficial to all current owners when it comes to speed of body repairs.
That is only if they sell the Semi.
If they use them internally, they save millions a year just in pack shipping costs from Sparks to Fremont.
Say 50 packs a semi, that is 20 semi loads a day. Round trip distance is 500 milesish, a two trips per day per semi. 10 Semis needed doing 10k miles per day. Say 10 MPG, 1k gallons of $4 diesel. $4,000 a day vs 2 kWh per mile worst case: 20,000 kWh @ $0.1 (non GF sourced) is $2,000 a day in electricity. A savings per day of $2k. Times 90 days a quarter = $180k. Equvilent to 20% GM on 18 $50k 3s.
But semis take 10x the battery capacity (roughly), so 10 semi x10 x$10k = $1million in missing 3 GM. So it's 6 quarters until break even, then the semi creates more bottom line that the 3s would have. Another 6 to pay for the cost of the semi build. However, the first few can be expensed as R&D.
This is all worst case with high kWh cost and large packs, the smaller size would be fine for Tesla to Tesla trips. Could have net positive ROI in under a year and would have better bottom line the next quarter.
Possible reason for the delay: they first needed to reverse their short position!
Other attractions from UBS
Tesla target represent 18% increase!
It's my gut feeling that $TSLA is being manipulated down in pre-market to make it look like it's as bad as the other stocks. Volume is relatively low, so easy to achieve. Opening direction will be key.
I would have thought anyone holding Nvidia would be better sitting on it right now...
I would have thought anyone holding Nvidia would be better sitting on it right now...
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, Panasonic is still quite damp: (down 34% YTD)
At the current pace of 1 new bty cell line per Quarter, GF1 would take 16 years to reach full 150 GWh/yr capacity. Even at 1 new line / month, it will take 5 years to full capacity (2023).
Tesla needs to watch this carefully, and be ready to act if necessary to ensure a timely battery supply at GF1.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Good analysis. They should do it. How many Semis do you estimate Tesla to need in their fleet?
Other fleet operators are going to be so jealous.
"What really matters is time to volume production, not initial market intro."
-- Elon
-- Elon
The Bloomberg article about GF2 is not terrible, and gives a lot of color and info that we previously did not know.
It's quite evident that Musk has been very focused on Model 3, and there was lack of leadership and focus on the solar side of the business.
I'd *love* for Musk to stay in Buffalo for few weeks, a failure could bite Tesla in the ass.
Everyone has been very patient on this, and critic is IMO deserved.
It's quite evident that Musk has been very focused on Model 3, and there was lack of leadership and focus on the solar side of the business.
I'd *love* for Musk to stay in Buffalo for few weeks, a failure could bite Tesla in the ass.
Everyone has been very patient on this, and critic is IMO deserved.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
YES its going down. Down to 0.
Beter sell NOW if you want your family to have ANY food !
Crash Crash Crash. SELL NOW ! SELL NOW !
Yours Truly
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times
PS I just know this will work.
Beter sell NOW if you want your family to have ANY food !
Crash Crash Crash. SELL NOW ! SELL NOW !
Yours Truly
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times
PS I just know this will work.
erha
Member
Hi to all TMC friends. I'd just like to share a small happy story here.
In 2012 i bought my first TSLA stock right about the time I was finishing high school. Over the years I've been slowly adding to my position with money I've made in summer internships while being a student.
Today, I bought an appartement in Oslo and the downpayment for the appartement (15%) is solely from gains in TSLA. Stay patient, friends. Wealth accumulates over time.
And no, I'm not finished as a TSLA investor. I'm keeping most of my shares, and I might actually use some margin to keep my exposure close to what it's been the last couple of years.
Thanks to all the insightful investors here on this forum
In 2012 i bought my first TSLA stock right about the time I was finishing high school. Over the years I've been slowly adding to my position with money I've made in summer internships while being a student.
Today, I bought an appartement in Oslo and the downpayment for the appartement (15%) is solely from gains in TSLA. Stay patient, friends. Wealth accumulates over time.
And no, I'm not finished as a TSLA investor. I'm keeping most of my shares, and I might actually use some margin to keep my exposure close to what it's been the last couple of years.
Thanks to all the insightful investors here on this forum
anthonyj
Stonks
Tesla is my only holding right now (apart from some puts on some tech stocks) but this current market looks insanely scary. Scariest premarket in tech in a long time.
If a Tesla driver is trying to maximize their effective traveling speed, then they will not charge to 100%.
Rather, the optimal approach is to arrive at the SuperCharger with a low SoC and then stop charging once there is range enough to get to the next SC station (or, if the charging power remains maxed out, until it starts to decrease).
Especially when high-speed driving is possible, 180 kW makes quite a difference compared to 120 kW.
For 180 kW charging the maximum, effective driving speed of a LR Model 3 of 145 km/h is reached when actually driving ca. 220 km/h.
Compare that to 120 kW charging where the maximum, effective driving speed of a LR Model 3 of 125 km/h is reached when actually driving ca. 190 km/h.
(The above numbers are from this plot:
https://www.eso.org/~llundin/optispeedplot.pdf
- which itself is based on these considerations
https://www.eso.org/~llundin/optispeed.pdf )
shlokavica22
Member
I like your optimism, but the macro doesn't look good at all.
Agreed, but I think $TSLA being dicked with to match macro...
Hard to think with this foil-hat on though...
Yeah, I usually keep going until the charge drops below 100KWh, or of course when I have enough to next destination, which is distance+100kms
Given the IBD pump article suggesting CwH, the bulls ought be very aware that this "pattern" and advertisement of it could just as well catch a lot of chart monkey money in the wrong way
Advice from a 24 yo?
My first stock market success led to MANY subsequent failures. I changed my ways. Not advice.
Hi to all TMC friends. I'd just like to share a small happy story here.
In 2012 i bought my first TSLA stock right about the time I was finishing high school. Over the years I've been slowly adding to my position with money I've made in summer internships while being a student.
Today, I bought an appartement in Oslo and the downpayment for the appartement (15%) is solely from gains in TSLA. Stay patient, friends. Wealth accumulates over time.
And no, I'm not finished as a TSLA investor. I'm keeping most of my shares, and I might actually use some margin to keep my exposure close to what it's been the last couple of years.
Thanks to all the insightful investors here on this forum
Advice from a 24 yo?
My first stock market success led to MANY subsequent failures. I changed my ways. Not advice.
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