TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[neroden]

Elon advertising for the competition


Elon Musk on Twitter

Promoting the mission!

Also, there are 3 Teslas and 6 other cars on that list.

- One of which you can't get because they ran out (the Ioniq).
- For four of the others, unless you live in a few major cities, the nearest dealer is further away than the car's range, so large portions of the country can't buy them without great difficulty.
- The Bolt is a nice car

 

[Fact Checking]

It will not be a supply issue but a demand issue. Lets see what happens after the US rebates are reduced and the Europe demand is filled in a quarter or two.

The never ending bear case of lying about "being worried" about Tesla's demand while in reality "hoping that demand would drop".

Demand for Tesla products probably won't drop anytime this decade:

• Sometime in the second half of 2019 the China Gigafactory might start assembling cars and having their marginal cost of production drop by ~65%.
• Based on early feedback and on historic patterns I can see even top end Model 3 European demand (Performance and LR versions) last all of 2019: the sedan market is much larger than in the U.S., and because the purchase power of new car customers is lower than in the U.S. (which shifts demand to less expensive cars),
  
• But Q1-Q2 next year Tesla is going to introduce the Standard Range Model 3 - the same high gross margin product, just at an even lower price point. Every $1,000 reduction in the entry price unlocks about 1-2% of the total vehicle market, which in the U.S. alone are ~150k new customers per year who can suddenly afford a cool Tesla instead of an overpriced, expensive to maintain, future-unsafe ICE vehicle. Reduction from the current $46k entry price to $39k and then to ~$35k will unlock a lot of new demand in the U.S. alone...
• Around March 15 next year Tesla is going to unveil the Model Y, with a possible crazy new phase of pre-ordering, increased media attention, more demand created for their sedans or the X ...

Lower fuel prices will also have a big effect on reducing demand

In the wet dreams of Mark Spiegel perhaps - but then he wakes up and has to brush his teeth while checking $TSLA prices:

Because looking at the $TSLA price and checking the current value of his Tesla short position is leaving a very bad taste in his mouth, every single day.

 

[KarenRei]

In the wet dreams of Mark Spiegel perhaps - but then he wakes up and has to brush his teeth while checking $TSLA prices:

Because looking at the $TSLA price and checking the current value of his Tesla short position left a very bad taste in his mouth, every single day.

I swear, that has to be one of the funniest pictures ever taken of someone trying to present themselves as a "serious" investment manager. It's meme fodder. What on Earth was he thinking, letting them (or worse, having them) take a picture of him like that? Talk about bad judgment...

 

[Fact Checking]

Over the past hour, TSLA has really dropped premarket, while the macros have remained largely unchanged or improved.

The relevant macro, NASDAQ-100 futures, gave back about a third of its weekend gains - and dropped around the time $TSLA dropped in the pre-market. Not disagreeing though - Elon's bankwuptcy comments could be the holiday-dip gift you were waiting for.

 

[neroden]

i don't know how to make it sticky...if you know how to do it please let me know.



Thanks and corrected!

MOD: Not only will it not be made sticky, but this kind of activity, while neither prohibited nor otherwise squelched, is directly contrary to sobersided admonitions from the Moderator Bench in terms of how forum members ought demonstrate their holdlings in TSLA.
Moreover, the exclusion from participating of just an extremely small number of active members who hold very significant positions immediately renders utterly useless this exercise - so what, really, would this accomplish?

I think it's a sufficiently vague and anonymous survey that it's not going to reveal anyone's individual holdings. And what the results already are revealing is that the mode (modal value) range of TSLA investment on this forum is in the $100K-$500K range, so not big fish, but also not tiny minnows.

Which I actually think is interesting. This forum's members as a group can't move the market long-term and aren't withholding a meaningful percentage of shares from short-sellers. (Which is not to deny that there might be one billionaire on here, keeping quiet. Or, of course, that others silently reading the forum might be influenced.)

Also, it means typical investors on this forum are in a range where it's worth it to worry about breaking an order up into small pieces to avoid moving the market; dumping a $500K order on the market all at once *is* a bad idea.

 

[KarenRei]

Elon's bankwuptcy comments could be the holiday-dip gift you were waiting for.

Merry Christmas to me

 

[neroden]

People might find the information useful in many ways, but my main motivation is to show that readers of this forum hold significant amount of tsla investment (probably in billions,) and we collectively have a meaningful impact on the market.

I think you demonstrated that we don't, which is why I appreciated the survey.

 

[SageBrush]

What are they celebrating about? That when Tesla was close to failing that they pulled through and came out the other side stronger? (For the second time. And that Elon said he will never pull a bet-the-company product launch again?)

I doubt that Tesla is done betting the farm. It goes against their mission statement. I expect the next ulcer inducing period to be the Tesla truck. Not the Semi, the truck for Merkins. I just hope that the energy business is a bedrock by then.

 

[neroden]

Elon "Well, I mean Tesla really faced this fear, threat of death due to the model 3 production ramp. Essentially the company was bleeding money like crazy and just if we didn't solve these problems in a very short period of time, we would die and was extremely difficult to solve them."

HBO Axios 'How close to death did you come?"

Elon "We [went] within single digit weeks."

When the Model 3 ramp started being delayed in September 2017, I remember thinking "Hmm, they have enough cash to manage about a year of delay". They used all of that time. So this makes sense. Still, "single digit weeks" could be 9 weeks.

 

[Unpilot]

Rivian is set.to unveil its pickup today.

Rivian unveils all-electric pickup truck with unbelievable specs

 

[Fact Checking]

What on Earth was he thinking, letting them (or worse, having them) take a picture of him like that? Talk about bad judgment...

So I think that photo was part of the transparent spiel of the recent Washington Post article that falsely portrayed Tesla short sellers as the "little guys" who are fighting against the "behemoth" Tesla and who are not really out for the money but to support Truth and Each Other. The picture, I suppose, was intended to make it easier to relate to Spiegel as an "everyday guy", not a (formerly...) wealthy Wall Street speculator with his Tesla trade gone very wrong.

As such the article was a spectacular fail if I've ever seen one: even the WP readers comment section which is usually easy to impress in an anti-Tesla direction didn't buy it.

That picture is nevertheless an iconic meme: to me it's documenting the moment Spiegel woke up to a pop in the $TSLA stock price, at which point he threw up a little in his mouth:

Fortunately the photo of his laptop screen has just enough pixels for me to utilize my (limited) CSI image enhancement skills, Spiegel was most likely looking at this chart:

We even have a smiley character here on TMC for the "Spiegel moment":

 

[neroden]

I wish electrification was driving oil prices but it's too early for that.

Oil is going down because deflationary pressures are taking hold due to rising interest rates. If the Fed pauses on its rate increase strategy, oil will pop back up and follow normal supply and demand.

No, it's the "drill like there's no tomorrow" phenomenon. In other words, it's supply-driven. Demand is dropping (probably due to higher MPG cars, and the slow elimination of non-transport usage of oil), but it's only dropping a little teeny bit. Supply is booming due to irrational exuberance by drillers in the Permian.

 

[kbM3]

carsonight a day ago

"I can tell you as a fact that at GF1 they are consistently above 5k Model 3 packs per week. What employees are hearing there is that they need to be at 7k by Christmas if they want that day off.

"In the auto industry, if demand is falling off the factory or factories slow down. Shifts are cancelled and employees are laid off. What I am hearing is just the opposite. The factory ran right through Thanksgiving, employees can work overtime any time they feel like it, and the factory is going to run full blast right through the holidays.

"You can pick your rumors wherever you want to, but I can tell you what is going on."
​

Nothing really newsworthy here, carsonight is just playing whack-a-mole with one of the most disingenuous trolls on DISQUS.

CH3ERS!

Maybe not newsworthy, but two things jumped out at me.

1) I periodically check Troy’s spreadsheet and he has never shown 5k/week production estimate. Today he did show 4571, which is higher than normal. I realize pack production leads car production, so if Troy is as accurate as he has been and carsonight is correct, we should see Troy’s sheet upgrade to 5k/week very soon.
2) Elon’s leaked email stated 50 units/hour SUSTAINED per subsystem. I was over-optimistically hoping that meant December production at 7k/week sustained. In light of carsonight’s comment I now think 7k/week burst is the goal for end of December, hopefully meaning 7k/week sustained in early q1?

 

[Unpilot]

Pre-market head fake.

 

[avoigt]

(...) According to the latest news, the longer-range Nissan LEAF (with a 60 kWh battery), which was expected to be launched a year after the introduction of the base second-generation LEAF with 40 kWh battery, is postponed.

The reasons behind the postponement are the allegations and arrest of Carlos Ghosn, who led Nissan (for years as CEO and most recently as Chairman of the Board). Ghosn is seen as the father of Nissan LEAF, which was introduced in 2010. This postponement could be an in-your-face move to shun Ghosn one last time. (...)

Nissan Postpones Launch Of 60-kWh LEAF e-Plus

GM stops Volt production
David Shepardson on Twitter

 

[Fact Checking]

I doubt that Tesla is done betting the farm. It goes against their mission statement. I expect the next ulcer inducing period to be the Tesla truck. Not the Semi, the truck for Merkins. I just hope that the energy business is a bedrock by then.

I think Elon was very clear about not launching "betting the farm" products, ever again.

Instead I think Tesla will standardize on "betting the barn" products - which is a recoverable event if it doesn't work out.

It's also the norm once a firm is past beyond a certain size - which Tesla now certainly is. Apple's iPhone experiment wasn't a "bet the farm" product, still the outcome ultimately increased the value of the company 10-fold.

 

[Joe F]

What on Earth was he thinking, letting them (or worse, having them) take a picture of him like that? Talk about bad judgment...

You're surprised he has bad judgement? He's demonstrated that trait endlessly.

 

[elasalle]

Should we short because it was on the brink, or should we buy because it overcame the dire issues ?

 

[printf42]

2. It painted a picture of vulnerable Tesla. Tesla was close to "die" twice. So why not the third time?

Because they had two “bet the company” product launches.
And they don’t need to do that anymore down the road for all the things coming out of the pipeline.

 

[AndyH]

• Sometime in the second half of 2019 the China Gigafactory might start assembling cars and having their marginal cost of production drop by ~65%

1 million plug-ins and EVs sold in China this year. Tesla has the best product and factory in China next year. This is good.