TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[EVNow]

And if Tesla were to consider buying a GM plant in Michigan, as part of the deal the state may have to allow Tesla stores and service centers.

Very, Very low bar. Since Tesla doesn't have cash laying around, they need the government to secure zero/low interest long term loan. Hey, the rich fat banks keep getting zero interest loans ?!

 

[kbeckley]

Makes me so frustrated. The Ontario government panders to make the tax credit try to exclude Tesla's, and lift up GM, then bam. I feel sorry for the jobs lost. Maybe Tesla should geographically diversify? Approach the government for huge tax breaks, and take over the Oshawa plant. After the feds bought a pipeline, and the province lost a court battle to Tesla, they could use it to paint themselves in 'greener' light. Might be some advantages to Tesla as well, if the trade wear escalates, for steel etc.

I think of this announcement by GM as the 'end of the beginning' of the transportation electrification revolution. Separately, I do not agree that all these OEMs are in huge trouble (as some feel on this board) - just the ones last to the table. Unfortunately there are millions of ICE cars still to be sold. My overriding concern is will this revolution happen before the >1.5C temp rise is a certainty.

I have been long Tesla since just after the IPO and have added since, companies that change the world in a positive way do not come around very often.

 

[neroden]

They would probably find it hard to refuse the hundreds of millions of reasons Tesla could offer, plus the big PR headache GM would get itself rid of.

The bigger problem is Koch influence I suspect, which is particularly present in the current Canadian government? PM Ford would never support Tesla in Canada, I suspect.

Doubt that PM Ford would be able to stop it. Also, although he's a nut, he's a car nut. And the Ford brothers are not really Koch-influenced, they're just stupid.

Lordstown would probably be the cheapest factory to get, but I think it's an awful location. Even harder to get workers to move there than to Sparks, NV.

Oshawa's a great location, despite the chance of customs delays at the border. If Michigan offered a good enough deal Hamtramck might make sense but Oshawa's the only one I'd really have my eye on.

Oshawa has its own PORT and it's only 2 miles from the factory location -- Tesla could ship cars directly to Europe (or South America, or Africa) if they were willing to use St. Lawrence Seaway size ships.

Actually I really think Oshawa would be a prize location. Excellent highway, rail, and sea connections for freight (direct connections to *two* railroads, so that they have to compete on price and service); excellent highway and passenger rail connections for workers; attractive location for workers; well east of the Chicago rail bottlenecks, and close to the large Northeast Cortridor market; roughly a square mile of space with room to expand to the west if needed.

 

[Fact Checking]

True -- drilling new wells is still generally unprofitable, however. I don't really know why they keep doing it; my best analysis is that it's a psychological problem. They want to be "oilmen" and so they want to drill wells whether profitable or not.

I suppose it's inertia: a big chunk of the "oil industry" goes away if you take out research and drilling. So most problems in the oil industry are solved by using the hammer of drilling more holes.

It's also a shrinking echo chamber with global warming denial and "peak oil" delusion running deep.

The "the oil industry has no real future" reality and mindset has not set in yet - and those who have that mindset mostly left or haven't joined to begin with.

 

[cheshire cat]

Not a lot of monty python fans in the room I'm guessing.

"It's a mans life in mining, father"

 

[UncaNed]

Not a lot of monty python fans in the room I'm guessing.

Sorry. Had to.

 

[ZachF]

Wow, that's pathetic. The Volt is easily the best plug-in hybrid out there. GM never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity, does it?

They make snatching defeat from the jaws of victory into an art form.

 

[dmunjal]

Subtle but important point. The deflating asset bubble does not cause a recession *unless* the asset values have been transformed into liquid money in some fashion. If it has, the drop in asset values translates to a drop in circulating money. If it hasn't, it doesn't.

In the housing crisis, the (faked) asset values of the houses --> the valuation of the mortgages --> the valuation of the mortgage-backed securities --> the valuation of the "collateralized debt obligations" made up of slices of MBS --> the valuation of the money market funds which put their money in the CDOs. The revelation that the mortgages were no good meant the money market funds were no good.

In 1929, the inflated values of stocks --> inflated values for overnight loans from banks to brokerages --> inflated values for bank balance sheets. So when the stocks crashed, the loans from banks to brokerages went bad, and the banks became insolvent, so there was a bank run.

For an asset bubble bursting to trigger a recession, there has to be a transmission mechanism between the asset value and the money markets. There are a lot of these. It's good when government OUTLAWS the transmission mechanisms, because it makes for a much more stable economy.

Right now, it might be people borrowing against stocks, like it was in 1929. Stocks drop -> margin loans are called in -> people have less money. But I don't see signs of big overextension there, though I may have missed them.

Perfectly explained. This time, I think it will be the default of corporate debt that will cause the next crisis. GE is an example of this.

 

[Fact Checking]

Unfortunately there are millions of ICE cars still to be sold. My overriding concern is will this revolution happen before the >1.5C temp rise is a certainty

Probably up to a billion ICE vehicles will be made and sold in the next ~20 years - at lower and lower prices.

That's ~10-20 trillion dollars of future revenue that they don't want to give up.

My overriding concern is will this revolution happen before the >1.5C temp rise is a certainty

+3C looks probable at this point, and let's pray and/or hope it's not +5C.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Wow, that's pathetic. The Volt is easily the best plug-in hybrid out there. GM never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity, does it?

It's a sedan/low hatchback.
It's made at a sedan factory.
The tax credit will begin dropping in 2019Q2.
It's only worth 1.3 credits in CARB states and 2 credits (Buick Velite) in China.
There are large import taxes into China.
GM sold their EU arm.

No point in making it any more.

It's the best PHEV (and now we'll have to look for something else in a few years) but that's not enough.

 

[kbeckley]

Obviously it’s a matter of personal perspective, except in this case we bloody well know Elon is going to show us the attic, every single time.

So stop acting surprised, outraged, disappointed, perturbed et al... He’s going to take us by the hand and walk us up the hidden staircase to the attic and then down to the basement, it’s just a matter of time. If this is something you don’t want to see, know or hear then get out. Get out and never come back.

You have no basis to complain about that which you know is going to happen. It’s like being annoyed you’re getting rained on when you walked out the door, saw the thinder clouds and opted to not grab an umbrella.

Elon's honesty is highly refreshing and important. Having said that I do think Tesla had access to the capital markets at any time if really needed. Elon just really really does not want to do that. My take is that he wants no further dilution of his own level of control.

 

[Artful Dodger]

5,110,566 shares of TSLA traded at the mid-way point of the trading session.

On track for over 10M shares today, locked onto $341.90 while bucking two NASDAQ-100 downtrends today.

CH3ERS!

 

[EVNow]

I've found the IV, theta, and vega measurements to be useful for TSLA trading. I tend to ignore delta and gamma, which don't work for TSLA.

Interesting, I've not paid much attention to theta & vega. I'll do some homework.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Interesting, I've not paid much attention to theta & vega. I'll do some homework.

I've learned more about options in the last two months than I even knew there was to know in the first place.

Does that even make sense? I need more coffee.

 

[Fact Checking]

Doubt that PM Ford would be able to stop it. Also, although he's a nut, he's a car nut. And the Ford brothers are not really Koch-influenced, they're just stupid.

I think Tesla factories are hotly sought investments by local governments, partly due to its inspirational nature, and partly due to the "Tesla growth effect" that happened in the Reno area.

I'd guess that Tesla would pick a new Gigafactory site with full buy-in and support at every level of government: this is what happened in China when Elon met the personal friend and right hand of the Chinese President:

Tesla would probably insist on similar levels of political support, especially with rising tariff tensions between the U.S. and Canada.

 

[thait84]

I'm happy with my buy on a $250 Feb '19 at $99,51. We'll see where it goes.

Still rather annoyed that the $18k I transferred to Interactive Brokers hasn't been registered yet. Hope the price stays down long enough for me to get to buy more calls at a good price

I bought $260 Feb '19 calls at 83 this morning!

 

[EVNow]

Wow, that's pathetic. The Volt is easily the best plug-in hybrid out there. GM never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity, does it?

This is a sad day. First GM closes Volt. Next Nissan postpones 60 kWh Leaf. They started the plugin rebirth in 2010.

Probably shows GM & Nissan are saying they can't compete with Model 3. The only way for them to compete would be to offer 60 kWh cars for about $5k less than Model 3. May be the fact that the tax credit is ending had something to do with Volt closure as well.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Question to the technical traders: would a close above the mid-BB today be seen as a significantly bullish sign indicative of likely further upward movement (EDIT: in the short term)?

 

[EVNow]

I've learned more about options in the last two months than I even knew there was to know in the first place.

Does that even make sense? I need more coffee.

Only the knowledgeable knows, how little he knows.

 

[neroden]

Perfectly explained. This time, I think it will be the default of corporate debt that will cause the next crisis. GE is an example of this.

Since 2008, money market funds aren't allowed to hold anything except government debt. So *that* channel is closed off. People don't seem to be borrowing that much against stocks or bonds.

The remaining channel is bank failures. What junk have the megabanks been throwing their money at? What is going to bankrupt them? That's the question. If we could see Morgan Stanley's balance sheet and Goldman Sachs's and Bank of America's, we'd be able to tell where the crash would come from.