try to balance out your strategy! Yeah numbers have been good and i am also long TSLA too, but are you aware that we are at the brink of a bear market? High growth shares like TSLA are usually the first one's which are getting sold. This is mainly what we've been seeing over the past weeks. With all this political and economic uncertainty we have right now, i would never want to be in the margin. What do you do, if we hit 200? If you are unbalanced like that you have no dry powder to buy, worse you may get margin called and have to sell.
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try to balance out your strategy! Yeah numbers have been good and i am also long TSLA too, but are you aware that we are at the brink of a bear market? High growth shares like TSLA are usually the first one's which are getting sold. This is mainly what we've been seeing over the past weeks. With all this political and economic uncertainty we have right now, i would never want to be in the margin. What do you do, if we hit 200? If you are unbalanced like that you have no dry powder to buy, worse you may get margin called and have to sell.
dc_h
Active Member
Looks like a trade policy macro sale today. China proposed added 25% tariffs on imported cars.
Right but how does it work as Tesla already pays 25%? I'm assuming we don't know.
Reciprocity
Active Member
It does appear to be accurate when looking back 3 weeks or so, but very inaccurate to determine what is happening this week. Because of the nature of the ramp, it will always understate what's happening until well after it happens. I don't think it's something you can really model where you update the data every few days and your sources are limited to people putting in their vins and weekly VIN registration at the nhtsa. Even if you look at that model today, it doesn't show 2000/w which the CEO just said they are doing.
They have most recently added a trend which is forward looking. I don't know exactly what they use to get that, but it does appear to be pretty accurate as well. I wish it was there before, because I think it would have been very helpful for investors that look to Bloomberg as an actual news source. I will definitely keep my eye on it's projections, because they do seem to be more inline with what we are being told and see here in this forum and others. However, their updates still lag compared to just going to @Troy sheets and doing your own projections.
bdy0627
Active Member
Based on futures, it looks like market support levels will get taken out with gusto today. I'm not looking forward to that primarily because of the effect on TSLA. We are back down to $254 premarket. Shorts are back in control here short term. TSLA can't climb unless the market supports it.
dc_h
Active Member
Either 25% added to existing 25% or 56.25% tariff or 50%. I’d guess 50%. Hopefully this all gets ironed out. The idea seems to be to hold everyone hostage for everything. N Korea peace, s Korea trade, japan trade and China in one big high risk gambit. If it works, it will be great for tsla and everyone. If it fails, Audubon has a great place in the country. .
I feel like the only reason TSLA went over 300 is because of Tencent.
We need an other multi billion dollars investment in TSLA if we really want to see the needle move. Or multiple hundreds of millions of dollars poured into.
The question is when will that happen.
"Trade wars are good and easy to win"
I really hope that no one here is massively leveraged into calls today. It's not going to be pretty because there's no floor to market pressure as long as these tariffs are on the table. China is sending a clear message today that they are not to be messed around with and it's not clear that anyone on the American side has enough intelligence to hear that message.
The market isn't going to support anything for weeks unless it's announced tomorrow that everyone was just kidding and all the tariffs are canceled.
I really hope that no one here is massively leveraged into calls today. It's not going to be pretty because there's no floor to market pressure as long as these tariffs are on the table. China is sending a clear message today that they are not to be messed around with and it's not clear that anyone on the American side has enough intelligence to hear that message.
Here's the full list of US products that China is planning to hit with tariffs
Tariffs are on varvious types of ice cars.
BEVs seem to be excempted.
Tariffs are on varvious types of ice cars.
BEVs seem to be excempted.
The problem is China has been taking advantage of the U.S. for a very long time but we have never had someone willing to take the heat and get the lopsided trade back on level playing field. I know it hurts now but in the longterm it’s going to allow us to compete on a level playing field.
Also, China has to stop stealing our intellectual property! There are patents and other forms of protection to protect individuals and companies. When a Nation completely ignores this and willingly copies patent merchandise in order to benefit their Country its not good and I personally am willing to take this short term volatility in order to prevent this.
If China even slightly comes our direction and halfway levels the playing field you will see markets gain all its dips plus add 15% in a very rapid time.
That’s interesting since $TSLA dropped so sharply premarket on this announcement. I assume many saw headline and shorted. Wonder if we will see a turnaround if this becomes common knowledge. I sure hope so!
Runarbt
Active Member
Sure does.. specifies very clearly it is ICE cars, in every paragraph.
Runarbt
Active Member
Might take a while for ppl to realize this. Might not even matter, as macro pushes down and dont care about details?
It does for most of the paragraphs, but unfortunately the last two car paragraphs make it clear that EVs are included too:
58. Other vehicles that only drive the motor
59. Other vehicles
Runarbt
Active Member
Unfortunately, the acquisition of SCTY added considerable net losses to Tesla's Income Statement going forward; only a small fraction of that effect appeared in the 4Q16 financials. Also, the benefit of regulatory credit income scales inversely as the volume of cars delivered increases. So, perhaps closer to "break even" but probably not profitable, unless R&D spending is severely curtailed.
Without trade war now US lost 375 billion dollar a year on trade deficit
With trade war US will only lose 100 billion dollar a year on exports to China!
With trade war China will lose 500 billion exports and 375 billion surplus a year
Lol
With trade war US will only lose 100 billion dollar a year on exports to China!
With trade war China will lose 500 billion exports and 375 billion surplus a year
Lol
thout
DurandalAI
Member
IF we could bring all manufacturing back to the US, then that would prove beneficial, and it may be that some moves back to the US, but if the tariffs stick, then it is more likely that manufacturing would move to another low cost country for manufacturing instead.
That said, China owns a lot of US debt, they could crush our economy if they wanted to, but at the peril of hurting their own as well.
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