TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[azaz]

people really think that just because Elon's former assistant said it didn't happen means it didn't happen?

Guess that means every coach in sports that gets the dreaded vote of confidence from management doesn't actually get fired.

Must mean that every person that Trump feuds with only for both Trump and the individual to deny doesn't actually end up leaving quietly a short while later.

Y'all have to understand that just because what's reported disagrees with what you think its not bs. I mean Wired is a decent news org that just recently did a giant Elon cover story where multiple very close Elon associated ppl trusted Wired enough to go on the record. Does that mean Wired wasn't purposely fed misleading at times info during the reporting process, not at all.

 

[Cherry Wine]

The S&P is starting to approach @defc0n's key 2581 support level.

 

[KarenRei]

people really think that just because Elon's former assistant said it didn't happen means it didn't happen?

Guess that means every coach in sports that gets the dreaded vote of confidence from management doesn't actually get fired.

Must mean that every person that Trump feuds with only for both Trump and the individual to deny doesn't actually end up leaving quietly a short while later.

Y'all have to understand that just because what's reported disagrees with what you think its not bs. I mean Wired is a decent news org that just recently did a giant Elon cover story where multiple very close Elon associated ppl trusted Wired enough to go on the record. Does that mean Wired wasn't purposely fed misleading at times info during the reporting process, not at all.

Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus.

There's plenty in that article that's demonstrable, well known distortions - presenting Tripp as an "employee who spoke out", presenting Musk as lashing out at a journalist for no reason when said journalist published information given in confidence, etc, etc. If you show your hand as deliberately creating a hit piece, why should we take what you write as anything but a hit piece?

And again: non-disparagement agreements, while not "standard", are not rare. But clauses that say you need to lie to the media are pure conspiracy theory land.

Also, question: How did this topic start back up in this thread again?

 

[Cherry Wine]

"Dissenting voices" are welcome. People insisting that they're so much smarter than everyone else aren't.

Feel free to think it. But learn some basic social interaction skills. Believe it or not, "I'm so much smarter than you" isn't exactly a powerful persuasive stance.

Agreed. My point still stands, however.

 

[oneday]

Still looking to reinvest my sales of the Dec 21 375 calls from yesterday. It's interesting we are seeing the exact same pattern as last week with a big drop on Friday (perhaps due to market makers). Last week seemed like a no brainer to buy 2 week out calls on a quick dip, this week those 2 week out calls expire during a holiday week, historically not TSLA strong area.

I'm thinking of buying a couple Dec 28 400's ($2.6 now) as lottos, and the rest in Feb 15 380's ($30.75 now). Just thinking out loud.

Anyone else looking to deleverage a bit over the upcoming holiday? My other consideration is going just ITM Feb 15 365 ($38.55).

 

[KarenRei]

Still looking to reinvest my sales of the Dec 21 375 calls from yesterday. It's interesting we are seeing the exact same pattern as last week with a big drop on Friday (perhaps due to market makers). Last week seemed like a no brainer to buy 2 week out calls on a quick dip, this week those 2 week out calls expire during a holiday week, historically not TSLA strong area.

I'm thinking of buying a couple Dec 28 400's ($2.6 now) as lottos, and the rest in Feb 15 380's ($30.75 now). Just thinking out loud.

Anyone else looking to deleverage a bit over the upcoming holiday? My other consideration is going just ITM Feb 15 365 ($38.55).

I'm pretty happy with my amount of liquidity right now (about 15% of my investment assets in cash). I'd actually prefer to be a bit more leveraged. But it's certainly hard to see which way things are going to head here in the short term. The general forces driving this slow short squeeze are quite real, but we've risen so much that eventually there's going to be temptation for many people to profit-take to buy other stocks that are depressed right now.

One note: Consumer Reports usually releases their consumer satisfaction figures in mid to late December. Tesla usually tops the list, which will combat the standard Model 3 quality / satisfaction FUD. I don't expect that to be a huge market mover, but it might be worth a little bit.

 

[SpaceCash]

362 close, calling it now

I would find any close above 366 quite bullish indeed

 

[AlexS]

it's actually really cool that twitter posts by non relevant users to the company can trigger such a drop in share price.

I cannot believe it, how well it worked. but at least Chanos can cover some today in the end of the day,

 

[Buckminster]

Neroden - I am hoping that you haven't gone anywhere. I can feel your anger from here... As a reminder - from your last argument with Factchecking
:

Can you please stop arguing - it's making me sad. Anyway, I've decided, I'm gonna live with Dad and Aunty Grimes anyway - Neroden hasn't even got my room ready with all this building working going on.

Is the room ready for me? I like my eggs in bed if it's not too much bother. Sunny side up - none of this American "over easy" stuff..

 

[Joshker]

Max pain for today?

 

[mrwuffles]

Oh man, loving this price action Come on, get low enough for me to burn my "spare change" in my IB account ~$367 doesn't cut it.

Yeah, only wish this were Jan or Feb, so I could get some April or May monthly calls for after Mar '19 convertibles. A lot of TSLAQ prob think that will be catalyst for decline, combined with Q1 "demand problem" at lower tax credit. Personally, I want to wait for Y unveil and may buy another 3 at that point if the Y is not what we're looking for. $3,750 isn't going to make it or break it for most people paying $35k+ for a car.

 

[winfield100]

LOL, wow. Desperation.

Sheesh, I look at maximum-pain, and stock price and wonder ^^. What if someone hijacked that site or posted TSLA max pain with higher numbers if there would suddenly be a strange chaotic price attractor to pull the price suddenly UP

SO......^^ did you know max pain for options today jumped to $380!!!

 

[anthonyj]

I would find any close above 366 quite bullish indeed

Low float makes it so easy to manipulate short term. We will make new highs next week for sure, but I won’t be surprised to see $362. We saw something similar last Friday, $379-$357. They just have to kill options

 

[winfield100]

I guess now is when it heads to max pain....

No, maximum pain is $380. ^^

 

[tivoboy]

What's your SP entry target for buying the Feb19 calls?

Well, I'd love to get the Feb 370$ for 25$ (or less), (probably <30$ is a decent entry) and then sell the 395$ for 25$ (which is what it trades for now, but I'm not to enter this naked. This morning it was 40$/30$ entry into the spread. For the higher strikes I was looking at sub 20$ for the 400 call (to buy) and trying to get 15$ (later) for the 425$ call to SELL.. making it 5$ for the 25$ spread at those levels in Feb.

 

[mrwuffles]

Tesla Prepares $837 Million Sale of Car-Lease Debt

Didn't see anyone post this before. Sorry if it's a repost.

 

[tivoboy]

Max pain for today?

~360

 

[mrwuffles]

~360

Wish maximum pain site would show today's expiry. The History part of their site doesn't work for me.

 

[winfield100]

~360

Mistype
Max pain is $380
^^

 

[Cherry Wine]

Well, I'd love to get the Feb 370$ for 25$ (or less), (probably <30$ is a decent entry) and then sell the 395$ for 25$ (which is what it trades for now, but I'm not to enter this naked. This morning it was 40$/30$ entry into the spread. For the higher strikes I was looking at sub 20$ for the 400 call (to buy) and trying to get 15$ (later) for the 425$ call to SELL.. making it 5$ for the 25$ spread at those levels in Feb.

Feb $370c at $25 or less would require stock to drop into the $350s, correct? I think the week between Christmas and New Year's, or indexes breaking down key supports, are your best bet. Would you still enter into the stock under the latter scenario?