TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[EVNow]

Wow.... you run a hedge fund with your wife as your main client..... that's ballsy.

LOL. No - I'm my own client. So, I don't get any manager's fees that I can pay long term cap gains on

 

[Fact Checking]

We got our 3 Sept. 23, have few miles on it, and many questions. What about chains, we may have to drive in snow this Christmas?

I believe the rigid "easy fit" ones are the best, take seconds to install and are hard to install incorrectly:

What contributes to drain of miles when parked?

I believe most "battery phantom drain" in Teslas is related to:

• the battery management system preventing the pack from over or under heating. This can run for a while right after a trip when you are technically already parking - but the heating/cooling is in reality a delayed response to the trip.
• cabin overheat protection system,
• communications overhead in marginal cellular reception areas (such as radio shielded garages),
• the 12V battery will be recharged from the main battery if its voltage drops too much,
• sometimes sleep/wakeup bugs in the OS - thought to be mostly fixed.

"Normal" drain is 3% or lower per day, for ~90% of users:

Tesla Model 3 "Phantom Drain" compared to Model S and Model X​

I'd report 5%+ drain to Tesla if it looks wrong.

 

[Unpilot]

Does that agreement cover car purchases?
Car purchases that she has explicitly opposed?

Don't be stupid - talk to her.

I think perhaps this was said as humor. I found it funny but understand if others don't. Such is human nature.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Someone in the Dutch subforum was told yesterday at the Tilburg delivery center (where all cars for customers in The Netherlands are delivered) that they expect to deliver 1000 cars next week. It’s the big end of the year push before the fiscal rules for business cars change and low taxes only apply to 50,000 euro of the value of the car.

 

[dc_h]

I wonder if a Megapack could be modified into a semi-trailer for the Tesla semi. I like the idea of a mobile Tesla battery transporting sunlight across the country.

Great product for FEMA. Combine with a rollout solar panel to power emergency services.

 

[HG Wells]

Does that agreement cover car purchases?
Car purchases that she has explicitly opposed?

Don't be stupid - talk to her.

She has told me to get it several times. Only recently has she turned against it.
She is the boss in the family.
I refer to her as "She who must be obeyed"(Rumpole of the Bailey)
I learned a long time ago to agree with everything she says, no matter what.
It's not a 50/50 marriage. Not even a 90/10.

 

[Unpilot]

What's with everybody changing their profile pictures?
Did I miss a memo?

 

[wipster]

Just checking...

Edit: seems ok, I'm just as ugly as before.

 

[Fact Checking]

Why a person would think that hiding a major financial decision from their spouse is okay is beyond me.

It's often a slippery slope that isn't a single major financial decision, but a small bet gone well, then a doubled position size gone really wrong. Then "I'll win this back now for sure and nothing happened ...". A few bad events down the road and it can become a nightmare.

Margin and leverage makes this really easy, and there's a large number of retail broker-dealers who make it easy for customers to become over-leveraged. Buying in a customer's margin called short position after or before trading can be very lucrative. Being the counterparty of "dumb money" retail traders can be even more profitable.

So most retail online platforms make it very easy to take on risk.

There's a reason 100x leverage non-exchange Forex trading is illegal in the U.S. I believe. (It's legal in most of Europe.)

 

[sweter]

(the second European batch will be made in April and delivered in May at the earliest)

Now that Tesla is gonna be using Ro/Ro's and booked ICO to handle 3k cars per week, do you think the pattern of European deliveries might change (as "promised" some time ago)? Starting in Jan they're just gonna dedicate a % of weekly production for EU versions of cars and ship them out weekly and we won't see end of quarter spikes in charts anymore?

 

[Hogfighter]

She has told me to get it several times. Only recently has she turned against it.
She is the boss in the family.
I refer to her as "She who must be obeyed"(Rumpole of the Bailey)
I learned a long time ago to agree with everything she says, no matter what.
It's not a 50/50 marriage. Not even a 90/10.

Which is the reason you’re still married.

 

[Carl Raymond]

OT
Differences are good. That's what makes us unique. If we were all the same, life would be pretty boring.
In Canada, all major financial institutions use M for thousand and MM for million. We can thank the Romans for that.

Plenty of room for differences in the arts and non technical realms. For technical discussions with an international audience, standards are essential.

 

[EVNow]

It's often a slippery slope that isn't a single major financial decision, but a small bet gone well, then a doubled position size gone really wrong.

Yes, depends on the person, for sure.

But I should ask this of other investors here. Do you guys take spousal permission on every option/stock trade you do ? Or do you have some kind of standing agreement ?

ps : The former would make it tough to execute - after all several times I can't even agree with myself !

 

[Unpilot]

Yes, depends on the person, for sure.

But I should ask this of other investors here. Do you guys take spousal permission on every option/stock trade you do ? Or do you have some kind of standing agreement ?

ps : The former would make it tough to execute - after all several times I can't even agree with myself !

Well I am not married but I talked my domestic partner into buying Tesla stock. She has become almost as evangelical as me when it comes to Tesla.

 

[pz1975]

Canada is not a good data point when Tesla is pushing deliveries into the US to make the tax credit deadline.

Yes I agree with this - just thought I would share the data point. If anything, one could have expected deliveries to be even lower in Canada this quarter (not that one site represents the whole country).

 

[wipster]

She has told me to get it several times. Only recently has she turned against it.
She is the boss in the family.
I refer to her as "She who must be obeyed"(Rumpole of the Bailey)
I learned a long time ago to agree with everything she says, no matter what.
It's not a 50/50 marriage. Not even a 90/10.

Can you take her for a test drive (and let her drive)? Plus mention the $3,750 and the safety stuff? Plus print out a bunch of positive articles, tweets, etc., and casually lay them around for her to read, all with the idea of making the purchase her idea?

 

[Fact Checking]

Now that Tesla is gonna be using Ro/Ro's and booked ICO to handle 3k cars per week, do you think the pattern of European deliveries might change (as "promised" some time ago)? Starting in Jan they're just gonna dedicate a % of weekly production for EU versions of cars and ship them out weekly and we won't see end of quarter spikes in charts anymore?

That's still about 4-6 weeks worth of cars in the delivery pipeline: at 3k/week that's 12k-18k Model 3's stored somewhere on the Atlantic: up to a billion dollars of inventory.

This gets worse later on: with 1 million cars per year that's ~6 billion dollars tied up.

So I don't see them doing this in the near future (i.e. I don't think they'll fully execute their smoothing promise and that's fine), the natural solution will be the European Gigafactory: which won't be just about reducing tariffs or reducing shipping costs, but in large part will be about reducing the very high capital requirements of shipping high value cars all around the globe. With Tesla's build-to-order model there's also much lower delivery latency, which increases demand and consumer satisfaction.

This is the main reason ICE carmakers are spreading out their factories as well. Those who don't, such as BMW, perform similar inventory management gymnastics across quarters.

 

[dc_h]

Regarding #ExplaintheVins from TeslaCharts. I've been racking my brains what the hoopla is all about and why they think this is the chart to end all charts. So from my own understanding, this is the basic premise:

Tesla is overstating their Q3 sales because the number sold is far less than the Vins registered as shown in some public database (NVMTIS).

They contend that the funds from the fraudulent sales likely come from their ABL, reporting the accessed credit line as sales. They cite an example where a Ford dealer withheld reporting of sales to Ford while already receiving the cash from Ford credit. Funds were withheld for an average of 55 days in that example. So a form of check kiting. In this case it's called a floor financing model.

So essentially it furthers the TSLAQ premise that the entire company is a massive pyramid scheme. They will keep on inflating these sales figures quarter after quarter using this method until there is no more source of funds to access.

The problem with this is that this would involve a massive conspiracy on a lot of Tesla employees. For example:

1. Accounting staff will have to falsely book two sides of the entry, one side to draw on the credit line not for its suited purpose. The other side to book sales and not questioning where the funds came from.
2. Delivery and Logistics - all the false sales would need to be moved in some location. Because these cars will not get delivered , it would assume these employees are in on the scheme and just turn a blind eye on sitting inventories.

Now if you are a family business like a dealership, this is probably not impossible to coordinate but eventually the whole scheme crumbles as with all pyramid scheme like this.

Am I missing something else? Is this really how the TSLA shorts think to come up with such a convoluted fantasy just to satisfy their premise?

Occam’s razor be damned for these shorts. Fake buyers, everyone here is fake, I’m not real either and those cars I see on the street aren’t real. Inventory and product in transit is real, but it’s just moved around the country from unsold locations over and over. The conspiracy is so absurd, but somehow the only way to hang on to their fraudster meme. I hope the paid haters paymasters are revealed and losers like fed zeppelin sue the bejesus out of their deep pockets.

 

[Reciprocity]

Hyundai / Kia action on EVs has been very curious. They made fairly decent EVs, priced well - but they invariably sell very few. At one time I was looking at getting a Soul EV, but backed out because the lease price was so high.

The lease price was so high because the dealer had only a handful of cars available and could wait for someone to offer more.

In this case, I think it is a compelling EV that will probably make Bolt uncompetitive, if they can sell atleast 3k+ per month (in US).

The answer is simple. They can't make them at a profit so they are cutting their teeth on the Kona and ionic, which are exceptional first attempts. Very efficient, economical cars. The problem.. No gigafactory. Tesla can only make the model 3 because of the gigafactory. Hyundai needs a source for cheap batteries and packs. Tesla made their own. Also Tesla is going top down in terms of price/margin so they can make money as they go, Hyundai is cheap brand tough I find their vehicles to be a decent value and Kona/ionic for their wheel house. I believe they are serious, because this cars are very efficient and you wouldn't bother if you didn't carr, see etron, EQC, Jag for examples of not giving two craps if anyone wants to but the vehicle.

Hyundai needs $100/KWh battery supply, so 2020 for Tesla or 2022 for everyone else.

 

[ZeApelido]

Getting this email today

The $7,500 tax credit expires on December 31. Let your friends and family know and give them 6 months of free unlimited Supercharging. If they order now we’ll make sure the car gets delivered before the end of the year.

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Best Regards,
Troy Jones | General Manager, United States
3500 Deer Creek Rd. Palo Alto CA 94304
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