TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

Regarding #ExplaintheVins from TeslaCharts. I've been racking my brains what the hoopla is all about and why they think this is the chart to end all charts. So from my own understanding, this is the basic premise:

Tesla is overstating their Q3 sales because the number sold is far less than the Vins registered as shown in some public database (NVMTIS).

They contend that the funds from the fraudulent sales likely come from their ABL, reporting the accessed credit line as sales. They cite an example where a Ford dealer withheld reporting of sales to Ford while already receiving the cash from Ford credit. Funds were withheld for an average of 55 days in that example. So a form of check kiting. In this case it's called a floor financing model.

So essentially it furthers the TSLAQ premise that the entire company is a massive pyramid scheme. They will keep on inflating these sales figures quarter after quarter using this method until there is no more source of funds to access.

The problem with this is that this would involve a massive conspiracy on a lot of Tesla employees. For example:

1. Accounting staff will have to falsely book two sides of the entry, one side to draw on the credit line not for its suited purpose. The other side to book sales and not questioning where the funds came from.
2. Delivery and Logistics - all the false sales would need to be moved in some location. Because these cars will not get delivered , it would assume these employees are in on the scheme and just turn a blind eye on sitting inventories.

Now if you are a family business like a dealership, this is probably not impossible to coordinate but eventually the whole scheme crumbles as with all pyramid scheme like this.

Am I missing something else? Is this really how the TSLA shorts think to come up with such a convoluted fantasy just to satisfy their premise?

You end up at their conclusion, but I think their premise is that the number (estimated to be) sold is *more* than the number (estimated to be) in the database.

Of course, one of those estimates is from a blog and the other is from the shorts, themselves, and both numbers are increasing at the same rate, just offset from each other by a constant ~1.5 months, but we didn’t really expect their argument to make sense, did we?

 

[HG Wells]

OT sorta.

Bits of information.
This week I finally (for a few days unfortunately) talked the wife into getting a model 3.
I was a day one, sixth in line minimalist. IE Wanted a SR with only option being color.

Now that it looks like SR without PUP will be June, Im looking at more upscale versions.

Last minute vehicle availability has been weird.
On monday was told that two black model 3 Lemurs were available at local location. Almost sold some stock thinking NO DEMAND, sell SOME stock, buy car.
Tuesday they were gone, but if I wanted to fly (800 miles) there was a LR RWD that had 150 miles, perfect color and it was built before silver went to 2K. Lots of demand, buy more March options.
Friday was told I could place an order for what I want and it would be delivered before year end. MR blue or silver. BUY BOTH CALLS AND PUTS.

Now I have three problems.
1. Since wife has changed mind again. Do I risk divorce and buy.
2. Do I order now, or wait till the 31st and ask for 2 K off ? 5-10% chance.
3. Buy stock, buy calls or buy puts.

 

[SebastianR]

Electrek seems to have extra information there:

That sounds like (bear interpretation) they have extra cars they want to sell and are declaring them as "original owner can´t take delivery before EOY" to make it look better.

Tesla is releasing its fleet vehicles for sale to help deliveries before tax credit phase-out

Nothing is ever as good as we Tesla Bulls believe it. Nothing is ever as bad, as the Tesla Bears portray it.

I really don't like this Electrek post: it insinuates other things than the Tweet says: Point is, if you ordered a car but can't take it this year (e.g. you are on holidays), then someone else might get it. That's all there is.

I have not seen anything about Loaners, etc. But it is Tesla practice to sell everything but the kitchen sink at year end - so I totally get it, if folks end up with Loaners, cars with better wheels etc. Heck, I could even imagine someone wanting a black car and getting a blue one without the extra cost... (I definitely would try this strategy if I was in the states and a last minute buyer).

But I fail to see any big issue here: All I see is a company that is trying to move all kind of inventory. We know Tesla does this. We know that bears make all kinds of fuss about these sales gimmicks. And I'm surprised that unlimited supercharging didn't make a come back (yet?)...

 

[Cattledog]

Now I have three problems.
1. Since wife has changed mind again. Do I risk divorce and buy.
2. Do I order now, or wait till the 31st and ask for 2 K off ? 5-10% chance.
3. Buy stock, buy calls or buy puts.

#1

 

[pz1975]

Dropped my Model S off at the Vancouver service centre today. I picked up my Model 3 near the height of the craziness end the end of last quarter. I asked the service person about deliveries this quarter compared to last and she said they are about 20% less this quarter. This is just an anecdotal data point and likely doesn’t mean much but I figured I would share.

 

[winfield100]

Here we go, the Megapack is indeed Mega!

(...) Tesla is listing the project as having a total capacity of 1,200 MWh, which would mean that each Megapack has a capacity of 2,673 kWh. (...) The total capacity of those 449 Megapacks represents more energy capacity than Tesla Energy deployed throughout its first 3 years of operation – all Powerpacks and Powerwalls combined. (...)

Tesla’s new Megapack to debut at giant energy storage project in California

... I cannot wait for the moment Wall Street finally wakes up and considered TE as a part of Tesla they need to add to their assessment....

1,200 megawatts is .....1.2 gigawatts.
Where’s my “mr fusion” and who is emmit brown.....?

 

[dmunjal]

Dropped my Model S off at the Vancouver service centre today. I picked up my Model 3 near the height of the craziness end the end of last quarter. I asked the service person about deliveries this quarter compared to last and she said they are about 20% less this quarter. This is just an anecdotal data point and likely doesn’t mean much but I figured I would share.

Canada is not a good data point when Tesla is pushing deliveries into the US to make the tax credit deadline.

 

[Hogfighter]

Dropped my Model S off at the Vancouver service centre today. I picked up my Model 3 near the height of the craziness end the end of last quarter. I asked the service person about deliveries this quarter compared to last and she said they are about 20% less this quarter. This is just an anecdotal data point and likely doesn’t mean much but I figured I would share.

I imagine that they are concentrating on US sales. After Jan 1 I bet most production goes outside the US for quite a while.

edit: dmunjal beat me to it, AND he joined TMC a month earlier than me! Dang it....

 

[mongo]

1,200 megawatts is .....1.2 gigawatts.
Where’s my “mr fusion” and who is emmit brown.....?

Great Scott! Giggawatts is not the same as giggawatt hours. Power vs energy .
(Hense the activation via a near instantaneous lightning strike)

 

[Fact Checking]

The problem with this is that this would involve a massive conspiracy on a lot of Tesla employees. For example:

The other, more fundamental problem is that the NVMTIS database does not require all VINs to be registered with them: they are scraping the data from state databases and their FAQ explains that there are various reporting holes.

The goal of the NVMTIS database is to have all VINs that must be registered with DMVs before a sale with a correct title, such as salvaged vehicles or crashed vehicles auctioned off by insurers. It's a fraud prevention database where a VIN must only show up only when the vehicle is sold.

Importantly, I haven't found any evidence that Model 3 owners must get their title registered immediately (except in a few states), if they bought the car for cash and own it, and if they don't intend to sell it in the near future.

This would create significant under-reporting of titles in the NVMTIS registry - or a simple lag of a few weeks or months.

The $TSLAQ cult of course has only one explanation for the reporting gap: a hundred thousand counts of felony fraud with thousands of years of prison time attached, committed by hundreds (perhaps thousands) of Tesla employees who could work at literally any other car company, if they only wanted to.

Riiiiight.

 

[anthonyj]

Electrek is worse than CNBC. Can't pay me to read Fred's take

 

[EVNow]

Now I have three problems.
1. Since wife has changed mind again. Do I risk divorce and buy.
2. Do I order now, or wait till the 31st and ask for 2 K off ? 5-10% chance.
3. Buy stock, buy calls or buy puts.

How much money do you think you'll make on 3 ? More than 3.75k or less ?

 

[Intl Professor]

One side effect: I spend way too much time in the investors section here. I hardly spent any time in other sections. Today is different, market closed and I'm loosing my time in the others sections... I need to block TMC soon...

Don't do it until after you've exhausted relevant M3 threads. We got our 3 Sept. 23, have few miles on it, and many questions. What about chains, we may have to drive in snow this Christmas? What contributes to drain of miles when parked? Use of summon which we tried for the first time yesterday. With only control and reverse, I expected little. But putting the car back in revealed a surprise. The wheels turned to center it in the space between wall and other car.

Congrats. You'll never regret the purchase. (We got exactly same config, except for wheels. Also, not important to me, but even I am getting to notice how well it is styled.)

 

[KarenRei]

Why a person would think that hiding a major financial decision from their spouse is okay is beyond me.

 

[Fact Checking]

Since wife has changed mind again. Do I risk divorce and buy.

No car is worth a marriage!

OTOH a Tesla is more than a car, just like a Gulfstream G5 is more than an airplane:

Seriously, if she is receptive to safety arguments, show her this recent accident:

Another amazing story that Tesla makes the one of the safest family cars. : teslamotors
​

The 100+ mph side collision speed is very likely true and not exaggerated, an eyewitness was overtaken by the street racing Mustang who ran the red light, and the witness was traveling at 70 mph and saw the collision - the brake lights of the Mustang never came on, it was a collision without any last second braking. (!)

The reason the Tesla doesn't look pancaked or wasn't torn into pieces and burnt black like ICE cars T-boned at 100 mph+ is that Teslas are incredibly stiff beyond the crumple zone and there's no big ICE engine in the front. The 1+ ton heavy battery pack at the bottom of the car is like an armor plate on a tank, giving it incredible structural integrity.

So even during very high speed collisions the passenger compartment of Teslas can stay mostly intact. She was sitting on the collision side and the Mustang hit straight the driver's door AFAICS. I'm pretty confident she would not have survived in any other comparable ICE car.

 

[EVNow]

Why a person would think that hiding a major financial decision from their spouse is okay is beyond me.

My wife is highly risk averse. So we decided I don't tell her what I invest in - just how much money I make/lose every quarter.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

My wife is highly risk averse. So we decided I don't tell her what I invest in - just how much money I make/lose every quarter.

Wow.... you run a hedge fund with your wife as your main client..... that's ballsy.

 

[KarenRei]

My wife is highly risk averse. So we decided I don't tell her what I invest in - just how much money I make/lose every quarter.

Does that agreement cover car purchases?
Car purchases that she has explicitly opposed?

Don't be stupid - talk to her.

 

[anthonyj]

Any update on this? Sounds like a short seller is going to jail

 

[EVNow]

Does that agreement cover car purchases?
Car purchases that she has explicitly opposed?

Don't be stupid - talk to her.

Car purchases ?! I was only talking about investing.

BTW, She has reluctantly supported all my EV purchases over the years. Infact, she always used even the 74 mile Leaf, when I wasn't driving it.