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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 30, 2017.

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  1. gene

    gene Supporting Member

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    I’ll be helping out deliveries at Santa Barbara the 30th and 31st.
     
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  2. Carl Raymond

    Carl Raymond Active Member

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    #69122 Carl Raymond, Dec 19, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2018
    You wrote Tesla will do well, not TSLA will do well. It is possible for the markets to slow down TSLA. For as long as Tesla remain production constrained, markets cannot slow Tesla. Eventually the wider economy comes to grips with the new reality (the end of fossils) and recovers, taking TSLA to where it belongs, king of the hill.

    That said, I see no reason to forecast or fear recession. In the absence of a bubble, the only thing to fear is fear itself.

    Edit: indeed, a weak wider economy can advantage Tesla. Suppliers are keen and will negotiate. Labour is readily available without exorbitant rates. Factories may be sitting there, ripe for taking. What we are looking at is a transition economy. Weak if looking at the old, strong if looking at the new.
     
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  3. brian45011

    brian45011 Active Member

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  4. tivoboy

    tivoboy Active Member

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    Book em. Buy back later.
     
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  5. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    #69125 Fact Checking, Dec 19, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2018
    As a European who preferred hatchbacks in the past, the main source of dislike for sedans is:
    • Trunk space on small sedans is really small,
    • the trunk on sedans is often isolated from passenger space, so it cannot be extended for larger items by folding the back seats,
    • the trunk lid is often just a fold-up manual lid to a hard(er) to access 'hole' you have to put stuff 'into' (like the frunk), which is inconvenient for many types of cargo.
    The Model 3 not only has a frunk as well which offers the smell isolation feature of classic sedan trunk space, but also its trunk has none of the above disadvantages of sedans:
    • Trunk volume is generous, comparable to hatchback trunk volume, or smaller station wagon trunk volume,
    • rear seats can be folded flat, which extends trunk volume if necessary. You can even transport bycicles.
    • the Model 3 trunk lid opens almost like a hatchback lid, allowing easy access to trunk space, very similar to a hatchback.
    So I believe about 80% of hatchback users in Europe will find the Model 3's trunk space more than enough. Preference for hatchbacks and station wagons is mostly about extensibility of cargo space.

    There's still <20% of customers who will indeed prefer a station wagon or a larger hatchback for more complex uses: transporting dogs, larger cargo for business purposes, the totally flatbed access or preferring the aesthetics. I believe the taller Model Y is going to convert most of those customers as well, and SUVs have additional advantages as well.

    But for most European hatchback or station wagon users Model 3 cargo space usability and dimensions is going to be a pleasant surprise.
     
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  6. wipster

    wipster Gold Member

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    Yet it didn't make the Car & Driver 10 best list for 2018 because the Performance version didn't cost $35k. Who cares that it outperformed all vehicles that did and also outsold all of them in the 3rd quarter?

    Guess we know what industry owns that rag. Also know they ain't getting any more of my money...
     
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  7. StealthP3D

    StealthP3D Well-Known Member

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    Funny. That's only because all Tesla offerings to date have been larger than the Model 3. The Model 3 is the absolute largest car many Europeans would even consider (and still too large for those who regularly visit very tight cities).

    The Model 3 will be a runaway success in most of Europe.
     
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  8. Carl Raymond

    Carl Raymond Active Member

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    One more for your list of reasons the Model 3 will do well in Europe...

    Europeans are more likely to have a clear understanding of climate change, and more likely to be part of a regime that incents decarbonisation. (No offence to readers of this thread, which is by and large well informed ).
     
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  9. hacer

    hacer Active Member

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    And the federal reserve member banks that enjoy the privilege of borrowing at that -1% rate get free money which angers those who aren't eligible to borrow at negative rates.
     
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  10. Artful Dodger

    Artful Dodger "Ducimus, lit"

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    Hi,

    It can't be Ellison, he owns ~$2B in TSLA. Settlement calls for two "Independant" Directors, so can't be a significant owner. :(

    BTW, he was my pick for Chairman but sounds like Elon want to phase out the role in 3 years. Maybe Robin will become COO if she likes being full-time at Tesla. :)

    Cheers!
     
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  11. ggr

    ggr Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!

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    Sorry, incorrect. To be independent, the director can't have direct contractual or family relationships with the corporation or its officers. Investment doesn't count. Ellison would, IMHO, be eligible. (I don't care, don't want him.)
     
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  12. Brando

    Brando Active Member

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    So happy to see WIRED support those Diesel making/cheating German firm and NOT that BS California Firm that refuses to offer clean diesels. </sarcasm>:confused: what gives??
     
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  13. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

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    I don't either but this is a slam dunk.

    Data point. I am trading in my LR RWD Model 3 for AWD. Finished the trade-in process a week or so ago and got an email that asked which day from 12/23-12/31 could I not pick up the new Model 3. It said deliveries would be happening 6AM-Midnight those days. Paid the remaining balance today and now await my delivery timeslot.

    We're getting to 100%, and I think it's going to be 100% of a big number.
     
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  14. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    #69134 Fact Checking, Dec 19, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2018
    I expect the Model 3 to be a run away success in Europe for the following reasons:
    • The median wages are lower than in the U.S., with average new car prices about 10% lower.
    • Most Tesla Model S models in Germany cost +20%-40% compared to U.S. prices - AutoPilot is 40% more expensive. Part of it is the 19% VAT, but also logistics costs.
    • I.e. the relative price levels are 30-50% higher than in the U.S., which reduces the effective Model S addressable market dramatically - it's about half of that as in the U.S.
    • The Model 3 changes all that:
      • LR AWD starts at around €58k, versus €108k for a 100D with similar range.
      • Performance Model 3 at €68k versus €145k for a P100D.
      • BMW is in trouble: the highest performance BMW M2, which is a smaller 2-door coupé, costs €74k+ in comparable configuration, the M3 and M4 cost €70-80k in Germany - and none comes close to the acceleration and handling of the PM3.
      • The Model 3 also offers features unmatched by any BMW:
        • Remote start/heating is illegal in most of Europe for ICE cars
        • AutoPilot is unmatched,
        • Interior is generous even for tall people and there's no drive shaft running in the middle like on AWD ICE cars,
        • Remote cooling is unmatched and will be a hit as non-garage street parking is a lot more common in Europe, so hot cars in the summer are a real problem in all but Scandinavian countries.
        • Frunk space.
        • Frameless doors look "luxury American car" and are impressive AF. Only the highest end European sedans are frameless, and it's a rarity in general.
        • Tesla back seats are foldable flat, offering camping sleeping space with air conditioning and dehumidification. "Camper Mode" under a Glass Roof is something most Europeans don't even know exists, but will value a lot, because the denser urban environments are more removed from nature than the more generous living spaces in most of the U.S.
      • There's a few luxury and convenience features BMW offers that the Model 3 doesn't (such as surround camera view or high end luxury interior trims) - but none is major.
      • I.e. the Model 3 expands the addressable market much more in Europe than it did in the U.S., even at the current $66k+ entry price for the LR AWD.
    I expect European Model 3 sales to be crazy strong in 2019-2020. Tesla won't be able to make enough of them.
     
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  15. Artful Dodger

    Artful Dodger "Ducimus, lit"

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    #69135 Artful Dodger, Dec 19, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2018
    Yeah, thought I'd get pushback on this, but here's the NYSE and NASDAQ position:

    NYSE: "no director qualifies as 'independent' unless the board of directors affirmatively determines that the director has 'no material relationship' with the listed company, either directly or as a partner, shareholder or officer of an organization that has a relationship with the company."[4]

    Nasdaq's rules say that an independent director must not be an officer or employee of the company or its subsidiaries or any other individual having a relationship that, in the opinion of the company's board of directors, would interfere with the exercise of independent judgment in carrying out the responsibilities of a director.[4]

    Cheers!

    EDIT: the Reference cited above ends in a stale link, so here's the "Wayback Machine" copy:

    Just What is an Independent Director Anyway? | The Conference Board Governance Center Blog

    EDIT2: Found a source document from NASDAQ: "Market Rule 4200(a)(15)"
     
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  16. oneday

    oneday Active Member

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    If you read the NYSE one again. It says , "shareholder or officer of an organization that has a relationship with the company." So for example: a major shareholder or officer of Panasonic would not be considered "Independent."
     
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  17. 1101011

    1101011 Proud TSLA/SCTY shareholder since 2013.

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    Beat me to it. I agree with this reading of the NYSE one.
     
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  18. Artful Dodger

    Artful Dodger "Ducimus, lit"

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    #69138 Artful Dodger, Dec 19, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2018
    Thanks for that. I've found a reference to a NASDAQ source document:

    (NASDAQ Market Rule 4200(a)(15) – Definition of “Independent Director”: (PDF - 15.6 kb)

    http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/irol/87/87823/corpgov/nasdaq_marketplace_rule_4200.pdf
     
  19. UnknownSoldier

    UnknownSoldier Unknown Member

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    Out of curiosity, how much was the depreciation on the RWD after what I presume was only a few months of ownership?
     
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  20. M3Rider

    M3Rider Supporting Member

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    #69140 M3Rider, Dec 19, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2018
    Are you betting we're going another 10% down? Otherwise, why buy later?
    With everybody saying resession is scheduled for 2020, what reasons do you have to believe that the slide will continue prior to 2020?
    Also, with those analysts claiming that you might miss 5-10% growth in 2019 if you quit the market early, seems to be a a ridiculous argument if we're poised to keep losing 10% per week.

    If you're giving an advice to sell, it'd be appropriate to rationalize it somehow, otherwise it is reading as a BS.
     
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