TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[EVNow]

Didn't Japan have negative rates?

They paid banks to take cash? LOL

Well, not sure whether you were joking - I guess how it works is just keeping cash in the bank reduces the balance with time. So, instead of getting any interest you have to pay Banks to keep your cash.

 

[Causalien]

Trump, politically deadlocked into winning the trade war.

Fed, mathematically deadlocked into rising interest rate. I am staeting to agree with the orange one that the fed cannot "feel" the market. Heck at least stop the QT.

Both deadlocked into doing something damaging. Like Warren Buffet's institutional imperative. Recession guaranteed.

 

[ZachF]

Didn't Japan have negative rates?

They paid banks to take cash? LOL

Japan has had zero interest rates and QE for a while.

Sweden has negative interest rates though.

 

[neroden]

Japan has had zero interest rates and QE for a while.

Sweden has negative interest rates though.

Yeah, -0.50%. Not quite low enough for the organizations receiving this rate to go to the trouble of removing all their money in banknotes and putting into a vault. (It's a "repo" rate so it's being used by big banks for overnight liquidity.) It's basically paying banks to borrow money from the central bank, so it should be thought of as a subsidy to the banking sector.

 

[avoigt]

Total EU+EFTA vehicle sales in 2017 was 18.1M
Total US vehicle sales in 2017 was 17.25M + 2.04M from Canada= 19.29M

Europeans who don't own a car and use public transportation exclusively are largely irrelevant to car sales. A handful may be convinced to buy a car now and again but not many.

Lets not compare or confuse population and markets share for sedans. There is no EV with the specs and price available like the 3 and the demand will be given the preference from Europeans for mid size sedans higher than in the US regardless of the overall sales # of ICEs.

 

[FS_FRA]

OT

Well, not sure whether you were joking - I guess how it works is just keeping cash in the bank reduces the balance with time. So, instead of getting any interest you have to pay Banks to keep your cash.

Exactly. Not uncommon here in Germany. Several banks are charging interest for large cash balances (say >€500K). And Germany’s sovereign debt offerings have been in negative interest territory several times since 2008 - safe haven status for bonds: rather lose 0.25% as “cost” with Germany than face default risk elsewhere....

 

[RobStark]

Lets not compare or confuse population and markets share for sedans. There is no EV with the specs and price available like the 3 and the demand will be given the preference from Europeans for mid size sedans higher than in the US regardless of the overall sales # of ICEs.

I was responding to assertion that Europe has greater population than US therefore demand should be higher.

Give numbers where European demand for midsize sedans are greater than North America.

Europeans keep telling me they prefer hatchbacks/shooting brakes/station wagons and don't like sedans very much.

 

[RobStark]

Japan has had zero interest rates and QE for a while.

Sweden has negative interest rates though.

Japan surprises with negative rate

 

[Ulmo]

Also note another, important effect:

• Most ICE makers stopped FUD-ing EVs in general, because they now (have to) sell EVs. This is helping the dominant market player - Tesla - disproportionately. It's a lot harder to attack Tesla alone, without attacking their own offerings.
• In fact ICE makers recently started advertising their (often vaporware) EVs - at least in Europe. This too is helping the dominant market player - Tesla - disproportionately.
• This will also neuter some of the media FUD: a car magazine will think twice pooh-pooh-ing EVs in the same breath they are displaying VW I.D. or BMW iN ads.

I believe this will have a non-linear effect on EV and Tesla demand - and also on $TSLA stock.

The only big question at this point is the exact timing of these developments, IMHO.

Yes, as predicted.

 

[wipster]

You can go negative.

Wouldn't be prudent at this juncture...

 

[avoigt]

I was responding to assertion that Europe has greater population than US therefore demand should be higher.

Give numbers where European demand for midsize sedans are greater than North America.

Europeans keep telling me they prefer hatchbacks/shooting brakes/station wagons and don't like sedans very much.

Sales Numbers prove that sedans are way more popular in Europe versus the US but thats only one factor of many why the 3 will sell very well in Europe.

 

[EVMeister]

I've said this before. I don't really think the form factor (sedan vs. hatchback) is so important. Especially when it comes to a car like the Model 3. At least for me and people I know, the car purchase decision is decided by many things. But hatchback vs. sedan isn't one of them, it just depends on the model itself and its other features.

I own a hatchback, would happily swap it for a sedan... If that sedan is a Model 3.

 

[avoigt]

" Tesla has been trying to reduce delivery time for quite some time and just in time for its end of the year delivery rush, the automaker is introducing a new 5-minute buying and delivery process. (...)

A source familiar with Tesla’s sales in the US told Electrek that the company was still about 81% to its delivery goal for the quarter in the US as of yesterday."

Tesla has been trying to reduce delivery time for quite some time and just in time for its end of the year delivery rush, the automaker is introducing a new 5-minute buying and delivery process.

 

[humbaba]

I've said this before. I don't really think the form factor (Sedan vs. Hatchback) is so important to many people. Especially when it comes to a car like the Model 3. At least for me and people I know, the car purchase decision is decided by many things. But hatchback vs. sedan isn't one of them.

Agreed. If there were a Tesla hatchback then I would have considered getting it versus the M3 sedan. But all I was going to get was a Tesla.

Different buyers have different priorities. Seizing on one discriminating factor (hatchback vs sedan) doesn't invalidate the others, such as realistic EV, safety, charging network and autopilot.

At any rate, there is untapped demand in Europe and there's no way Tesla's production levels are going to satisfy it. Maybe once there's a GF in Europe it would make sense to express concern about over producing for a market, but right now there's no issue selling.

 

[gringotuanis]

OT


Yep.

One party (the Republicans) seems to be economically brain-dead, repeatedly calling for contractionary fiscal policy during recessions and expansionary fiscal policy during booms. That makes things worse.

And then there's the problem of the highly unrepresentative Senate, which means that small states with very unusual economies, like Wyoming (coal), Vermont (organic farming and tourism), Alaska (oil), North Dakota (oil), and Delaware (tax evasion and corporate fraud), etc. wield outsized power.

With great difficulty I resisted buying short term calls today before the Fed statement. Of course the Leaps and March calls I bought when SP was 353 are down.

Not sure where the market and thus TSLA goes from here. We may have some more downside left because of Fed statement. This week can get ugly.

I hold similar calls, I think we go up from here. The fed statement just wasn't that bad. Really quite in line with expectations. If they'd slowed rate hikes even more than the (2) next year the street talk would be on how the economy is slowing too fast and we are going into a recession. All of this fear is way overblown. Long term time to buy calls everyone or stock. It's like a fire sale. Do it smart, but again i think we bounce overall from here.

 

[RobStark]

Sales Numbers prove that sedans are way more popular in Europe versus the US but thats only one factor of many why the 3 will sell very well in Europe.

What sales numbers?

I know Model 3 will sell well in Europe the question is will it sell better than North America.

 

[Unpilot]

Wouldn't be prudent at this juncture...

I see what you did there.

 

[printf42]

I've said this before. I don't really think the form factor (sedan vs. hatchback) is so important. Especially when it comes to a car like the Model 3. At least for me and people I know, the car purchase decision is decided by many things. But hatchback vs. sedan isn't one of them, it just depends on the model itself and its other features.

I own a hatchback, would happily swap it for a sedan... If that sedan is a Model 3.

In the US the comparison is between a normal sized car which seats 5 and oversized SUV that takes entire soccer team if you squeeze a bit.

The point is in US model 3 is in disadvantage when most Americans prefer full sized SUVs, so in Europe where people does not have that bias, Model 3 should be able to capture larger percentage of new passengers vehicle market.

 

[ReflexFunds]

A source familiar with Tesla’s sales in the US told Electrek that the company was still about 81% to its delivery goal for the quarter in the US as of yesterday.

So 14% days left in the quarter to deliver 19% of their delivery target. Delivery is normally weighted to the final weeks, so their target seems achievable if it is just a case of production & delivery. If they have already delivered the US backlog, then it may be difficult to find enough new sales to hit their target. Their model 3 target must have been to at least match Q3, so they should have delivered a minimum 45.4k already. I think target more likely would have been around 60k (so 48.6k delivered already).
If Tesla think sales are going to come up a bit short, I think we'll see a model 3 lease offer in the coming days to fully clear the US inventory before year end.

 

[EVMeister]

In the US the comparison is between a normal sized car which seats 5 and oversized SUV that takes entire soccer team if you squeeze a bit.

The point is in US model 3 is in disadvantage when most Americans prefer full sized SUVs, so in Europe where people does not have that bias, Model 3 should be able to capture larger percentage of new passengers vehicle market.

True. I mean, here in the UK a Model S is considered a large car. The Model 3 seems a nice size for the UK, whilst remaining a step up in size (and luxury etc.) compared to hatchback alternatives. Like the Renault ZOE currently in my avatar.