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I just want to congratulate everyone that panic is over. There is no more uncertainty on what Fed will do during next year. Trade war is getting resolver. Nobody really cares about Brexit anymore. When Nasdaq was breaking below 7000 I felt there is no more downside than 5% and here we are at about 5% below. After Fed hike today market dropped, but then traded flat.
Also I can't see much more downside in TSLA. Deliveries of Model 3 are going well these days as I heard, unfortunately I live on the other side of the pond so I can't check it out by myself.
Maybe I am really stupid, but now I really don't see any more downside in the market and Tesla is at the bottom, maybe could touch also 320 to have this nice saying 320 before 420.
Also I can't see much more downside in TSLA. Deliveries of Model 3 are going well these days as I heard, unfortunately I live on the other side of the pond so I can't check it out by myself.
Maybe I am really stupid, but now I really don't see any more downside in the market and Tesla is at the bottom, maybe could touch also 320 to have this nice saying 320 before 420.
So they're at 81% when we're about 86% through Q4. Definitely possible to complete, but going to be cutting it close. I don't like the end of quarter pushes that Tesla always does.
"Delivery goal" is ambiguous, but can assume the guidance given in Q3 report. One of our resident number wizards want to see what we're looking at in terms of revenue, profits, etc. if we assume we stay 5% off til the end?
anthonyj
Stonks
Those end of quarter pushes are epic. I’ll take a vid next week of the NJ showroom
Driver Dave
Member
Sometimes I wonder if this is because small cars have been so just dull, and Tesla Model 3 changes that equation.
It should. Europe has a much better charging network established. Really helps that Model 3 going to EU will take CCS. EU is dying to have a long range efficient EV that isn't oversized. So far EU's choices are either to go with oversized quality expensive EV's like Model S/X, or econobox which there are aplenty...or more luxurious feels in I-PACE but they have to sacrifice range/efficiency and tech.
Model 3 right now is the most efficient EV on the market today, goes the longest distance, plus it's a beautiful spacious car with the best of the latest tech available. It is also smaller than the oversized alternatives. It is THE EV choice right now. While the lack of hatchback is a legit complaint for some. But I think many will let that one go once they get to experience the Model 3. Especially now that Tesla has come out with a nice roof rack.
With the Model 3, people don't have to sacrifice much in the EU (except for the hatchback).
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Those are not sales numbers. I went and got them
US 2017 Total 1,591,138 mainstream midsize sedan sales + 221,310 luxury midsize sedan sales = 1,812.448
Europe Total 543k mainstream sedan sales + 694k luxury midsize sedans =1.237M
Automotive Sales Data by Segment
European sales 2017 Midsized car segment - carsalesbase.com
European car sales data by segment - Left-Lane.com
So the direct competitor market is bigger in Europe while the adjacent market is bigger in the USA.
Another factor to consider is the notion of a bigger and heavier SUV will be safer.
Which might hold true if it’s in a head on collision with a tiny hatchback, but not always.
Model 3’s safety rating might have helped to eliminate the myth a little bit, but not entirely.
I disagree. The form factor of cars the 3 will replace in Europe that do not even exist in the US will add to the sales numbers.
Your comparison is "apples to oranges". The 3 does not cover only what in the US is considered a sedan but more. There are many forms here that are not even available in the US and people here will happily exchange it against a 3.
Look at my last post on the top cars sold in European and what cars are #1 in each country. Most of this cars the owner will happily exchange against a 3 if the price fits and once they have experienced it.
Take the same statistic and look at the most popular car in each state in the US and compare this to the European states.
The form factor of the 3 will be in Europe by a large margin more popular and if Tesla manages supply way better sold than in the US.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
The US has a much better Supercharger Network because it isn't being forced to install CCS plugs and offer access on a non discriminatory basis.
Hyundai Ioniq BEV is the most efficient EV and is a hatchback.
A lot of people prefer cars built by a company from their country.
Tesla is American and not German, French or Italian.
Tesla sales numbers in above very large European markets are horrible.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I disagree.
Americans will just as easily switch from compact and midsize crossovers to Model 3 as the popular vehicles in Europe.
I haven't seen anything about Tesla opening their Superchargers in Europe to other manufacturers. Only that they were adding a CCS cable for the Model 3.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
IMHO FED made the right decision to raise interest rates today. Cheap money is dangerous as more people tend to use leverage the lower the rate. Todays' short term pain will bode well for longer term gains on surer footing. That's really what it's all about, isn't it?
I have never been more pro TSLA than now. Looking forward to the New Year and Q4 financials. What is the possibility of Tesla posting enough profit in Q4 to turn their full Fiscal '18 into a positive year? Calling all financial analysts.
I have never been more pro TSLA than now. Looking forward to the New Year and Q4 financials. What is the possibility of Tesla posting enough profit in Q4 to turn their full Fiscal '18 into a positive year? Calling all financial analysts.
The sales numbers show the S/X because that is all Tesla has sold in Europe so far. The S/X are not built for the Euro market. They are huge cars. The model 3 closer to the size of cars commonly sold in Europe. It will sell much better just because the size, but also the price is much lower as well. I have confidence they will sell 3000 a month from now on.
I'm more bearish, unfortunately, and I ask others here to challenge my presumptions.
I think there's more downside to be had both within Tesla and the broader markets (the former not based on any fault of its own). The Fed is still creating uncertainty by raising rates while talking about economic “softening” (these two things are typically diametrically opposed, are they not?); the trade war is still very much unresolved; and Brexit is absolutely still an issue that is clouding the horizon.
As I’ve considered the potential impact of Q4 earnings further, as well, I think the surprise factor of a solid EPS beat will definitely not be as striking as it was in Q3 and will not result in as much of a SP increase as it did in Q3, especially considering the macro environment in which we now find ourselves. I hope I’m wrong, but I think we may find TSLA trading in the mid-$300s post Q4 ER even on a solid beat. I also think that if investors catch so much as a whiff of Tesla having difficulty sustaining deliveries, the stock will trade downward.
I'm adding some in the IRA in Jan regardless. If it's high I'll likely do half TSLA, half index and if TSLA is low at the time I might be 'forced' to put the whole 2019 contribution into TSLA.
This not-an-advice is worth every penny you paid for it.
anthonyj
Stonks
I’m still under the assumption that people are using TSLA as a swing play. Ping ponging $250-370 like AMD did $10-15 for a long time. But as this is happening, I think we are gaining more long term holders. I don’t have much faith in the stock (short to medium term) anymore... so I guess that’s a buy signal
I'm just going to throw this out there - and feel free to call it stupid - but I think a "Festive" Tesla metallic-coated gift card at say $5,000 increments ($5,000 silver, $10,000 gold, and $20,000 platinum) would make an excellent stocking stuffer. It would certainly add cash flow to the December quarter.
Ioniq is only slightly more efficient than the Model 3 in real world testing by Bjorn, but the Model 3 goes over twice its distance. These cars are not comparable. Yes some would chose Ioniq for its hatchback and efficiency, but many would go for the Model 3 for pretty much everything else. In fact most people praise the efficiency of the Model 3 for it being a larger and heavier car with its larger battery unit.
Yes Tesla is American, and it's wonderful that foreign folks actually want to buy an American made car for a change. I think you'll be surprised by sales numbers in EU by end of next year. We will wait and see.
Model S & X are too big and too expensive for many in EU. Model 3 should prove to fit in where people stretch a bit to buy up like they have been doing here in the U.S.
Not sure where you get your information from.
Tesla Market share is constantly growing YoY in Europe despite high prices for the S and X. See below. Is it that growth in the luxury segment what you call horrible?
Once the 3 arrives we will see an exponential growth of Tesla's in Europe. People here are pretty angry against the ICE manufacturers and CO2 restrictions and Diesel bans in cities add to this. Also climate change is a big topic here and people are more and more willing to adopt BEVs. Not to mention the driving experience of a Tesla and the 3.
As stated before in other posts there is no car be it the Ioniq or anyone else that plays in the league of the 3 in Europe. If VW or BMW brings a real 3 competition to market and people consider it on the same level then they may decide for their favorite e.g. German brand but thats not likely to happen just looking at safety, AP, charging network and other.
Tesla’s Model S outsold Germany’s flagship sedans in Europe in 2017
Tesla’s Model S outsold Germany’s flagship sedans in Europe in 2017
Tesla European sales figures
Tesla
All Models
Market
Share
2017 27.986 0,18%
2016 15.451 0,00%
2015 15.231 0,11%
2014 8.868 0,07%
2013 3.928 0,03%
2012 215 0,00%
2018 numbers are in the car sales report and continue that picture.
Have a look at the top BEVs sold in Germany below and show me one that will compete against the 3.
Fully Electric Car Sales Up 56% In Germany — #CleanTechnica Electric Car Sales Report | CleanTechnica
American cars may not have been very popular before in Europe but now everybody talks Tesla here.
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