dc_h
Active Member
Yes and the story shorts are excited about. I’m a bit flummoxed myself. I’ve got mental ping pong, trying to take in bullish and bearish thoughts.
Interest seems high in China and Europe, but do they just have high interest and early orders, or is demand deep enough to fill the order queue through mid year. Tesla does have more overtime burst and then slow down flexibility then the unionized producers. Could they be producing much higher then Troy predicts and getting ready to ship 3000 a week to China and 3000 a week to Europe, or is China weaker than expected? Have US/China relations poisoned the well so bad to hurt Tesla sales? Could this just be typical bear attack on low volume day pushing out weak long’s and levered long’s? Is this the perfect time to jump in, or wait until New Year’s Eve, which will be another low volume day, easily manipulated and buy some weekly calls next Monday around 9:30 in the mmd?
Tesla and TSLA is a tale of two cities, always the best of times and the worst of times. Depending on where you stand and where you look, it’s the best or worst and the cup it overfloweth or it’s about to shatter on the floor, cause Elon’s been drinking the sacramental.
Also thinking if they go hard core on production of model 3 now, some staff can possibly move to Lathrop later this year for Semi production, I say optimistically.
Anyhow, sorry for anyone leveraged. We were all fairly giddy at 360-370 and should be more so at 320 while the stock is on sale, but we are also subject to perceptions and macros and macro is either a glass half empty, cracked or possibly falling to the floor and impending doom. The fear of a trade war, early impact of the trade skirmish, modest fed rate hikes and effective reduction of money supply be QE2 liquidity reduction (seldom referenced but possibly the silent killer) are all shadows on the wall with everyone waiting for clarity.
All I know for sure is I was a fool for buying a couple of calls for next Friday last week. Go deep time or very short time and have a plan. I’ve been acquiring stock only most of the year and avoiding options. Glad I sold FB and AAPL and wish I had money to buy more stock here. Options are subject to all the above and it’s beyond me who’s going to win the next few points of this ping pong match, even though I believe TSLA will win big in the long run.
Long term thoughts:
Model 3 at 5000 a week is profitable and getting more profitable every day.
Tesla Energy is finally ramping and will be delivering over a billion a quarter soon, if not Q1.
The Semi should start to see some limited production and Lathrop seems like the only production option. Is radio silence a good thing, I think so, as they are still doing demos to customers as if their getting ready to deliver.
Model S/X are due for a battery refresh. Going to a 3 based battery pack will improve margins and performance and sales.
USA price reductions of 2% for SX and 1000 for the 3 are enough to keep sales going in the USA while they catch up overseas.
The Model Y unveil. May be deferred until later in the year, closer to production and will have a higher deposit. Probably 2500, but production will start more quickly. Possibly on the 3 line. With GF2, they can lower Model 3 production in Fremont and focus on more Y in 2020.
The Roadster is also coming up soon. Huge margins and can be assembled in a tent. I’d guess material science heavy developments as well.
The black swan in the room is macroeconomics and politics. Odds of a Putin strike in Ukraine while Mattis and Kelly are out and trump is acting defense secretary, chief of staff and Twitter and chief trade negotiator is high. N Korea could do a nuke test, or some other provocation the week before a Ukraine invasion and Turkey takes out the Kurds. It’s almost like there is a starting gun ready to go off. Dang, even my long term view is conflicted!
