TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[anthonyj]

What makes you think they need to discount cars to keep production at maximum rates? No evidence suggests such.

Well, they have tons of cars available now, which means supply > demand. Doubt sales will pick up when the rebate goes away... but then again it might if they start leasing them

 

[KarenRei]

Well, they have tons of cars available now, which means supply > demand. Doubt sales will pick up when the rebate goes away... but then again it might if they start leasing them

Better to overbuild now. Not just to maxout the rebate via high availability, but because soon they're going to be pouring their production onto ships (to China, Europe, etc) that will take a long time to convert into sales (transport / customs delays). Extra US / Canadian inventory will steadily convert to sales in the meantime.

 

[JRP3]

Well, they have tons of cars available now, which means supply > demand.

They do? I'm not finding any inventory Model 3 cars on the Tesla website.

 

[pz1975]

Well, they have tons of cars available now, which means supply > demand. Doubt sales will pick up when the rebate goes away... but then again it might if they start leasing them

They may have some cars (not "tons") available right now, but this is for US customers only who will take delivery before the end of the year. If you include true worldwide demand, then clearly demand>supply.

 

[Cattledog]

Well, they have tons of cars available now, which means supply > demand. Doubt sales will pick up when the rebate goes away... but then again it might if they start leasing them

I don't resemble that remark.

Maybe they have logistical issues, I don't know. I know I put in to upgrade our RWD M3 to an AWD M3 months ago, agreed to a trade in four in two weeks ago, got the value of that two weeks ago, sent in my balance in cash a week ago and when I called today they were looking for a way to get me a car. So I am putting thousands of miles a day on our current Model 3 to justify the low trade-in offer we accepted!

 

[Off Shore]

They may have some cars (not "tons") available right now, but this is for US customers only who will take delivery before the end of the year. If you include true worldwide demand, then clearly demand>supply.

To be fair, two cars = tons.

 

[anthonyj]

Tesla raised the price of Model 3 a few times already... they have the room to reduce in order to keep demand high(er)... listen if they don’t reduce the price between Jan 1st and Jan 18th I will literally eat my hat on video and post it on YouTube.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

“
That article is such blatant propaganda for the regressive types. Congress didn't pass a law to give a credit to Tesla. That borders on an outright lie. The odd part are the conservative Tesla owners who pretend that this attitude isn't real. I'm glad you guys are on team Tesla, but let's not pretend that a majority of conservatives are anti anything green/EV related


condescending liberal thinking you are morally superior, but you don’t live by the ramifications
Of your own ideology

Hey, I suggest we spend some time discussing Albanian and Moldavian political scene(s), because I'm about as interested in them as in US politics!

 

[EnzoXYZ]

First, Tesla is not a religion, it's a cult. Then, the fact that they can rightfully claim that they don't pay for advertising is in itself a priceless marketing asset. Even when at some point in time production may outpace demand, going mainstream does not mean going mainstream media for ads. Sure, "Emissions Test Mode" aka fart app is fun. But moreover, it's awesome PR at a one-off fixed cost. I can't wait to see my 9-yr old's reaction and am quite sure that he will forever associate a Tesla with fun. Tesla nailed it with viral marketing and not doing traditional ads is key to the success.

Awesome to see someone that GETS IT!
I don’t remember a time seeing someone making a video of a A8/7 series/S class video passenger reactions to brutal acceleration. Nope never remember those. Yet I seen a ton of these with Tesla Ps with millions of views. Totally agree that Tesla will be doing non-traditional marketing. Well it is already.

Anyone that’s talking about demand is moving the goal post or spreading FUD or redirecting their losing argument/debate.

 

[winfield100]

So the Max Pain site shows $335 but that is for next Friday the 4th. For some reason they don’t show anything for this Friday the 28th.

You are correct and I am wrong
No matter what I try using iPhone I only get 1/4/2019

 

[Buddyroe]

Anyone that’s talking about demand is moving the goal post or spreading FUD or redirecting their losing argument/debate.

Come on man. Don't you know demand for Tesla cars dried up over 5 years ago?

 

[EVNow]

You are correct and I am wrong
No matter what I try using iPhone I only get 1/4/2019

Opricot shows Maxpain as 320 for this week and 335 for the next.

Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

 

[EVNow]

Well, they have tons of cars available now, which means supply > demand. Doubt sales will pick up when the rebate goes away... but then again it might if they start leasing them

Well, the rate may drop - but then again, cars are going to Europe and US sales can be lower. Then they'll pickup - people tend to start focusing on the 3,750 credit that may run out, rather than the 7,500 that is no longer available.

Its like how for legacy cars, December has a lot of sales - but come Jan and Feb, the sales don't evaporate.

And then, there is the 35k base model that will become available at some point.

 

[nQva]

Well, they have tons of cars available now, which means supply > demand. Doubt sales will pick up when the rebate goes away... but then again it might if they start leasing them

How do you know this? Based on what fact?

 

[brian45011]

The 2017 10-K lists it as:

"Marketing, Promotional and Advertising Costs

Marketing, promotional and advertising costs are expensed as incurred and are included as an element of selling, general and administrative expense in the consolidated statement of operations. We incurred marketing, promotional and advertising costs of $66.5 million, $48.0 million and $58.3 million in the years ended December 31, 2017, 2016 and 2015, respectively."​

With about 100k deliveries that's about $665 per unit. I am assuming that the bulk of this cost is the referral program.

Tesla is opaque about the details of expense allocations within SG&A. Referrals may be a significant component of marketing, promotional and advertising costs, but there are also on-going legacy expenses for the Ss and Xs that have life-time free Supercharging; not-inexpensive promotional events like large investor presentations, product reveals, factory tours, test drive week-ends at local resort venues, etc; since discontinued Solarcity promotional costs including door-to-door solicitors and marketing activities at Home Depot and Lowes; and the office, information technology and facilities-related expenses to support marketing, promotional and advertising.

If referrals are indeed the bulk of marketing, promotional and advertising costs, the next 10k should be interesting. This tracker, Top Tesla referrers from the Tesla referral program , shows referrals at 9,425 in December 2017 and 43,234 thus far in December 2018.

 

[anthonyj]

How do you know this? Based on what fact?

I can walk into Tesla tomorrow morning and buy a Model 3. Couldn’t do that last quarter, they were all accounted for. Not saying they aren’t going to sell them all. All I’m saying is Model 3 demand will not increase if they are more costly. That doesn’t even make sense

 

[JRP3]

Not saying they aren’t going to sell them all. All I’m saying is Model 3 demand will not increase if they are more costly.

You're only looking at part of the equation. As more cars are on the road more people will become aware of them. You seem to be assuming everyone already knows about the Model 3 and it's driving dynamics.

 

[EVNow]

OT :

TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome) is a real thing. As soon as I see "Nazi" or "Hitler" in a person's post, I immediately view them as out of touch with reality, and put them about in the same category as a flat-Earther.

Trump is a buffoon. That's obvious. People losing touch with reality and losing their *sugar* over it are worse than Trump.

Yes, TDS is real - but it is not what you think it means. When people oppose whatever Trump does - even things they supported until Trump came along, that is TDS. Kinds of things I'm talking about are opposing talks with N Korea or pulling out of Syria (though not everyone supported this before '16). BTW, we all saw Obama Derangement Syndrome for 8 years. Nothing new here.

While I wouldn't call him Hitler - he definitely has authoritarian attitude - and only reason he can't get away with it is because the institutions have repelled his attempts. Ofcourse he is a racist, son of a KKK member, called Nazis "nice people" etc. So he is not just a "buffoon" - because buffoons can't do much harm. He has immense potential to do harm - and he has done quite a bit already. No need to minimize that.

 

[EVNow]

I can walk into Tesla tomorrow morning and buy a Model 3. Couldn’t do that last quarter, they were all accounted for. Not saying they aren’t going to sell them all. All I’m saying is Model 3 demand will not increase if they are more costly. That doesn’t even make sense

But, can you actually ? Have you called ?

Its possible Tesla has a distribution issue. They may have a few more cars in some places and few less in others. I've not called to check whether they actually have any cars around, but one of my friends is going to try to get one tomorrow. So, we'll see.

 

[RobStark]

Elon has said something to the effect that he believes advertising is fundamentally dishonest.

Tesla has commercials/advertising on their Youtube channel.

They just don't pay media content providers to run those commercials during their programming.