TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[EVNow]

Tesla will subsidize the $3,750 tax credit for the next 6 months, I’m sure of it. Production ramping up means they have more than enough margin to pull it off. At the very least all vehicles will get $2k reduction in price in January

Expect Dem House to restore EV tax credit soonish. Potentially even back dated.

 

[dmunjal]

Expect Dem house to restore EV tax credit soonish.

Will never pass the Senate.

 

[lklundin]

Tesla will subsidize the $3,750 tax credit for the next 6 months, I’m sure of it. Production ramping up means they have more than enough margin to pull it off. At the very least all vehicles will get $2k reduction in price in January

My guess is that as many Teslas as possible will go to China while the tariffs are low, and then as many as possible to Europe, especially the countries there with subsidies about to expire.

 

[SOULPEDL]

With that said, go back and think through everything that was said after the market tanked on Monday and determine if anything that refuted those positions changed between Monday and today, because if it doesn't explain both the drop and the surge, then it's not really the reason. I would assert that nothing happened between Monday morning and Wednesday afternoon that explains both the big drop and the big rally. Not in the tariff negotiations, not in the economy, not in the government shutdown, not in the level of political uncertainty, not in the POTUS. Nothing.

As much as I'd like to be wrong, I get more and more cynical in my old age. Anybody that has a theory that explains both sides of this week, please educate me.

I'm cautious as well, people wanting to believe it's over on anything positive is causing buys IMO, but nothing really changed. Trump still willing to hold out for the wall, so I don't think this is over and minor shutdown could turn major.

We have never seen an era where the dictator has no power. He will simply freak out and do crazy stuff. Best case is the Gov't is frozen and spins. Worse is war. Anything in between will cause pull on markets and TSLA clearly follows X2 up and down. Some may want to sell shares bought this AM then buy again in a few days. I'm just hanging as usual. Any good news from Elon could launch the stock again.

 

[Chickenlittle]

That doesn't make any sense.

Sure it does as margins improve they can. Of course at that point just a price cut but good publicity

 

[EVNow]

I think, again, for what it's worth, that the market grabs onto a piece of news and decides they can use that news to create a market manipulation.

For that to work all the market makers (hundreds of them) have to be in a conspiracy - and communicate constantly on what exactly to do. That is impossible to pull off. More likely they are all working on self interest - but with new tools at disposal like high frequency trading and bots.

Bots & HFTs of various big players that make up for bulk of trading do similar things that has amplified volatility. The bots start selling more and more if the direction is down - and the other way round.

 

[JRP3]

Sure it does as margins improve they can. Of course at that point just a price cut but good publicity

It's an unneeded demand driver just when Tesla starts shipping to the rest of the world.

 

[winfield100]

Think someone posted earlier today that max pain on Friday is $345. At the time I’d bet no one thought we could get there. Today changed my mind. Might be worth a swing trade.

No, it was $335 but another web site said $325, but cannot get to website as it’s acting “funky”

 

[EVNow]

Will never pass the Senate.

Why not ? There are a lot of senators from states where the companies will want the tax credit - like NV & TN. This is the reason it has not got killed all these years.

My hope is instead of blindly extending the credit - they should make it a common pool of 2 Million vehicles instead of 200k pools for each OEM. That was a dumb thing to start with - which only helped late comers (Toyota, Honda, FiatChrysler, Merc) and punished early risk takers (GM, Tesla and Nissan).

 

[dmunjal]

Why not ? There are a lot of senators from states where the companies will want the tax credit - like NV & TN. This is the reason it has not got killed all these years.

It was never killed because Obama was President. I doubt Trump would sign an extension either.

We might see a new EV tax credit for US companies only. Good for Tesla but bad for EVs in general.

 

[Mkorpal]

Sure it does as margins improve they can. Of course at that point just a price cut but good publicity

No, as margins improve, rapid growth returns. No need to waste profits on propping up a product that remains production constrained.

 

[EVNow]

It was never killed because Obama was President. I doubt Trump would sign an extension either.

We might see a new EV tax credit for US companies only. Good for Tesla but bad for EVs in general.

Well, do you really think if this was part of the CR/budget BHO would have vetoed ? No - it was because TN senators (a.k.a. Nissan senators) would never allow that. Same for Trump - not going to veto on that.

Its possible US will make tax credit only for EVs built in US (like China) - but that could hurt Tesla in Europe, if EU reciprocated ?

 

[KarenRei]

Ok, this probably means GF3 could be the start of ditching Panasonic.

I've always said they'll do it eventually, whenever they feel A) that they have a competitive technology, and B) that they have the cash to support the investment.

If there's anything that's characterized Tesla's strategy thusfar it's an obsession with vertical integration. Batteries are too integral of an element to leave to outsiders forever.

GF3 could finally be the start of the inhousing process (such a massive task will not be completed all at once, and they're unlikely to ditch existing cell supply lines until they're no longer useful)

 

[ggr]

It was never killed because Obama was President. I doubt Trump would sign an extension either.

No bill to extend the credit ever made it to Obama's desk, and most presidents will announce if they are going to veto a bill, and I don't recall any such announcement from the Obama administration. So can you justify that statement?

 

[dmunjal]

No bill to extend the credit ever made it to Obama's desk, and most presidents will announce if they are going to veto a bill, and I don't recall any such announcement from the Obama administration. So can you justify that statement?

I don't think Congress even entertained it because Obama was President. Did a bill killing the EV credit ever make it out of committee back then? Not sure.

 

[printf42]

For that to work all the market makers (hundreds of them) have to be in a conspiracy - and communicate constantly on what exactly to do. That is impossible to pull off.

As you pointed out, they’re more or less doing exactly that through algos, they have the same programs picking up the same signals, then amplifies it into self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

[EVNow]

I've always said they'll do it eventually, whenever they feel A) that they have a competitive technology, and B) that they have the cash to support the investment.

If there's anything that's characterized Tesla's strategy thusfar it's an obsession with vertical integration. Batteries are too integral of an element to leave to outsiders forever.

GF3 could finally be the start of the inhousing process (such a massive task will not be completed all at once, and they're unlikely to ditch existing cell supply lines until they're no longer useful)

I don't think Tesla can easily produce batteries without Panasonic (esp., IP). So most likely outcome is for Tesla at some point in the future to acquire Panasonic's battery division.

The other possibility is that the cells become pretty much easily available commodity with no real production bottleneck and Tesla can source from a number of suppliers in every continent at competitive prices.

 

[MartinAustin]

It's an unneeded demand driver just when Tesla starts shipping to the rest of the world.

Exactly. This is a USA issue... and primarily, Tesla will be shipping to Europe for Q1 and Q2.

Please don't join the throngs of bears that say the tax credit makes a difference to demand for Tesla cars. (whose factory has run at 100% capacity since 2012)

Wa-hoo! Great bounce back for TSLA today.

 

[Mkorpal]

I don't think Congress even entertained it because Obama was President. Did a bill killing the EV credit ever make it out of committee back then? Not sure.

Congress seemed pretty pre-occupied fighting the president over everything to really bother with a minor tax rebate.

 

[dc_h]

Reasons for rally

No tweets
Algos
Leveraged longs are out
Short profit taking
Window dressing sales completed
No tweets
Panic likely enough to get fed to slow down and that message has probably been shared with the big banks
No tweets
Mostly macros-Monday and today were jot down and up Tesla so much as trumps meltdown and automated trading over reaction to news.

It is interesting that computers don’t understand fear, but their coding seems to feed off of or on fear.