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EVNow
Well-Known Member
So ? You were the one talking about TDS, during market hours. Atleast I'm writing OT, after market has closed.
They've learned from past experience about cars scheduled for delivery to customer X falling through, particularly during the Christmas-New Year's Eve week when many people go away. They are aware that this year, with the tax credit being halved, Elon's tweets the past week or so can be particularly effective at pulling in people to take over customer X's order this year.
If you broaden your time range to January through September, I think you've got a reasonably decent chance of being sparred that unenviable task.
ps- you can have a shot at seeming more prescient by tightening that timeframe to July through September.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Yes, and note that Tesla has adjusted the value of referralls downwards this year - presumably to control these costs.
If these costs at least doubled in 2018 then I think my (admittedly speculative) thesis about referral costs dominating marketing costs will be largely validated: all the other kinds of advertising and marketing costs should have gone down in 2018 - there were fewer reveals and events and Tesla was cost cutting aggressively during much of the year.
I believe they didn't cost cut the referral program as aggressively as they could have, because they (IMO correctly) regard it a strategic tool of organic promotion.
Another possibility is that the costs of the referral program is in cost of revenue - but I haven't seen language supporting that interpretation.
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
- I believe that statement about Q3 is not unconditionally true, I distinctly remember a Reddit post about a new, last minute, fully specced inventory Model X being delivered late night on September 30 - in an office building that had very few lights on due to dealership laws. I.e. heroic last minute deliveries to opportunistic buyers.
- Tesla has a new inventory reduction trick in Q4: the "cancellation list". This is a list of vehicles that are returned to free inventory the moment a customer delays delivery from Q4 to Q1 either by telling Tesla or by being a no-show at the delivery date. Even if only say 5% of customers miss Q4 delivery, with 1-3 thousand deliveries a day this creates a probably significant trickle of 50-150 "newly available" vehicles, every single day - with the flow of these "new" vehicles increasing at the end of the quarter.
- There's also a slow trickle of new vehicles from Fremont: while the factory slows down at the end of quarters, it almost never fully stops. The uncertainties of production exceptions (QA problems, unexpected bursts of finished cars, etc.) will make new "unexpected' units available very close to the end of quarter as well.
- In previous quarters Tesla didn't do such aggressive inventory management: VINs were almost always assigned permanently, and if a customer delayed delivery from say end of Q2 to the beginning of Q3 then this increased the "in transit" inventory of Q2 and reduced the number of successful Q2 deliveries by 1.
We will know the "in transit" inventory levels on January 3, in less than a week, from the Q4 delivery report.
End of quarter inventory reduction is very important, as it directly improves all the key financial metrics: increases revenue, income, cash flow and working capital, reduces inventory levels.
The working capital improvement is particularly significant: finished goods are GAAP accounted at about 70% of the sale value of the car (on a cost of goods basis), so every car successfully "flushed" from inventory at the end of the quarter will improve the balance sheet with a ~140% factor.
This is one of the reasons why they are selling aggressively even from the demo and loaner fleet. (Which they'll re-stock immediately in January.)
The other reason is to help more customers take advantage of the full $7.5k tax credit.
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Anyone willing to explain how Max Pain is a sign of anything useful? I read definitions, but still no comprende.
If SP is right at Max Pain as it is now, were most people wrong about their predictions?
Please don't answer with more formulas, I'm looking for meaning and understanding as an indicator of something. At this point, I don't know if this is good news or I should be worried that the stock will be stuck at Max Pain, for example. All I know is Max Pain seems to be going up with the stock, and there must be a whole lot of hurting going on right now.
Thanks!
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Does this post help?
The short version: on weeks with significant NASDAQ options $TSLA open interest (the next such date is January 18) there's a significant force of uncoordinated options market makers managing their delta-risk inventory of $TSLA shares. This force pushes the stock price towards the equilibrium price of "max pain", where the sum of the delta risk is zero.
This inventory can easily be in the million shares magnitude (short or long), which get traded (sold/bought) on option Fridays, shortly before the "closing price" is determined, which closing price is used to settle options that are at least $0.01 in the money.
Note, based on that thesis I'm sceptical about "max pain" being a dominant force when options open interest is comparatively low - such as this week. So I don't think $320 is going to be a ceiling (or floor) during the rest of this week.
I also don't think "max pain" is an intentional mechanism applied by humans to "maximize pain" - but an emergent phenomenon of a complex market. Max pain can also be distorted by big market participants trading the underlying stock at a loss to generate much higher gains in the derivatives space. Also, max pain expectations can also distort the effect.
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Except that the state of mind and probable future actions of the Albanian president have very little expected effect on the $TSLA stock price - while Trump statements about China tariffs, steel tariffs, EV incentives or the Federal Reserve were market moving events in the past, with a particularly big effect on the $TSLA stock price.
Which is why I discussed the personality traits and possible future actions of Donald Trump - even if my politically incorrect assessment of him being a volatile personality who is easily manipulated by his environment, who suffers from excessive narcissistic traits magnified by worsening dementia creates cognitive dissonance and makes Trump supporters understandably uncomfortable.
If it's any consolation, I was discussing some of Elon's less refined personality traits in unflattering terms back in August as well.
Follow up on this from the same twitter account:
He posted a link to the official disclosure doc from the supplier:
Kelvin Yang on Twitter
http://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H2_AN201812261279726311_1.pdf
This is not a rumor at all, the *sugar* is getting real.
This doc is like the Chinese equivalent of a 8k, disclosure of big contracts that has material impact to the business.
In this case, probably not because the value of contract(43M RMB ~= 6.2M USD), it's more about getting a high profile customer and the hope for long term co-operation.
(This supplier has 2.17B RMB revenue in 2017, so this contact is really small to them, one comparable datapoint, their last contract disclosure was 914M RMB).
AFAIK, all GF1 cell production equipments were purchased and owned by Panasonic, Tesla then have some kind of rent-to-own contract with them.
Tesla has not purchased any battery production equipments itself before. So this signals Tesla will at least try to start to manufacture battery cells by themselves.
Some key points from the linked document:
- This is a disclosure of such contact has been signed, it mentioned what kind of terms were included in the contract but not disclosing those terms.
- Contract value is about 43M RMB, means the original contract is probably in USD, which is normal.
- Mentioned contract has terms about delivery method, date and place, but didn't say what they are.
- Contract is with Tesla HQ in Palo Alto, not with Tesla China, but this does not rule out the possibility they are actually for GF3.
- Content of contract are 卷绕机设备、圆柱电池组装线设备及化成分容系统。Which I have no idea what exactly they are, but from literal meanings, these words talks about Roller, Cylindrical battery assembling line, and activation/capacity measuring system.
Will be interesting to see whether these are for GF3, and if it is for a new JV with a local battery supplier, how that would play out.
My wild guess is they are experimental equipments for GF1, Tesla is trying to out innovate Panasonic, since they are growing into yet another supplier that drags back Tesla's pace of innovation.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
New "Outsider" info from our Disqus GF1 Watcher:
carsonight 4_hours_ago
The BEAT goes on!
Cheers!
carsonight 4_hours_ago
"Tesla is committed to the 2170 format and it will be used in every new product going forward. They are installing another Grohmann machine at GF1 as I write this."
The BEAT goes on!
Cheers!
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Brando
Active Member
Bosch has some fine electric drive train products:
Electric drive
These would be great to use (pull out the diesels engines, scrap) and electrify those 300,000 VW vehicle shells.
BUT that would mean 300,000 less customers for VW and a lot of labor involved for conversions, so economics aren't clear.
another idea/approach: Pull out the diesel engines. Ship to Africa (or other 3rd world countries with low labor costs) and sell them the Bosch power trains for conversions. just a dream probably just sold as scrap metal, right?
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Buckminster
Well-Known Member
OT
Troy has made some predictions"
Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) | Twitter
• Model Y production will start in Fremont in Q4 2019
Fremont - This is certainly contrarian to most beliefs but not impossible. GF1 is main contender.
Q4 - June 2020 pilot line was in the leaked document...I sure hope he is right.
• 285K Model 3s will be produced in 2019
5400 a week - wha??? He has recently stated production is at 6k.
• Model 3 SR prod will be less than 30K units in 2019
Would be good for earnings but this would be a betrayal to buyers and Elon is unlikely to allow it.
• Tesla will release a new battery pack for Model S/X that will enable Supercharger V3 and Track Mode
Late in 2019 presumably.
Troy has made some predictions"
Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) | Twitter
• Model Y production will start in Fremont in Q4 2019
Fremont - This is certainly contrarian to most beliefs but not impossible. GF1 is main contender.
Q4 - June 2020 pilot line was in the leaked document...I sure hope he is right.
• 285K Model 3s will be produced in 2019
5400 a week - wha??? He has recently stated production is at 6k.
• Model 3 SR prod will be less than 30K units in 2019
Would be good for earnings but this would be a betrayal to buyers and Elon is unlikely to allow it.
• Tesla will release a new battery pack for Model S/X that will enable Supercharger V3 and Track Mode
Late in 2019 presumably.
It boils down to warranty accounting. It costs VW less to just let those cadavers rot in the sun than to do work on them pulling out diesel systems, ship the rest over the ocean and sell those shells at three at most 4 digit $ price.
In the market that has lots of sun, but very sparse and sporadic electric grids.
Sadly, it makes no business sense.
How dare you?! The guy is a stable genius! ... I mean Elon.Except that the state of mind and probable future actions of the Albanian president have very little expected effect on the $TSLA stock price - while Trump statements about China tariffs, steel tariffs, EV incentives or the Federal Reserve were market moving events in the past, with a particularly big effect on the $TSLA stock price.
Which is why I discussed the personality traits and possible future actions of Donald Trump - even if my politically incorrect assessment of him being a volatile personality who is easily manipulated by his environment, who suffers from excessive narcissistic traits magnified by worsening dementia creates cognitive dissonance and makes Trump supporters understandably uncomfortable.
If it's any consolation, I was discussing some of Elon's less refined personality traits in unflattering terms back in August as well.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
A young man of my acquaintance in Silicon Valley did a Model 3 test drive on 12/23 and took delivery of his new mid-range on 12/24. He got what he wanted and got it fast! So yes, I'd say we're seeing faster delivery times and better logistics.
I wish there was some succinct, cool way to say this...
on volume of 11K, meaningless imo
They way that document is written, it might as well be Chinese to me.
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