TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR:
A half-dozen posts moved to Snippiness, including a couple of bathwater babies. Beating on a Moderator-flogged horse isn't productive.

 

[Tslynk67]

How many shares does Larry Ellison own of Tesla? I am really really happy with this pick.

I guess Teslas future is secured.

Three freakin’ million, maybe more...

 

[EVNow]

OT :

Anyone? Feel free to explain in detail what Ellison’s ‘deep ties’ to POTUS actually means before half our members have a heart attack over nothing. Do they share the same hairdresser? Do their maids shop at Whole Foods?

Since it was news to me had to look it up. But, as I wrote, his ties are hardly comparable to that of James Murdoch.

Larry (like Peter Theil) is one of the few Trump supporters in the valley. Not just Larry, the CEO of Oracle was on Trump's transition team.

Oracle’s Trump Ties Could Spell Trouble for Tech Rivals

Ellison hosted a fundraiser for Republicans at his house.

Larry Ellison and friends are hosting a fundraiser for Republican lawmakers

Oracle hired the highly controversial Trump intelligence staffer who leaked information to Nunes - and started contributing to Nunes reelection efforts.

BTW, Ellison didn't support Trump in the primary. He was a Rubio supporter, just as Theil supported Carly. Musk also contributed to Rubio.

 

[JRP3]

Frankly, that's certainly possible. I can easily get near this efficiency in my model 3 when I'm not hooning it or doing 85 on the highway. 200wh/mile is probably a pretty decent target average for a light and efficiency focussed EV. So, that's 5 miles/kWh or ~165 mile range.

That vehicle doesn't have the aerodynamics of the model 3. It's a stubby brick.

 

[avoigt]

Troy uses current Tesla sales in your Europe and China to estimate model 3 sales there. This is silly because those are $130k cars in that countries and that places are not the US with consumers in places like Orange county and the Bay area that pay $1M+ for a small place to live and salaries are 10x what they are for the middle class. Not to mention that she Europeans won't buy a huge car due to the small streets.

The trip from $130k down to $75k is a 10 fold increase in TAM. The fact is the equation for demand is infinitely complex but one thing matters most. Price. In a zero competition environment, Tesla will get a large market share.

I agree to your analysis. There is no correlation between the S and X demand in Europe versus the 3. Demand and even price elasticity with the 3 is very different. I did expect from people trying to predict like Troy to understand that and take it into account before making predictions that because of the method must be wrong in their result.

Lacking the method is fine but using one where its known and obvious that it creates wrong results is not good.

There are many other factors you need to consider when trying to determine the demand for Europe and separately for China. Unfortunately people are very much confused about the European market in terms of EVs.

Infineon asked Statistica a company with a solid reputation to do a survey about EV demand lately. A representative group of 1,690 people in Germany have been questioned. Representative means they represent all Germans in their mix be it demographic, buying power , region.... you name it.

Here are the today released results :

• 75% can imagine to drive and buy an EV
• 80% of the 18 - 39 year old welcome the move to EVs
• 50% between 60 - 69 welcome the development to EVs
• 74% of all with a monthly income of € 4k (net) would decide for an EV
• 62% would be willing with existing energy costs of € 4/100km to pay ,more for regenerative energy
• 15% are willing to pay more than € 6/100 km energy costs
• 60% consider regenerative energy for EVs important or very important
• Most want to charge their future EV at home
• 70% are not willing to accept longer charging times than 30 minutes

Source: Die Welt

To debunk another myth, Germany has produced in 2017 (!) 143 Twh regenerative Energy which would be sufficient for 47 m EVs. Today Germans own 46.5 m vehicles.

All what is required is a decent range, good fast charging infrastructure and affordable good and efficient EVs to attract most of the 75% Germans who want to buy an EV.

The 3 will hit right the interest and demand of the German consumer and with lower cost models delivered like the MR and later in 2019 the SR Tesla will quickly become the VW of EVs in Germany and likely in Europe. Every 3 they bring to Europe will be sold.

Looking at the wide acceptance of EVs in Germany and I believe some other markets in Europe will turn out to have similar results we can conclude that people are longing for EVs.

If Tesla is able to deliver the SR for say € 40k before incentives you gonna be surprised about what happens. With financing options like leasing even more will want to be a part of the Tesla family.

Lets also not forget that in Europe the 3 is not yet known other then from reports, videos and a very few car rentals. Most questioned may relate an EV as either to an expensive S a funny looking i3 or a not efficient short ranged Zoe. Once they see what the 3 is they will understand they do not even have to compromise.

 

[SOULPEDL]

My gramps says he would still use the Medicare transportation benefit for his rides to the ER. Said it comes with sirens and EMTs.

Make no assumptions, here's another possibility.

Your home system should deliver you to your vehicle and start the delivery. An ambulance should intersect your path and transfer if it makes sense. Waiting for an ambulance wastes precious time. Grampa won't know it's happening from the time he passes out to waking in the hospital. I will see this in my lifetime, brought to you by Tesla.

 

[SO16]

Influence of the board when you have a strong founder CEO is extremely limited - as long as the company is doing well, growing etc.

And don’t forget that Elon is the largest single shareholder... by far.

 

[Unpilot]

Nice ...um...day today isn't it?

 

[elasalle]

Frankly, after the tumultuous 3 days, today's has been so boring

Who wrote calls today assuming the SP will be near the 317.5 max pain at close ?

i like boring ..

 

[SO16]

Three freakin’ million, maybe more...

Multiply that by 11 and that’s what Elon owns.

 

[UncaNed]

i like boring ..

OT-
Oh, I bet you bought one of the flamethrowers then?

 

[avoigt]

1. 
   4m4 minutes ago
   $TSLA short interest is $8.70 billion, 27.52 mm shares shorted, 21.41% of float, borrow cost of 30 bps (G.C.) Shares shorted are up 153k, +0.56%, over the last week even though #Tesla's stock price was up 3.1%. Shorts are down $373mm in mark-to-market losses on today's +3.7% move
   
   
   
   
   0 replies4 retweets7 likes

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

 

[anthonyj]

Actually deleted my stock tracking apps this morning after the news. I’m WAY over invested atm but with Ellison on the team this is now a very long term investment. He is literally the plunge protection team for TSLA. He’s 74 with endless connections and moolah...

 

[Fact Checking]

Multiply that by 11 and that’s what Elon owns.

Note another side effect of Larry Ellison's appointment to the Tesla board: as an insider he won't be able to sell his share in Tesla without prior public disclosure and a cool-down period anymore.

I.e. 3 more million shares of $TSLA permanently removed from the float of ~128 million common shares, now effectively down to ~125 million common shares.

I.e. Larry Ellison's appointment to the Tesla board has significant anti-dilutive effects.

 

[printf42]

As an AWS fanboi, I despise Oracle and Larry's tactics to the core.

I believe Oracle as a product was responsible for many of the cost overruns IT industry has seen the last decade and has decreased productivity and agility enormously. It is a beast of a product with such an heavy footprint its like an anchor around your neck for many product teams, simply unable to get out of it. Partially because of the highly paid (undeserving) Oracle DBAs who know nothing better and learnt no new technologies in their lifetime, and so are biggest bottlenecks for any change. As a senor architect entrusted in cloud migration, I consider Oracle and Oracle SMEs as the biggest and the only significant hurdle for modernization.

And Larry has not woken up and smelled the coffee yet. Instead of embracing cloud and open source technologies and staying relevant in this changing world, he is doing the exact opposite. Trying to milk the license costs even more by doubling the Oracle license cost in AWS. Those kind of arm twisting won't work in the long term. Microsoft under Nadella has woken up and embracing cloud and open source and is reaping rewards now.

AWS has significantly expanded its offering with multiple different DB products, with the 'one tool doesn't fit all' approach. Gone are the days when a relational database satisfied all Data requirements. Their Amazon Aurora is true 100% cloud native database platform which in my opinion will deal a death blow to Oracle.

And what is Larry's response to all that? This is what I saw in Re:Invent last month. Offering free car rides on a Model 3 with this banner:

View attachment 364404 View attachment 364405

Hey people, stop bashing Larry and his business tactics here.(although I have things to say myself.)

To Tesla, he is just a old man with money and believes in Tesla's potential(and probably its mission).
It's good to have well connected strong supporter on the board.
(I read Jobs's kids refer to him as "The Rich Uncle", so who knows how much money he could bring.)

Don't over estimate his influence on Tesla's future direction and business tactics.(Or any other directors on that matter).
Elon still has biggest share and has support from most share holders on any major decisions he wants to make.

 

[Thumper]

Shhhhh

 

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR:

ALL posts concerning individual's reasons why that person doesn't like a company that is not Tesla have been Snipped. Discussions as to why a person is or is not an attribute to the Tesla Board of Directors are encouraged but ad hominem attacks are utterly out of place.

Any more such will be deleted out of hand.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So much for buying cheap 340 calls. Hopefully we swing back to 300 prior to mid-Jan.

 

[Fact Checking]

Hey people, stop bashing Larry and his business tactics here.(although I have things to say myself.)
To Tesla, he is just a old man with money and believes in Tesla's potential(and probably its mission). It's good to have well connected strong supporter on the board.

Also, I think the most important political influence Larry Ellison brings are his robust connections to conservatives and the Trump administration in particular. There have been signs of explicit anti-Tesla moves from the Trump administration in the past, and the views of U.S. mainstream conservatives about all things environmentally friendly and forward looking (dare I say 'progressive') is infamously reactionary.

I.e. Ellison is a much needed political ally to Tesla's mission as well. Since I expect U.S. conservatives to be one of the greenest parties in 10 years (once the influence of coal and oil billionaires fades in the GOP), it's perhaps the first signs of much needed reform. There's no fundamental conflict between conservatism and environmentalism: "conservation of nature" is "conservative" in the purest sense of the word.

 

[EVNow]

Anyone still think MMs will bring the SP down to 317 - down $15 from where it is now ?