TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[humbaba]

Pfft! I have ties to Mickey Mouse having been a fan of a member of the Mickey Mouse Club.

Anyone? Feel free to explain in detail what Ellison’s ‘deep ties’ to POTUS actually means before half our members have a heart attack over nothing. Do they share the same hairdresser? Do their maids shop at Whole Foods?

Importantly, Ellison is not running Tesla. Now, I dislike Ellison simply on the basis of Oracle. Oracle has terrible business practices forwards and backwards. If one believes the ends justify the means -- then Bill Gates/Microsoft has had better execution. Oracle is just slimy and Ellison has been a part of that. My visceral dislike is backed up by plenty of specifics, but as this is not an Oracle forum I'll forebear. In terms of Tesla I'd have preferred someone else. But oddly enough, no one at Tesla asked my opinion

 

[humbaba]

Macro indices are still conflicted, with big spikes up and down today - and until macro improves $TSLA is subject to that general correlation as well.

...and now that we have more time the relation is, sadly, more apparent. Still up compared to NASDAQ, but not looking good.

Volume is still high and IMO that is most likely why the price is still above NASDAQ.

 

[Drax7]

Pfft! I have ties to Mickey Mouse having been a fan of a member of the Mickey Mouse Club.

Anyone? Feel free to explain in detail what Ellison’s ‘deep ties’ to POTUS actually means before half our members have a heart attack over nothing. Do they share the same hairdresser? Do their maids shop at Whole Foods?

Mickey Mouse , how very deep are your ties with this rodent?
Is Cinderella compromised?

 

[CyVolt]

So random datapoint - one that you've heard a million times before, I'm sure. I'm in the US now, and while my test drive is tomorrow, I took a sneak peak by the Tesla store and saw a Model 3 for the first time in person. Ready for the story you've heard a million times?

Gorgeous. Way better than the pictures, and I expected a lot from the pictures. Way roomier inside than I expected, even after hearing that exact same thing said many times before. Loved the open-pore wood. Loved the handles. Loved the seats. Loved the screen. Loved everything about the bloody thing. And so can't wait to drive it tomorrow.

Tesla does amazing work. Seriously, my heartfelt thanks to everyone who worked on it. This thing is going to take over Europe the same way it did the US.

How is this a surprise story? This is the same story every Tesla fanboi tells.

 

[S3XY]

How is this a surprise story? This is the same story every Tesla fanboi tells.

After saying it's not a surprise about three times in the quote I'm surprised you think that she's surprised.

 

[scaesare]

OT

China’s Great Wall Motor unveils $8,680 all-electric ORA R1 urban car with nearly 200-mile range
Some interesting comments (in the comments section) regarding the size of US cars.

Notable from the article:

"Though Great Wall Motor is using the NEDC standard and therefore, the actual real-world range is expected to be closer to 150 miles."


"the subsidized price of the new model, ORA R1, ranges after incentives from 59,800 RMB to 77,800 RMB (USD 8,680 to USD 11,293, per the CNY/USD rate "

 

[EVNow]

Nasdaq has dived 50 points down - TSLA hasn't moved.

 

[AudubonB]

How is this a surprise story? This is the same story every Tesla fanboi tells.

MODERATOR:
This post is being kept up here as a stern warning. ANYONE who inserts a word as disparaging, demeaning, content-void and wolf-whistley as the obvious one in the above subjects its creator to instant and permanent banning.
This goes for any posts in any threads falling under my responsibility; it especially is true for posters who have zero history of productive posts.

 

[ZeApelido]

Ok Ellison, next time I see you driving in Woodside Rd in an exotic car, it better be a Roadster 2.0 prototype

 

[EVNow]

Notable from the article:

"Though Great Wall Motor is using the NEDC standard and therefore, the actual real-world range is expected to be closer to 150 miles."


"the subsidized price of the new model, ORA R1, ranges after incentives from 59,800 RMB to 77,800 RMB (USD 8,680 to USD 11,293, per the CNY/USD rate "

Still, a 150 mile EV for $20k is good. Its like the Leaf - that sells for $30k.

Not sure how good the car otherwise is, though.

 

[printf42]

That is pretty damn weak. Wow, cars that crash into trees at high speeds catch on fire. And so far all 3 passengers are still alive.

Also if anyone is curious here is what AlexS seems to be referring to:
A Tesla Model X split in two and caught on fire after hitting a tree in New Hampshire

BI said this in the article, couldn’t remember when was the last time they did:

Despite some headline-making fires, Tesla's Model X is one of the safest vehicles on the road, according to the US government and third-party testers.

Oh, they said the rear half of the car is “nearly unrecognizable”, with those f**** doors sticking up...

 

[Drax7]

So random datapoint - one that you've heard a million times before, I'm sure. I'm in the US now, and while my test drive is tomorrow, I took a sneak peak by the Tesla store and saw a Model 3 for the first time in person. Ready for the story you've heard a million times?

Gorgeous. Way better than the pictures, and I expected a lot from the pictures. Way roomier inside than I expected, even after hearing that exact same thing said many times before. Loved the open-pore wood. Loved the handles. Loved the seats. Loved the screen. Loved everything about the bloody thing. And so can't wait to drive it tomorrow.

Tesla does amazing work. Seriously, my heartfelt thanks to everyone who worked on it. This thing is going to take over Europe the same way it did the US.

Frankly I think the quality of the drive, is superior to the looks of the car.
I was more impressed with that anyways .

 

[JRP3]

Still, a 150 mile EV for $20k is good. Its like the Leaf - that sells for $30k.

I doubt it's going to get 150 miles of range from it's 33kWh pack.

 

[Rarity]

Importantly, Ellison is not running Tesla. Now, I dislike Ellison simply on the basis of Oracle. Oracle has terrible business practices forwards and backwards. If one believes the ends justify the means -- then Bill Gates/Microsoft has had better execution. Oracle is just slimy and Ellison has been a part of that. My visceral dislike is backed up by plenty of specifics, but as this is not an Oracle forum I'll forebear. In terms of Tesla I'd have preferred someone else. But oddly enough, no one at Tesla asked my opinion

Likewise, I've only encountered Oracle once in my life and don't want to repeat the experience. Once they capture you as a customer, you're their b*.

That said, Oracle's financials are enviable. 24% net margins.

 

[tivoboy]

I doubt it's going to get 150 miles of range from it's 33kWh pack.

Frankly, that's certainly possible. I can easily get near this efficiency in my model 3 when I'm not hooning it or doing 85 on the highway. 200wh/mile is probably a pretty decent target average for a light and efficiency focussed EV. So, that's 5 miles/kWh or ~165 mile range.

 

[elasalle]

2 more trading days before end of quarter. I think TSLA in nice place. cheers!!

 

[EVNow]

OT :

20% of U.S. new car customers want their next car to be an EV, according to an early 2018 survey. This percentage is probably furtger up now. The 2017 figure was 15%.

Hopefully the pollsters were better than the CR guys who after great analysis declared EVs are just 0.05% of new car sales in 2017 (actual 0.5 %, BEV).

But, the problem has been the gap between intention, which are free, and actual - which costs money. Hopefully 3 will reduce that gap.

Even so, actual sales of EVs remain relatively low. Although sales increased by almost 25 percent between 2016 and 2017, fully electric vehicles remain a paltry 0.05 percent of new car sales overall, according to manufacturer data compiled by CR.

“There’s always a gap between intentions and actual behavior, but we do see a year-over-year increase in actual purchase of EVs,” Brannon says.

 

[EVNow]

2 more trading days before end of quarter. I think TSLA in nice place. cheers!!

Frankly, after the tumultuous 3 days, today's has been so boring

Who wrote calls today assuming the SP will be near the 317.5 max pain at close ?

 

[Pezpunk]

OT :



Hopefully the pollsters were better than the CR guys who after great analysis declared EVs are just 0.05% of new car sales in 2017 (actual 0.5 %, BEV).

uhm, i'm confused on the math here. 0.05% of the roughly 6 million cars sold in the U.S. annually is 3,000 cars. pretttttty sure there are more than 3,000 EVs sold annually.

even your figure -- 0.5% -- equates to only 30,000 cars. Tesla sells more than that in a single quarter. what am i missing?

 

[SebastianR]

Don't forget build out of "Tesla Network" fleets. Once FSD is here that will keep them busy too.

I think we can confidently assume this is a few years out. However, I do think that at some point Model 3 will be available for lease. And I do think that once we have cars returning from leasing and if - which is still a little more "if" than "when" - FSD is widely available and robust enough for car sharing, the Model 3 will be a really cool carsharing car: with a 1 Million Miles drive train, all software controlled interior, the inwards facing camera all hardware already existing... But it will take a long time to unlock that value.

More so in Denmark than say Switzerland. The price of electricity is also more expensive in Europe than the USA. A look at difference is gasoline/diesel prices doesn't realize the savings it would suggest.

Also I am told that most cars in the Model 3 class are purchased/leased as company cars where prices are negotiated optimally.

All true. On electricity: more and more solar system in Germany are falling out of the subsidies (after 10 years) and thus are now producing "waste" electricity. I imagine there are a number of folks that try to do something productive with this kind of electricity. I don't however foresee this to be millions of people (more like hundreds/few thousands of people).

One data point on prices in DK:
The cheapest Model 3 is currently DKK 464.724 (AWD, LR, PUP, areo wheels, no EAP, black)
The most expensive Model 3 DKK 668.734 (Performance, AWD, LR, PUP, EAP, colors (e.g. red) everything you can chose)

The cheapest Audi A4 is currently DKK 374.990 (it is really naked, I doubt anybody orders one of those...)
The cheapest Audi A4 Quattro (since there is no RWD Model 3 in Europe yet) is: DKK 546.445 (again, this car is de-facto naked)
The most expensive Audi A4 - honestly I'm lost with all the extras Audi offers. But the most expensive "base version" is DKK 671.227 so this is by far not maxed out but more a starting price for the A4 with that particular engine.

Audi A4 Limousine – En banebrydende kombination af teknologi og æstetik. Læs alt om Audi A4 Limousine, se aktuelle priser, og book en prøvetur her. > A4 > Audi

I know that Denmark is different from other European countries. But at least here in DK, the Model 3 is extremely competitively priced. The most expensive Model 3 Performance with all options chosen is still cheaper than the naked "best of the best" A4 Sedan 45 TDI quattro with 231 horse power that makes in in 0 to 60 in 6,3 seconds...