TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[KarenRei]

So much for buying cheap 340 calls. Hopefully we swing back to 300 prior to mid-Jan.

I know the feeling. I'm still waiting for some incoming cash :Þ

Time remaining is drawing short. I'm not optimistic about seeing 300 again.

 

[EVNow]

Also, I think the most important political influence Larry Ellison brings are his robust connections to conservatives and the Trump administration in particular. There have been signs of explicit anti-Tesla moves from the Trump administration in the past, and the views of U.S. mainstream conservatives about all things environmentally friendly and forward looking (dare I say 'progressive') is infamously reactionary.

I.e. Ellison is a much needed political ally to Tesla's mission as well. Since I expect U.S. conservatives to be one of the greenest parties in 10 years (once the influence of coal and oil billionaires fades in the GOP), it's perhaps the first signs of much needed reform.

I don't understand why all this analysis is ignoring that already Tesla has a Murdoch on the board ? Is there anything more important to Trump & Republicans than Fox News ?

 

[Pezpunk]

Also, I think the most important political influence Larry Ellison brings are his robust connections to conservatives and the Trump administration in particular. There have been signs of explicit anti-Tesla moves from the Trump administration in the past, and the views of U.S. mainstream conservatives about all things environmentally friendly and forward looking (dare I say 'progressive') is infamously reactionary.

I.e. Ellison is a much needed political ally to Tesla's mission as well. Since I expect U.S. conservatives to be one of the greenest parties in 10 years (once the influence of coal and oil billionaires fades in the GOP), it's perhaps the first signs of much needed reform.

weirdly, i've seen more hostility towards Tesla/Elon from progressives lately than from conservatives (even weaved into sitcoms -- The Good Place recently took a nasty swipe at him). i find it baffling. policy-wise, though, you're right -- Republican politicians are obviously far more likely than Democrats to hurt Tesla with legislation and policy choices. (and I don't think that's a controversial or biased statement.)

 

[CyberDutchie]

Ok Ellison, next time I see you driving in Woodside Rd in an exotic car, it better be a Roadster 2.0 prototype

He was always a fan of Acura NSX. I remember the local showroom manager telling me he bought three of them, saying it’s a better deal than a Ferrari.

I saw Larry once in Menlo Park at the Chinese togo place, years ago, picking up food. I thought that’s nice, the guy is a billionaire but picks up the same cheap and oily Chow Mein that I get there.

 

[Fact Checking]

I don't understand why all this analysis is ignoring that already Tesla has a Murdoch on the board ? Is there anything more important to Trump & Republicans than Fox News ?

James Murdoch is just the liberal black sheep of the Murdoch family with very little influence over how Fox News is being run. (I also have my doubts about James Murdoch's true allegiances: this year there were a number of suspiciously well sourced leaks straight from the Tesla board in very critical moments. James Murdoch has a history of dirty tricks in UK politics.)

Larry Ellison is an actual multi-multi-billionaire, part of the real GOP power hierarchy, that is pulling the puppet strings. He also has a billion dollars invested into $TSLA, which investment I'm sure he'd like to see grow and grow.

 

[EVNow]

I know the feeling. I'm still waiting for some incoming cash :Þ

Time remaining is drawing short. I'm not optimistic about seeing 300 again.

Between the delivery report and Earnings call after Q3, SP went down to 250 - with virtually no news.

 

[EVNow]

OT :

James Murdoch is just the liberal black sheep of the Murdoch family with very little influence over how Fox News is being run. (I also have my doubts about James Murdoch's true allegiances: this year there were a number of suspiciously well sourced leaks straight from the Tesla board in very critical moments. James Murdoch has a history of dirty tricks in UK politics.)

Larry Ellison is an actual multi-multi-billionaire, part of the real GOP power hierarchy, that is pulling the puppet strings. He also has a billion dollars invested into $TSLA, which investment I'm sure he'd like to see grow and grow.

A "liberal" Murdoch still has tons more influence than a conservative silicon valley guy who opposes Trump on his immigration policies.

 

[Fact Checking]

Between the delivery report and Earnings call after Q3, SP went down to 250 - with virtually no news.

Back then Tesla was still a 'story stock' built on faith in essence.

In early January all we have to do is to plug the Q4 delivery numbers into the Q3 financial report, to get a conservative guess about how Q4 financials are going to look like. It's a question to what extent the broader market will be able to perform simple arithmetic operations - but usually they do manage.

But yes, the real deal will probably be the Q4 update letter as @KarenRei and @neroden predicted it months ago.

 

[humbaba]

I doubt it's going to get 150 miles of range from it's 33kWh pack.

That was my initial reaction as well, but put an anemic motor on it and assume it is driven at around 30mph and it becomes more plausible. With a 60 mph governor not necessarily desirable, much less competitive outside of China, but it may well reach 150 miles on a charge.

 

[tivoboy]

That vehicle doesn't have the aerodynamics of the model 3. It's a stubby brick.

Maybe it only goes 35 mph? ;-)

 

[Fact Checking]

weirdly, i've seen more hostility towards Tesla/Elon from progressives lately than from conservatives

True - hostility towards Tesla/Elon from progressives comes from five main sources I believe:

• UAW influence, underlined via the 'Reveal' reports which are usually reliable (but weren't this time), and their influence on union liberals and organized labor in general,
• the NYT editorials directed at wealthy liberals,
• NY hedge fund liberals, a lot of whom are probably still short $TSLA,
• Elon is a billionaire and over 80% of billionaires are conservatives - so per rule of thumb liberals don't trust billionaires. Elon also has weird politics which are hard to categorize into liberal/conservative stereotypes. Elon is also really good at p*ssing off every political party by being overly honest,
• and the anti-Elon and anti-Tesla FUD is pretty effective on those who are not really going into the details - the complicity of vast segments of the media (conservative and liberal alike) also doesn't help. Most news about Elon and Tesla is still reaching ordinary people through a very distorted lens.

But we should also remember that unlike conservatives, U.S. liberals and progressives don't have a unified world view and have no unified messaging platforms either (CNN and MSNBC are liberal conservatives in reality) - they are not an 'ideology', they are a complex amalgamation of aligned interest groups that rarely fully agree with each other.

So half of liberals cheering on Elon and half of them disagreeing with him is actually the regular status quo one should expect.

 

[SO16]

LOL. This author will be sorely disappointed!

Elon Musk and Tesla Will Be Radically Different After Today. Here’s Why — FORTUNE

 

[tivoboy]

I know the feeling. I'm still waiting for some incoming cash :Þ

Time remaining is drawing short. I'm not optimistic about seeing 300 again.

jezus k-rei, did you send that stuff pony express? Even back then Wells Fargo could get money from the east coast to the WEST coast in 10 days total. On a horse, with a rider, MANY horses. Many indians. Rain, Hail, Snow, Sleet. did I mention the Indians?

update: required sensitive commentary. I have NOTHING against Indians.

MOD: Hey! What do you have against snow?

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

uhm, i'm confused on the math here. 0.05% of the roughly 6 million cars sold in the U.S. annually is 3,000 cars. pretttttty sure there are more than 3,000 EVs sold annually.

even your figure -- 0.5% -- equates to only 30,000 cars. Tesla sells more than that in a single quarter. what am i missing?

2017 US sales numbers were 17.25 million. Tesla only sold 50,125 cars in the US in 2017. The "other BEV" sales totaled almost the same amount (~50k), with PHEV sales making up the difference (~100k) of InsideEv's numbers and are excluded, yielding the result of fully electric vehicle sales making up only 0.57% of 2017 US auto sales.

Although the numbers are right, the tone of the CR report and the Bannon quote are way off base. 2018 should quash their rhetoric.

 

[Fact Checking]

Although the numbers are right, the tone of the CR report and the Bannon quote are way off base. 2018 should quash their rhetoric.

Prediction: they'll simply skip that line of argument once it stops working... That leaves their old quotes dangling as if they were real.

 

[KarenRei]

jezus k-rei, did you send that stuff pony express? Even back then Wells Fargo could get money from the east coast to the WEST coast in 10 days total. On a horse, with a rider, MANY horses. Many indians. Rain, Hail, Snow, Sleet. did I mention the Indians?

update: required sensitive commentary. I have NOTHING against Indians.

After the ever-predictable failures to transfer before New Years Eve, I got a resolution after exchange hours (9-16 GMT) on the 23rd, then the exchange was shut down from the 24th to the 26th, then I was able to initiate the transfer yesterday; it hasn't posted yet. Yeah, it sucks. :Þ I guess I could have bought something with the whopping $148 in free cash in my IB account

 

[humbaba]

After the ever-predictable failures to transfer before New Years Eve, I got a resolution after exchange hours (9-16 GMT) on the 23rd, then the exchange was shut down from the 24th to the 26th, then I was able to initiate the transfer yesterday; it hasn't posted yet. Yeah, it sucks. :Þ

are you saying that money transfers are a Þ in the side of your investing activities Oooh...good'un!

(sorry, my inner language geek could not resist)

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

So much for buying cheap 340 calls. Hopefully we swing back to 300 prior to mid-Jan.

You had your chance. Several times over the last week. Why didn’t you grab it then?

 

[KarenRei]

are you saying that money transfers are a Þ in the side of your investing activities

(sorry, my inner language geek could not resist)

Hahaha, vel gert

 

[EVNow]

OT :

uhm, i'm confused on the math here. 0.05% of the roughly 6 million cars sold in the U.S. annually is 3,000 cars. pretttttty sure there are more than 3,000 EVs sold annually.

even your figure -- 0.5% -- equates to only 30,000 cars. Tesla sells more than that in a single quarter. what am i missing?

In 2017 over 17 million cars were sold. Even in the worst years around 2018, more than 8 million cars were sold.

I counted roughly 85k BEVs sold in 2017 on insideevs. Remember Tesla sold just a thousand 3s in 2017.