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Biggest thing which twirperrino doesn't understand is what Gene Munster keeps harping on in every interview
All other manufactures will eventually have the same growing pains Tesla is having right now. They will have to solve the same problems that Tesla is solving. However, when they get to the point Tesla is at right now, Tesla will be much further ahead in terms of scale and efficiency and will be able to provide a better car at a lower price on a larger scale. Impossible to compete with that, and to add insult to injury they will be Killing their ICE business. It will be a cruel death for most. I'm not even exaggerating.
All other manufactures will eventually have the same growing pains Tesla is having right now. They will have to solve the same problems that Tesla is solving. However, when they get to the point Tesla is at right now, Tesla will be much further ahead in terms of scale and efficiency and will be able to provide a better car at a lower price on a larger scale. Impossible to compete with that, and to add insult to injury they will be Killing their ICE business. It will be a cruel death for most. I'm not even exaggerating.
So Toyota and Volkswagen will have trouble getting into the automotive business?
Bet TSLA
Active Member
One sanity check I use is to take a pessimistic very low estimate and double it. The thing is that even the bulls are valuing Tesla Energy at pretty much zero. But the truth is that although they are a year behind, Tesla Energy will easily be worth as much as the vehicle business. Plus it will grow faster because it's much easier to execute on. So double, at least.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
The automotive business, as currently constituted, will not exist. Current mainstream companies will all have an exceedingly hard time getting into the new automotive business. Their existing business model fails. Their existing secret sauce is useless. Their existing partners are an anchor.
Don't get me wrong, I LOVE Tamberrino. He was my knight in shining armor in late 2016 when he downgraded TSLA from $240 to $185 and helped create a fantastic buying opportunity just before Tesla went up to $300+ for the first time. Tesla’s (TSLA) stock is down after Goldman Sachs cuts price target, sees slower Model 3 ramp up
I think his "Tesla is producing 1400 Model 3s per week" flubstimate is right up there with his huge downgrade just before the Spiegel bottom.
Esme Es Mejor
Member
You weren’t alive in Q3 2016? Weird.
I hope you’re still alive in Q3 of this year.
if you mean the automotive industry of the twenty first century, then yes.
Its been nearly 10 years since the Tesla Roadster and neither Toyota nor Volkswagen is anywhere close to production of a compelling EV. What more evidence do you need?
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It boils down to simple false view:
- ICEs are complex
- BEVs are simple
- therefore if you can build millions of ICE you will easily build millions of EV
As evidenced already by ... crickets.
- ICEs are complex
- BEVs are simple
- therefore if you can build millions of ICE you will easily build millions of EV
As evidenced already by ... crickets.
mutle
Member
If you talk to shorts for some reason Q316 doesn't count. Either they cite the "pie in the face" memo or that without ZEV credits it wouldn't have been profitable. I'm sure they'll find another way to move the goalposts when Model 3 becomes profitable.
MacRocket
Faster than Falcon 9
I would just like to add to this post after thinking about it a bit more.
I think Brokers would pass on new information/recommendations to their most valued clients first. Then they advise their smaller customers before releasing to the general public via news media etc. This may also be a contributing factor to delayed reaction to news.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Yes. It's not just the manufacturing that will be a challenge. It's the fact that if they make compelling EVs, Which Tesla is forcing them to do. It will hurt their ice business by cannibalizing their profitable models with new EVs that are not profitable. The traditional autos will admit that it takes 6 years to build a completely new model from the ground up. The dealers they rely also hate EVs because they don't require much maintenance. Unless they build them to fail like they do their ice vehicles. It's funny how they start to fall apart as soon as the warranty runs out. Charging networks are not cheap and they are required, not optional.
They also have investors who will not like the spending they are going to have to do to lose money for decade on EVs. Right about the time a recession hits. It should be fun to watch. Who survives and who does not.
Lastly, none of them have prepared for the biggest issue. Batteries. It's the most expensive part in the car, it's the only real competitive edge. Yet none of them are securing sources large enough for millions of cars a year. They are just hoping someone will do it for them on the cheap. And someone will. And they will be cheap. And they will degrade quickly, charge slowly, be heavy and bulky and they will spontaneously combust and they will have quality control issues. Atleast for a decade. Then they will be ok. But not competitive with Tesla 2030 battery packs and models.
While this is happening. Tesla will be taking market share and mind share in the top 80% of margins vehicles. Just look at the large luxury sedan market in the US for an example of the future. Tesla has nearly 40% share, more then BMW, Audi, Porsche and Daimler combined. This is the future for all models with margins over 20%. Tesla will let BMW own the mini Cooper segment.
Lastly. Those auto makers are incredible. But they have a lot to learn about advanced materials and EVs. They can't just build the same car with a battery and electric motors and hope it competes. Because it won't. Every example coming it share atleast one of the following weekend weaknesses compared to Tesla's: slower, less range, smaller, more expressive in the same class, uglier, faster battery degradation, no charging network, no dealer support.
They got issues and it will take a decade for them to solve them. By then Tesla will own the top margin segments with profitability.
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Are you terminally ill, or have suicidal tendencies ?
There's gotta be a rational explanation for your short life expectancy...
vinvin218
Member
First time Tesla Model 3 will attempt Beijing auto show April 25th $TSLA vincent on Twitter
bdy0627
Active Member
This is one of the fundamental beliefs of the Tesla bears. They have a powerful conviction that once the incumbent car companies decide to shift to BEVs, it will be easy for them to make the transition. In the process, Tesla will be wiped out. The argument was similar against Apple going into the iPhone, which obviously proved terribly incorrect for bears. With Tesla, bears are even more convinced of how this will play out because of the complexity of the car making business. Along with that, they simply believe that Tesla will be unable to make a profit selling cars, unlike the incumbents. The biggest flaw in their argument, as I see it, is Elon. He has such an incredible ability to see technology before it happens, and then envision what it will be like several decades out. The incumbent car makers do not. I think Tesla has stumbled quite a bit working up to this point, which is to be expected, but that doesn't change my belief in where they will be within a few years.
i dont there is any downgrade. Probably the usual tsla movement..Yesterday was up, now down. Shorts trying to pull the stock down. There are their last desperate moves
)But i love this situation. Yesterday i sold again some calls with good Profit. And bought the same today for much cheaper
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Tesla will be sustainably profitable starting in 3Q18, as predicted in July of 2017.
Tesla's return on invested capital is extremely high, and this fact will reflect on the bottom-line in the coming quarters.
maybe Donald Trump tweeting "Looks like OPEC is at it again. With record amounts of Oil all over the place, including the fully loaded ships at sea, Oil prices are artificially Very High! No good and will not be accepted!" 45 minutes ago.
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