Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Is anyone here all in Tesla?
I am, and gladly.
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Is anyone here all in Tesla?
Define "all in".Is anyone here all in Tesla?
That is one I had forgotten (although I am not sure that I find it dispositive).Did you drive the effin' car yet? If you did, you wouldn't need any more evidence.
That is a new one!Creating a thesis in the first place is a mistake, regardless of what side you are on. It gives the illusion of control.
TSLA is a gamble, and how you win or lose, will likely not be what you expect.
I am still looking for an intelligent argument as to how a company with $4 billion of equity which loses close to $1 billion per quarter will be around in 2 years, never mind 4.
We (or at least I) are looking for evidence or arguments against our thesis. If you only listen to people who agree with you, you don't learn anything.
Is anyone here all in Tesla?
That’s all in. I’m all in too. Good luck brotherDefine "all in".
My 3 self-directed brokerage accounts are 100% TSLA.
I agree capital raises are the only hope. So far Elon's raised $9 billion for Tesla and only lost about $5 billion of it - if he can keep doing it Tesla may survive. But I think the underwriters are getting nervous.Simple. Capital raises and eventually operating income.
For bears to succeed. You will need to prevent Tesla from being able to do capital raises within the next 2 years before they reach operating income parity. For that to happen, you will need to take out the confidence of those long term investors who has been in TSLA for 5+ years. Mainly the small # of institutional investors who hold the majority of shares, but more likely the cult followers who don't buy bear's bullshit. As the institutions are keeping an ear on the sentiment and the sentiment is driven by how many people "believe".
So far, most of the ways the bears attack TSLA cultist's confidence has been wrong as they use methods that just divides opinion and pisses off the cultists. Thus entrenching the TSLA cultist's position.
But you guys better come up with one quick as time is running out. In any event, the business case for EV has been made already and the landscape will change no matter TESLA succeed or not. TESLA shareholders PAID for all the other automobile manufacturers to prove that EV business model works. They better thank us.
We (or at least I) are looking for evidence or arguments against our thesis. If you only listen to people who agree with you, you don't learn anything.
I think you've forgotten the $25 billion of liabilities. Once we put those in, you get a share price of about $90-100, which seems more reasonable than now.Hell, I’ll give it a try. Let’s talk about valuation, and let’s talk about what companies might be willing to pay for TSLA today as we speak. In the end, the only price tag that really matters is the one that someone(s) are willing to pay.
In what I consider to be a near worst case scenario, I value Tesla to be the following:
- $20 billion for auto/semi EV tech
- $15 billion for autopilot tech
- $5 billion for all of Tesla Energy
If my maths are correct, that would yield a SP today of about $236. And again, that’s what I believe to now be esssentially a rock bottom price.
Valuating Tesla’s future is much more difficult for me as I’ve mentioned before, and let’s say much more open to creative interpretation Assuming a strong Q3&Q4, I’m still looking for a SP of about $420.
For someone that may be interested in shorting the stock at this point, the potential upside of that trade just doesn’t make sense to me.
Is anyone here all in Tesla?
Is anyone here all in Tesla?
I think you've forgotten the $25 billion of liabilities. Once we put those in, you get a share price of about $90-100, which seems more reasonable than now.
I have my entire retirement, plus $10k non-retirement account. So I'm all in.
My wife owns $0.00 TSLA by design. If it fails, she's my fallback. That would not be a pleasant experience, but at least there's something to fall back on.
I think you've forgotten the $25 billion of liabilities. Once we put those in, you get a share price of about $90-100, which seems more reasonable than now.
$23.022 billion as of 12/31/17 (likely a little larger now).Where are you seeing $25 billion??