theschnell
Member
Can I point out that it's called a "balance sheet" because the assets and liabilities balance?
Hopefully they are about as close to balancing now as they ever will be...
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Can I point out that it's called a "balance sheet" because the assets and liabilities balance?
I kind of feel bad for Ford. All that debt and no ability to react to the coming EV storm. I'll paint you picture of what will scare Ford because Ford doesn't sell many cars that compete with Tesla's today. But Elon is going to reveal a pickup and he is going to have it pulling and 80,000 lbs semi up a mountain faster then diesel semi could drive itself up the same mountain. Then the driver will get out and plug in all his gear.The best place to get these numbers is the 10-k filed with the SEC. As of 12/31/17, Ford's liabilities were about $222 billion, so more than 9 times Tesla's. However, Ford's revenues were about 12 times Tesla's. Ford had a profit of $7.6 billion (Tesla lost $2 billion) and (most crucially from a credit perspective) $18 million of working capital (Tesla is negative $1.2 billion).
Although I think Tesla will do very well in the months ahead, I'm personally worried about a declining share price later this week and next week, including for a couple of days after earnings. That's because I expect negative sentiment to continue - there is so much negative sentiment right now that the stock still isn't behaving like it did over most of the last year. As we get closer to earnings, I suspect that more people will be worried and will want to sell.
Afterwards, I expect the media will focus on the negatives in the earnings report (e.g. losses in Q1) and continue to generate negative headlines, even if production news is great.
It is also possible that 5000/week (on a sustainable basis) will be officially delayed into Q3. Unless margins at 4000/week are better than expected, obviously any delay to 5000/week can't be too far into Q3 because of Elon's tweet over cash flow/profitability, but it would still make for bad headlines.
Also, the decreased automation may negatively effect Model 3 margin projections - hopefully only in the short-medium term, and perhaps not too much if the increased 6k/week capacity of the line can make up for that to some extent, but again there may be negative headlines from this.
Finally, the coast-to-coast autonomous driving demonstration could be pushed back again - yet another opportunity for negative headlines.
I'm (mostly) all in TSLA. Occassionally trading 1/3rd of shares into something else to ride out and/or maximize gains on dips. Started in 12.2016 and from initial 197 shares I managed to trade my way up to 282 now, just by selling and buying without additional capital. Goal is 300 and then I stay 100% TSLA, hopefully before Q3.
But all in doesn't mean it's 100% of my cash/assets, roughly 50% now and declining as other income sources accumulate. So I'm not too afraid even if I lose everything it won't affect my quality of life (ok, it might mean no Model 3 for me... ).
I tried diversification with some good results (there were times where I didn't own any TSLA), but it's too stressful and demanding to keep track of everything. Plus, I feel like I have a very good idea of what's going on with Tesla (mainly thanks to this forum) and can make informed decisions and projections (even if they don't play out I can justify myself by saying I've made the best decision given the available data), while other stock is mostly WAG about the future.
I wonder how much runway shorts have left.
Right hand side of the chart below (from Bloomberg/IHS Markit) shows the huge spike in shorting over the past month.
View attachment 293930
Tesla May Be the Most Hated (and Loved) Stock in America
I posted the chart above from IHS/Markit (courtesy of Bloomberg) on April 13 showing that shorting had dramatically increased recently.
...This is a staggering increase in just a one month period. Since Model 3 production is ramping up, Elon is predicting profitability in Q3 and Q4 and TSLA shorts have a terrible track record of increasing their short positions at the worst possible times, this is starting to get VERY interesting.
The higher they rise, the harder they fall. These shorts are going to lose their shirts, pants, socks, and panties--within months.
This feels a lot to me like the spring of ‘16. X production was ramping, but no one believed them. Stock was in the crapper.
This would make a really good profile picture for you.
S ramp was the same. I'm with you here.This feels a lot to me like the spring of ‘16. X production was ramping, but no one believed them. Stock was in the crapper.
Interesting that the short interest is higher than ever.
Is that because there’s something justifying unprecedented pessimism with Tesla right now that is escaping me, or because the only way the shorts can keep the stock price so low is doubling down on their bets?
If it’s the latter, they are playing a highly toxic game, that reeks of desperation.