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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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In the interview I saw, he didn’t say anything negative [In fact, he said, “I’ve never said anything negative”] The interviewer was desperately trying to bait him into saying something negative, but he stayed neutral/positive and focused on moats & candy.

Here’s a link:
Warren Buffett: 'I salute' Elon Musk for trying to improve a product

In a way Buffet is right, Tesla will one day need to raise capital, one day in 2019.. Well, it doesn’t really matter when. The point is that they can raise anytime, shorts just can’t seem to understand Tesla’s business model like we do. I’m loving the new vin registration today, another 5,000 was just what I needed to see. This has to be demoralizing for shorts to see, week after week of VIN assault.
 
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Oh snap! Is he dropping an analogy bomb related to his statements regarding pending launch of Tesla's market cap? Those that shorted get hurt bad, those that didn't hold stock are left saddened.

Edit: Then he tweeted a link to this: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rococo
So who ever knows...

Also a character from Grimes' video "Flesh Without Blood": Grimes Explains the 4 Characters in Her "Flesh Without Blood" Video: Exclusive

And he's been tweeting Grimes lately
 
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I don't know, some people keep saying Elon totally screwed up the conference call, total disaster, I'd stay away...

You’re ridiculous. I never said he screwed up the entire conference call, I said he was wrong to behave that way, and it was cringeworthy to listen to. I stand by the facts that it was a mistake for him to act that way, once again, by his own admission. His mistake isn’t going to be enough to drag down the share price these upcoming months, and making money is what I care about. Nor is his mistake going to help the share price even more in the future.

You brought it up again not me. I’ve already provided facts for my reasoning, and you’ve provided nothing. Your and other behavior on this forum is embarrassing.
 
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Omg why are there so many god damn slides in that deck of competition. Why doesn’t he just go long other autos or short oil and gas if he thinks EV is gonna be that great (just not Tesla)
And you can’t compare income even after adjusting for R&D of a mature peak production auto with less capex and thus depreciation coming online to a growing company that isn’t producing to its capacity or mature in its capex spending.

What a loser
 
Omg why are there so many god damn slides in that deck of competition. Why doesn’t he just go long other autos or short oil and gas if he thinks EV is gonna be that great (just not Tesla)
And you can’t compare income even after adjusting for R&D of a mature peak production auto with less capex and thus depreciation coming online to a growing company that isn’t producing to its capacity or mature in its capex spending.

What a loser

On December 1, 2016 -- the date of Spiegel's earlier infamous "Tesla is a Zero" presentation A small hedge fund manager threw shade at Tesla's Elon Musk at a private conference and said the stock was going to zero -- the SP was $181.88 at the close.

So anyone dumb enough to follow his thesis at the "Spiegel bottom" and hold through today has already incurred a loss of 66.5%, plus interest, in about 18 months. I wonder if anyone in the financial press will report that statistic.

In any case, I like his odds of his "Tesla is a Zero" short thesis resulting in an greater loss over the next 18 months.
 
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You’re ridiculous. I never said he screwed up the entire conference call, I said he was wrong to behave that way, and it was cringeworthy to listen to. I stand by the facts that it was a mistake for him to act that way, once again, by his own admission. His mistake isn’t going to be enough to drag down the share price these upcoming months, and making money is what I care about. Nor is his mistake going to help the share price even more in the future.

You brought it up again not me. I’ve already provided facts for my reasoning, and you’ve provided nothing. Your and other behavior on this forum is embarrassing.

You’re taking this way too seriously....
 
I don't like for people to bet against other people's constructive efforts.

And placed a sell order on all my shares at a very high price. I understand this guarantees they will not be loaned to people who want to sell short.

Should keep them on the straight and narrow with their investment direction from here on out.
 
Omg why are there so many god damn slides in that deck of competition.

<snap>

What a loser

Yes, Agree. I wrote a pretty stong comment on SA about that being the worst presentation I ever saw, and to my big surprise SA did not delete it (yet). I guess because everybody who sees 70 slides for any presentation (specially that short timeslot) agrees, and these are even mainly booring screenshots.
IMHO that presentation just shows how obsessive Spiegel is about Tesla. I can not understand how anybody could trust a fund manager like that with his money. Actually I feel that Spiegel is so obsessed about anything Tesla / Elon that security should keep this guy far away from Elon.
 
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Here is where I see profitability coming from in Q3 and Q4. It also explains Elon's short squeeze.

Tesla knows that the end of the $7500 federal tax credit will help it sell high-spec cars. So as soon as they get up to 5k/week they will introduce AWD (possibly P) but NOT the base battery. This will drive up the ASP even higher right as demand peaks and production peaks. This combination in Q3 and Q4 will lead to profitability in those two final full credit quarters. That in combination with the typical Q4 push because the tax credit is quickly realized, Q4 should be massive. This is where the short squeeze of the century will play out.

Q1 2019 will usher in the 35k base model with $3750 credit, but will also have the SP suffer because of the loss of the credit. However, since the line should be smoothly running, Tesla should be in a position to be profitable on the base model, but not until Q1 2019. Q1 2019 might not be profitable however because most of those who want the high-spec model 3's on the list will have them.... of course word of mouth might change that, but I would expect a drop in gross margin.

Bring on the profits.
-Jim
European customers should get their Model 3 in Q1 2019, I would expect those to be high spec cars.
 
Did you guys check Bloombergs tracker lately? They seem to refuse the VIN's reported to them and still estimate the produced Model 3's lower.

Bloomberg model 3 8th May.JPG
 
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