TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Teslie]

...

If this indeed happens, then there’s a few on this board that will be able to buy a tropical island, or two...

Tropical islands are soooo dry and boring (believe me, I know)

 

[PaulusdB]

And I’m on 504 - looking to become a multi-millionaire on the back of it, in 10-15 years...

If this indeed happens, then there’s a few on this board that will be able to buy a tropical island, or two...

Expect prices of tropical islands to rise sharply at that point in time.

 

[Unpilot]

"some 100k" means "some * times 100k" which can be anything from 300k-700k depending on your definition of "some". Sorry you did not understand that

No I understood you perfectly. You were being misleading for a reason. I know what that reason is.

 

[Krugerrand]

I've been in the investment industry for 40 years, held Series 7 and 63 brokerage licenses, traded stocks, bonds and options for the same period, but I obviously don't have as much experience as you, given your comments.

I've listened to quarterly analysts calls for decades on a wide range of stocks I've owned, since way before Tesla was a glimmer in anyone's eye, and questions from the analysts can be brutal. And if the person answers by deflecting or refusing the question, they will ask it again -- analysts can be relentless until they think they've gotten a solid answer. And, it's not the least bit unusual for another analysts to go back to a previous question if they didn't fully understand the answer, That's just how it works across the board, not just for Tesla.

The nature of Elon's responses were inappropriate.

So you’re saying analysts are boring and ask dry questions or is that dry and ask boring questions? Give me a second to go back and reread the transcript.

You know there used to be a ‘the way space rockets used to always be done’ and a ‘the way selling cars used to always be done’ and a ‘the way building cars with fossil fuel engines always used to be done’ and....

Sometimes the way it’s always been done needs to change. Analysts might want to heed the hint they just got or the new way will be ‘let’s go to YouTube’.

 

[Tslynk67]

Here’s an example of how Elon is fixing the production issues. 8 minutes long. St John's Morning Show | Impressing Elon Musk

That's a great listen, thanks for sharing!

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Expect prices of tropical islands to rise sharply at that point in time.

No, I here tropical islands are the second most shorted stock next to Tesla. Prices sure to drop.

Dan

 

[bdy0627]

Looks like we are going red today even with the Nasdaq looking good. Shorts are still able to maintain some control on it with the lack of major short term positive news.

 

[Tslynk67]

Will you adopt me?
Just sayin'

Dan

With a name like "Dan", I doubt it - wrong gender for a start...

 

[sahanim]

looks like we got some big fish in the pond today.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

With a name like "Dan", I doubt it - wring gender for a start

I didn't ask you to be my sugar daddy...just adopt me! LOL!

Dan

 

[Tslynk67]

Will you adopt me?
Just sayin'

Dan

With a name like "Dan", I doubt it - wring gender for a start

I didn't ask you to be my sugar daddy...just adopt me! LOL!

Dan

I already have three kids, so no thanks, but only one wife, so some scope there...

 

[Todd Burch]

No I understood you perfectly. You were being misleading for a reason. I know what that reason is.

Agree. I've never heard of "some 100k" meaning "some multiple of 100k". Everywhere I've ever heard it used, it means "approximately 100k".

Mod: He's not a native english speaker. If the words were "some hundreds of thousands" the meaning would have been totally different. Let's go with benefit of the doubt and stop the discussion NOW. --ggr.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

With a name like "Dan", I doubt it - wring gender for a start


I already have three kids, so no thanks, but only one wife, so some scope there...

OK, then how 'bout just a little mention in your will? Nothing big mind you...just a couple hundred shares or so. That's not too much to ask is it?

Dan

 

[neroden]

Tropical islands are soooo dry and boring (believe me, I know)

Sea level rise makes them a poor investment. I'll buy upland continental property, thank you. ;-)

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Is there any way to believe this without believing the current numbers are fraudulent?

To put it very simply, we think that at the current or higher ASP, Tesla will find insufficient demand within a couple of years, and if they substantially lower the ASP they will be selling at a loss. Plus we see competition coming over the next few years to peel off some of the richer buyers (Jaguar/BMW) and the poorer (Nissan/Hyundai/Kia).

 

[Icer]

Sam from Navigant on Mr Twit #666
(I am not superstitious but a black thought just crossed my mind...)

TLDW:
elon hard to work for
you get thrown under bus

elon 22% shares, does not want dilute, for control
Personally borrowed 800 million to buy shares.
bets vw will buy brand (!)
terrible manager
Needs a timcook but will not cede control
*
Tesla VW?
Please god, no.
Why not Apple+Google?
Please?
Murrikin Teamwork Time
*
Critical bit, Into The Dark:
22% Control requirement, if correct...
really does not want an equity raise
really does not want
the stock price up to high?

Cash he doesn't have, needed
to buy the 22% to maintain control?
*
I have now become a episode of Black Mirror.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Thanks, it was nice of you to admit that shorts do try to destroy good companies.

Not sure what you mean by "good" company but shorts don't seek to attack well-run companies with good business plans. That would be a quick way to lose money. We seek out badly managed companies with weak plans and/or solvency/liquidity issues.

And most of us are not short overall. We generally have more long positions than short.

 

[Icer]

Above post, the embedded vid quite rudely ignored the
#t=1h59m21s bit I put there to bring folks conveniently to the
1 hour 59 min 21 seconds spot,
where Navigant Sam talks about the Elon.

 

[Ugliest1]

To put it very simply, we think that at the current or higher ASP, Tesla will find insufficient demand within a couple of years, and if they substantially lower the ASP they will be selling at a loss. Plus we see competition coming over the next few years to peel off some of the richer buyers (Jaguar/BMW) and the poorer (Nissan/Hyundai/Kia).

Fair enough your thoughts on insufficient demand. I'd actually agree with you, but then we'd both be wrong.

The "competition" statement, though, methinks doesn't hold as much water as you think it does. There's plenty of room for buyers in all $$ categories to choose Jaguar/BMW/Nissan/Hyundai/Kia or even Faraday Future. Those sales won't hurt Tesla because Tesla STILL won't be able to produce as fast as the demand for Teslas worldwide. Tesla isn't looking to be the single and only car company existing; there's plenty of room for many. Elon has said many times that he welcomes competition. Read @Reciprocity's many posts on the subject, they delve into all the details.

I for one can hardly wait for the competition to prove beyond Powerpoint slides that they have a good product (including a charging design and the infrastructure that allows for long distance travel).

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

we think that at the current or higher ASP, Tesla will find insufficient demand within a couple of years, and if they substantially lower the ASP they will be selling at a loss.

So you do believe they will be profitable at 5k/week in 2018, when they’ll be selling higher-end models (first production, AWD, performance).

Do you believe they’ll be profitable in 2019, when they’ll be selling higher-end models internationally?

By 2020, you think there won’t be any new demand for the higher-end models that people have seen their friends, neighbors, family, and coworkers driving?

If you really believe that, then I guess I understand your short position.