TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[TrendTrader007]

Dude, this is why you get flack from a few members. In this particular instance, it was only a few weeks ago that Elon was targeting 6000/wk burst rate in hopes of achieving sustained 5000/wk. There will be many who interpret today's comments as a downgrade. You are talking sugar.

Not a bad meeting, but short squeeze tomorrow? Not unless Elon announces the details of the China factory and it includes government funding on the same order as New York state funded Gig 2.

IMHO of course

I don’t mind the criticism. I’m merely expressing my unbridled eternal optimism regarding the future of this company and stock price
If certain persons dislike my super optimistic projections they are free to put me on their ignore list
I’m certainly not going to stop expressing exactly what’s on my mind
Also I couldn’t care less whether I’m right or wrong
I love this company and the stock and will continue to make money despite being wrong every single trading day

 

[Electroman]

What happens lets say Tesla cannot get to 5k/week end of this month, but can only get to 4.5k/week? and reach 5k/week lets say, 2nd week of July?

You think GM and Audi will get a massive lead and crush Tesla in competition?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

What happens lets say Tesla cannot get to 5k/week end of this month, but can only get to 4.5k/week? and reach 5k/week lets say, 2nd week of July?

You think GM and Audi will get a massive lead and crush Tesla in competition?

Yes

Spoiler

No

 

[AudubonB]

....Time to schedule a trip to the nearest Fidelity branch, THREE HOURS AWAY....

Me too.....by supersonic craft.

Not to pound overly on my lack of bandwidth and everything else right now, but....

In that there’s no way I’ve the ability to watch today’s meeting, I’d be extremely grateful if someone could provide a synopsis of the trenchant revelations from the AGM. Tesla’s/SpaceX’s little satellites cannot come quickly enough.

‘Preciate it, all!

 

[dc_h]

I'm pretty sure he said that he thought they could get to 5k with just the two lines, but with the third it should be easier.

Did anyone ask if they will have more than 3 lines, or just speed up the three lines.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Did anyone ask if they will have more than 3 lines, or just speed up the three lines.

No one asked.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Me too.....by supersonic craft.

Not to pound overly on my lack of bandwidth and everything else right now, but....

In that there’s no way I’ve the ability to watch today’s meeting, I’d be extremely grateful if someone could provide a synopsis of the trenchant revelations from the AGM. Tesla’s/SpaceX’s little satellites cannot come quickly enough.

‘Preciate it, all!

I was live commenting on it. Start here: General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

 

[MP3Mike]

Did anyone ask if they will have more than 3 lines, or just speed up the three lines.

I figure if he thinks that they can get lines 1&2 to 2500/week each, and line 3 is better, say 50% better, that would put them at 8,750/week. So they would either need to add one more line to get to 10,000/week, or they would need to replace one of the original lines with the new design. (Which would get you to exactly 10,000/week.)

And I think he said that it took just a couple weeks to build line 3. But do they really want to give up >5k of production to replace a line? My guess is that they will add line 4, and then come back and replace line 1, or 2, with the new version and then decommission the remaining old line. That gives them 11,250/week and extra space.

Of course that is just the general assembly portion. We don't know what might need to be done to other lines, body/paint/battery pack/motor/marriage/etc., to get up to full speed. (We just know that general assembly is the slowest portion right now; previously marriage was the bottleneck, and before that is was battery pack.)

 

[ruralectric]

This will be my last post on the matter. Nothing personal 007. But I think there is a case to be made for maintaining a certain quality of the info on the board. The reason I don't post much is because I'm not a knowledgeable investor. TSLA is the first and currently the only individual stock I own, and I'm in deep. My thesis is mostly based on Elon's track record of technical achievement and business acumen vis a vis SpaceX and Tesla. I participate mostly to learn and post when I think I can add to the discussion. But you talk TA like you really know what you're talking about. And maybe you do, but then you say stuff like "I couldn't care less if I'm right or wrong". You're messing with the signal to noise ratio of the discussion. It devalues what has been a historically high quality discussion (no thanks to me as I lurked for four years before I created an account). It would be different if we all didn't know your history based on your own posts over the last year or so.

Here's a suggestion: I bet no one here would have a problem with your posts if you include a portion of your last post in your signature. This:

I couldn’t care less whether I’m right or wrong.
I love this company and the stock and will continue to make money despite being wrong every single trading day

Regards, and best of luck with your trading.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Jesus, I'm losing a lot of money by being at a broker who isn't lending out my shares. I have *so* much going on that I didn't want to open a account at another broker but I really don't see any alternative. Time to schedule a trip to the nearest Fidelity branch, THREE HOURS AWAY....

You can do it on line, no need to travel. I don’t know the size of your account but don’t be afraid to ask for a few hundred free trades and thousands of dollars as a bonus for moving it.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I figure if he thinks that they can get lines 1&2 to 2500/week each, and line 3 is better, say 50% better, that would put them at 8,750/week. So they would either need to add one more line to get to 10,000/week, or they would need to replace one of the original lines with the new design. (Which would get you to exactly 10,000/week.)

And I think he said that it took just a couple weeks to build line 3. But do they really want to give up >5k of production to replace a line? My guess is that they will add line 4, and then come back and replace line 1, or 2, with the new version and then decommission the remaining old line. That gives them 11,250/week and extra space.

Of course that is just the general assembly portion. We don't know what might need to be done to other lines, body/paint/battery pack/motor/marriage/etc., to get up to full speed. (We just know that general assembly is the slowest portion right now; previously marriage was the bottleneck, and before that is was battery pack.)

Let's call General Assembly lines 1 & 2 v1 (and assume they're identical, or near enough so), and GA line 3 v1.5. If they add a 4th line using v1.5 or better, then hitting 10k is easy (assuming everything else similarly keeps up). But it may logistically it might be hard due to space and physical location of these lines. If they didn't plan ahead for 4 lines (which they might have) then getting the needed parts (not just bits and pieces but the powertrains and bodies in white etc) from their respective lines to the 4th GA line might impact performance of lines 1-3. However if that's not a problem, then probably adding line 4 and then replacing (and/or removing) one or both of lines 1 & 2 makes sense.

Some might argue that buying a line's worth of extra robots is wasted money but I'm sure they'll have no problem repurposing them (at least, everything up to effectors, and possibly those too) elsewhere - perhaps even before Y/Semi/Roadster lines are built, they will be building lines for 3 in China after all, never mind they might ship them to GF1 or GF2 for various uses, or use some of them to upgrade the other parts of the other (pre GA) lines. Robots are to an extent fungible.

Depending on how effective line 3 is, and whether they can shut down just a single line and upgrade it without impacting operations of the rest of Fremont, it might still make sense to replace line 1 and/or 2 without adding line 4 though - if line 3 is so much better than 3 + 1 or 2 can exceed some other bottleneck for long enough that the net result would be a wash in terms of vehicle output, which if line 3 is 50% better is believable... I imagine the perfect time to do that would be while building high margin P and AWD vehicles rather than 6 months from now, so the lowered output has less impact on the bottom line (vs lowered output and building 35k models in the mix).

TL;DR I would be neither surprised to see a line 4 or to not see line 4 but instead see line 1 or 2 upgraded to match line 3, etc - arguments could be made for both and depend on factors we don't know.

 

[JRP3]

But you talk TA like you really know what you're talking about. And maybe you do, but then you say stuff like "I couldn't care less if I'm right or wrong". You're messing with the signal to noise ratio of the discussion. It devalues what has been a historically high quality discussion

This.

 

[TSLAopt]

You can do it on line, no need to travel. I don’t know the size of your account but don’t be afraid to ask for a few hundred free trades and thousands of dollars as a bonus for moving it.

For the best possible return on whatever your investment strategy is (buy and hold, active trading, leverage, etc.) then IBKR hands down will get you that, for a multidue of reasons happy to discuss via PM if curious (or just ask friends who use IBKR on what their experience has been vs. their previous online broker) The difference will be compounded year over year so choosing wisely earlier the better.
The only drawback is no brick and mortar stores and service is not always as great, but it’s platform is built in an automated way that you shouldn’t need service hardly ever (like Tesla, the best service is not needing to be serviced)

 

[AZRI11]

Model Y will be delayed, Musk says - LA Times
Tesla production hiccups to continue until a 3rd line comes operational - NY Times
Sky rocketing battery costs adds to Tesla's woes - Business Insider
Musk uncertain if Tesla can meet its modest production goals for Q2 - WSJ
Low cost Model 3 plans abandoned - National Enquirer

And then this:

http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-feeding-live-babies-to-robots-2018-5?r=UK&IR=T

Tesla engineers feed live babies to Robots in Gigafactory

Nummi had 50% more live babies fed to v space aliens posing as UAW reps sent to negotiate factory closure,
Pravduh reports.

 

[sundaymorning]

What happens lets say Tesla cannot get to 5k/week end of this month, but can only get to 4.5k/week? and reach 5k/week lets say, 2nd week of July?

You think GM and Audi will get a massive lead and crush Tesla in competition?

It’s important to keep in mind that getting close to 5k is good enough, because somewhere in the 3rd Quarter Tesla will push for 6k, which will more than likely make up for the mere 400-500 “miss”.

 

[Tenable]

$TSLA sorry shorts Elon just sealed your fate
5000 M3 per week by end of June 2018
Short squeeze tomorrow!!!

If I had $1 for each correct prediction you've made in the last 18 months I wouldn't be able to afford a small frosty.

 

[Tenable]

Jesus, I'm losing a lot of money by being at a broker who isn't lending out my shares. I have *so* much going on that I didn't want to open a account at another broker but I really don't see any alternative. Time to schedule a trip to the nearest Fidelity branch, THREE HOURS AWAY....

You don't need to travel to a physical broker. Just call and initiate an acat with e forms. Or with some brokers, print, scan and send.

 

[sundaymorning]

For those of us who are still hung on Elon’s 6k number I advise you to reread that April email again. Elon stated that the internal goal was 6k so that Tesla can have zero margin of error to meet 5k from suppliers. If they guided for 5k, and a supplier missed, then it’s going to be under 5k. Hence, by guiding for 6k, it will leave Tesla with some wiggle room to meet the 5k number.

 

[defc0n]

Dude, this is why you get flack from a few members. In this particular instance, it was only a few weeks ago that Elon was targeting 6000/wk burst rate in hopes of achieving sustained 5000/wk. There will be many who interpret today's comments as a downgrade. You are talking sugar.

Not a bad meeting, but short squeeze tomorrow? Not unless Elon announces the details of the China factory and it includes government funding on the same order as New York state funded Gig 2.

IMHO of course

Note however the positive reaction to this nonsensical stock pumping from evidently most of the others in this forum.

 

[defc0n]

If I had $1 for each correct prediction you've made in the last 18 months I wouldn't be able to afford a small frosty.

Wendy’s did have small frostys on sale for $0.50 the other day though.