TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

I enjoyed it but I don't think there was anything mentioned that will catapult the stock. Lots of sizzle. M3 production continues to improve, positive future quarters coming soon, FSD in 6-12 months, exponential improvements coming soon to EAP, China factory coming soon, positive gross margins for TE coming soon, model Y reveal next March. It had all been mentioned before. There was interesting info on the model 3 3rd general assembly line they are installing now. That is what is giving Elon confidence in 5,000+ soon. I thought that was bordering on steak vs sizzle.

The installation has been completed, it started 2 weeks ago. This was the best part of the presentation imo. It was the one piece of evidence we needed to know in order for Tesla to reach 5k since the GF is no longer a bottleneck to get to 5k.

 

[Curt Renz]

Model Y will be delayed, Musk says - LA Times
Tesla production hiccups to continue until a 3rd line comes operational - NY Times
Sky rocketing battery costs adds to Tesla's woes - Business Insider
Musk uncertain if Tesla can meet its modest production goals for Q2 - WSJ
Low cost Model 3 plans abandoned - National Enquirer

And then this:

http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-feeding-live-babies-to-robots-2018-5?r=UK&IR=T

Tesla engineers feed live babies to Robots in Gigafactory

Talking about fake news, here's the most twisted and biased critique of the shareholder meeting that one can imagine. The cherry picking from the meeting and slanted editing to create the impression of negatives is incredible. It's all the distorted FUD you've ever heard about Tesla packed into four minutes. It even presents quotes from the risk factors section of the recent financial statement. That section is included by every public company making it appear on the verge of bankruptcy at the insistence of lawyers. You may want to join me in the comments and reports sections below the YouTube presentation which already has over 21,000 views, 1000 likes and 1600 dislikes.

"Elon Musk almost lost his chairmanship of the company." That's just for a starter.

 

[sundaymorning]

Why does he sound like he is crying? Did he break up with Grimes?

Elon gets emotional. It’s one of the many reason why I like watching his interviews, because it’s so raw and honest. This occured 3-4 times in the past where he almost broke a tear:

first, when Neil Armstrong objected to SpaceX and Elon stated “he’s the reason why we’re doing this.”

Second, when Deepak was retiring and Elon waived him off during a shareholder meeting.

Third, when they interviews him about the South Australian project and he found out the exorbant cost of Electricity that Australians were paying (his reply was “we’ll try to improve”).

And now, when he was thanking the team for marching through “hell” with him. Just vintage Elon and why we love him so much. The guy gets emotional when he talks about emotional things.

 

[Causalien]

He sounded like Elon to me, same way he always sounds, although he did seem to enjoy the questions from the shareholders in the audience, especially the one about "Elon time"

The breakups seems to happen when manufacturing first begin on a new Model. It makes sense as Elon puts all his time in Tesla and neglects time spent with his girlfriend. So Model 3 was the breaking point for Amber Heard so it should not be affecting him and Grimes.

Elon was probably emotional about something at the beginning of the conference. Speaking as someone who've been analyzing his body language for a while. But that's all there is to it. You can't really deduct the reasoning for his more emotional appearance.

That youtube guy and that guy holding a baby asks good and pointed questions. I'd like to see them back and appear often on conference calls. The guy with kids might be from this forum as he was asking about the JB Straubel signature missing from SEC filings.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I figure if he thinks that they can get lines 1&2 to 2500/week each, and line 3 is better, say 50% better, that would put them at 8,750/week. So they would either need to add one more line to get to 10,000/week, or they would need to replace one of the original lines with the new design. (Which would get you to exactly 10,000/week.)

And I think he said that it took just a couple weeks to build line 3. But do they really want to give up >5k of production to replace a line? My guess is that they will add line 4, and then come back and replace line 1, or 2, with the new version and then decommission the remaining old line. That gives them 11,250/week and extra space.

Of course that is just the general assembly portion. We don't know what might need to be done to other lines, body/paint/battery pack/motor/marriage/etc., to get up to full speed. (We just know that general assembly is the slowest portion right now; previously marriage was the bottleneck, and before that is was battery pack.)

Lines 1 & 2 are probably too expensive to run and/or to hard for workers, there were comments of that nature in the past (in Elon's email to workers?).
I fully expect some transformation/conversion of 1&2 once 3 is full speed

 

[sundaymorning]

CNBC headlines, all positive:

Elon Musk says it's 'extremely likely' Tesla will make 5,000 Model 3 cars per week by month's end

Tesla shareholders strike down proposals to remove Musk as chairman and shake up board

Tesla reveals plans for a new factory in Shanghai at shareholder meeting

 

[sundaymorning]

Lines 1 & 2 are probably to expensive to run and/or to hard for workers, there were comments of that nature in the past (in Elon's email to workers?).
I fully expect some transformation/conversion of 1&2 once 3 is full speed

And this is likely how we get to 6-7k somewhere during the 3rd/4th Q

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

This will be my last post on the matter. Nothing personal 007. But I think there is a case to be made for maintaining a certain quality of the info on the board. The reason I don't post much is because I'm not a knowledgeable investor. TSLA is the first and currently the only individual stock I own, and I'm in deep. My thesis is mostly based on Elon's track record of technical achievement and business acumen vis a vis SpaceX and Tesla. I participate mostly to learn and post when I think I can add to the discussion. But you talk TA like you really know what you're talking about. And maybe you do, but then you say stuff like "I couldn't care less if I'm right or wrong". You're messing with the signal to noise ratio of the discussion. It devalues what has been a historically high quality discussion (no thanks to me as I lurked for four years before I created an account). It would be different if we all didn't know your history based on your own posts over the last year or so.

Here's a suggestion: I bet no one here would have a problem with your posts if you include a portion of your last post in your signature. This:


Regards, and best of luck with your trading.

Agreed.
Everyone is responsible for their own decisions, yet...
quality of discussions on this board lends credence to all voices, voices with or without merit. For new people, it's hard to know who is safe to listen to, who are davet(+) or jesselivenomore(+) vs. julian cox(-) of this world.

It's easy to fall pray to overt enthusiasm that sometimes develop; again, especially because high quality of discussion amplifies all messages and creates fake sense of comfort with group think. I don't find this true for any other public forum, in that sense TMC is pretty unique.

So as long as @TrendTrader007 continues with unbridled enthusiasm, I find it appropriate that someone else comes and comments: "Yup, but you were wrong many, many times, more than most". If I were not lazy, I'd take this role on myself.

I have blocked over 30 most vocal cheerleaders as a self-defense mechanism... That, and I don't appreciate one-sided comments, but mostly because I'm concerned of subconscious influence

 

[sundaymorning]

Agreed.
Everyone is responsible for their own decisions, yet...
quality of discussions on this board lends credence to all voices, voices with or without merit. For new people, it's hard to know who is safe to listen to, who are davet(+) or jesselivenomore(+) vs. julian cox(-) of this world.

It's easy to fall pray to overt enthusiasm that sometimes develop; again, especially because high quality of discussion amplifies all messages and creates fake sense of comfort with group think. I don't find this true for any other public forum, in that sense TMC is pretty unique.

So as long as @TrendTrader007 continues with unbridled enthusiasm, I find it appropriate that someone else comes and comments: "Yup, but you were wrong many, many times, more than most". If I were not lazy, I'd take this role on myself.

I have blocked over 30 most vocal cheerleaders as a self-defense mechanism... That, and I don't appreciate one-sided comments, but mostly because I'm concerned of subconscious influence

Where do you see us trading tomo? I think the information we received today puts a floor at 288-290s, we will likely retest $300 again, my guess is that sometimes next week we’ll break out above $300 until confirmation of 5k, then it’s game on.

 

[bambam4171]

The $100kw/h battery price is huge. Most manufacturers are currently trying to be below $180kw/h at Battery, not pack level. Battery most expensive thing in a EV the importance of this cannot be overstated.

 

[NicoV]

Where do you see us trading tomo? I think the information we received today puts a floor at 288-290s, we will likely retest $300 again, my guess is that sometimes next week we’ll break out above $300 until confirmation of 5k, then it’s game on.

Elon reaffirmed profitability and positive cash flow in Q3. We’re 24 days away from that quarter. If I were a short I would not wait to cover

 

[avoigt]

Elon gets emotional. It’s one of the many reason why I like watching his interviews, because it’s so raw and honest. This occured 3-4 times in the past where he almost broke a tear:

first, when Neil Armstrong objected to SpaceX and Elon stated “he’s the reason why we’re doing this.”

Second, when Deepak was retiring and Elon waived him off during a shareholder meeting.

Third, when they interviews him about the South Australian project and he found out the exorbant cost of Electricity that Australians were paying (his reply was “we’ll try to improve”).

And now, when he was thanking the team for marching through “hell” with him. Just vintage Elon and why we love him so much. The guy gets emotional when he talks about emotional things.

Let me add to this. I followed this emotional moments as well and was like "wow, I never ever seen a CEO in public almost crying".

Why is that important? It is a prove that he is deeply personally tied to the company, his employees, customers and the success of his mission. This is not about numbers or specs or missing timelines that he regrets but about achieving something ex-ordinary and feeling accountable.

Year ago when I started investing in Tesla I told myself, well the outlook of that venture is more than uncertain and in fact (almost) all new car companies with great products did get bankrupt so its more about having a leader and visionary CEO that brings the best people, customers, suppliers, financiers together for a mission otherwise they will die. His emotional touch made me confident he could be the one.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Elon reaffirmed profitability and positive cash flow in Q3. We’re 24 days away from that quarter. If I were a short I would not wait to cover

This means I have 24 days left to accumulate to the stake I want to be holding going into 5k/wk and profitability.

 

[mltv]

Talking about fake news, here's the most twisted and biased critique of the shareholder meeting that one can imagine. The cherry picking from the meeting and slanted editing to create the impression of negatives is incredible. It's all the distorted FUD you've ever heard about Tesla packed into four minutes. It even presents quotes from the risk factors section of the recent financial statement. That section is included by every public company making it appear on the verge of bankruptcy at the insistence of lawyers. You may want to join me in the comments and reports sections below the YouTube presentation which already has over 21,000 views, 1000 likes and 1600 dislikes.

"Elon Musk almost lost his chairmanship of the company." That's just for a starter.

@#$. you got me clicking on it. Why do I bother feed these guys with hits. Pretty much this is news this days.

 

[mltv]

Elon gets emotional. It’s one of the many reason why I like watching his interviews, because it’s so raw and honest. This occured 3-4 times in the past where he almost broke a tear:

first, when Neil Armstrong objected to SpaceX and Elon stated “he’s the reason why we’re doing this.”

Second, when Deepak was retiring and Elon waived him off during a shareholder meeting.

Third, when they interviews him about the South Australian project and he found out the exorbant cost of Electricity that Australians were paying (his reply was “we’ll try to improve”).

And now, when he was thanking the team for marching through “hell” with him. Just vintage Elon and why we love him so much. The guy gets emotional when he talks about emotional things.

It's probably Dwight Clark man. me too. *sniff*

 

[jeewee3000]

Elon reaffirmed profitability and positive cash flow in Q3. We’re 24 days away from that quarter. If I were a short I would not wait to cover

I am long TSLA, but I do not believe the stock price will move upwards massively during Q3. I am more confident $400 will be reached after the Q3 ER conference call (disclaimer: given they are cash flow positive and have positive GAAP net income).

 

[Tslynk67]

So, catching-up with the SHM and it was in deed a very positive event. Of course Elon promises lots of stuff, with optimistic timescales, but they always deliver in the end. Biggest news was that I think this is the first time Tesla have confirmed the Chinese factory, no? So all the rumours are true. Every passing day and I'm more confident with Tesla's world dominance and my very comfortable retirement.

BBC has a track-record of being anti-Tesla, but they include some of the positive news. Of course Elon didn't "survive" a vote, unless you need to "survive" a paper-cut on your finger...

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-44378971

 

[LordAstinus]

The $100kw/h battery price is huge. Most manufacturers are currently trying to be below $180kw/h at Battery, not pack level. Battery most expensive thing in a EV the importance of this cannot be overstated.

For me that's the biggest news for the long term, from a financial point of view. It will let them crush the competition in many fronts and be very profitable.

My guess is that until yesterday's good news materialise, Chanos & friends will try to portray them as wishes/lies.

But something very interesting, as an investor and for the short-term is that we can expect a good cadence of execution good news for the next months: Test-drives available, performance AWD delivered and reviewed by media, +5K/wk confirmed, autopilot improvements from this week (news on features and less news on accidents (hopefully)), Shanghai GF, storage projects, insurance, Tesla body shops, TM3s produced/delivered vs competition (eating them alive), Q3/Q4 results, ...

All of the could feed the click-bait monster (significant part of the media) for a while. You still have the media paid by shorts & other interests, but I wouldn't say it's the majority.

 

[Papafox]

For @AudubonB and all others,
This reddit post does an excellent job of summarizing important points of the Annual Meeting:
https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotor..._shareholder_meeting_official_thread/e06ag1d/

 

[Teslie]

"Model 3 LR if you order now, you might wait 3-4 months for new US order"

Still wondering how this is possible with 450,000 reservations waiting...