TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Hogfighter]

Yes, avoidance of confirmation bias is crucial (and is why I often come here).

I increased (not doubled) my short shortly after the shareholders' meeting, but unless there is more news, I probably won't do anything more until the Q2 delivery update. I have standing orders to buy back the lower half of my bear spreads, but at quite low prices.

You should only take a position on an investment, immaterial of the side, if you know the opposing side’s argument better than they do.

And never get emotional.

Edit: not lecturing, just adding to your belief that hanging out with those who don’t share your view is healthy.

 

[Gifford 3]

Just hold 3 weeks more to see what Elon will offers us. Not fear by FUD today.

 

[wipster]

Just hold 3 weeks more to see what Elon will offers us. Not fear by FUD today.

I think it's 2 weeks now...

Of course that's not in Elon time...

 

[EngRyan]

Ya but my options aren't in Elon time so if he could be punctual this time, that'd be greeeaaat. *Office Space voice*

And yes some other options are in real Elon time. Have to hedge those bets.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

I don't understand this. As a long when I see a large drop in stock price I buy more. Why would a short not dive in on a large move up? I mean come on $TSLA is a zero!

I am close to my limit for an individual stock position.

 

[bdy0627]

Exclusive: Tesla to close a dozen solar facilities in nine states -...

 

[wipster]

I normally can't stand Seeking Alpha, but here's another great article. Worth reading all of it.

Tesla: 9 Bear 'Facts' That Just Ain't So Tesla: 9 Bear 'Facts' That Just Ain't So - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha $TSLA, $F, $GM, $TTM

 

[EinSV]

Exclusive: Tesla to close a dozen solar facilities in nine states -...

Trimming fat in the solar business and taking the final step in converting the solar sales model to match the car business -- selling via the Internet and Tesla stores. Good.

 

[wipster]

Trimming fat in the solar business and taking the final step in converting the solar sales model to match the car business -- selling via the Internet and Tesla stores. Good.

Agreed. I predicted this when the RIF's were announced. I believe there was something about this news a day or so ago. They're concentrating on the Solar roofs at the Gigafactory. I feel for the staff being let go, but it was apparently necessarunder the restructuring. But they have experience in a growing Industry so hopefully they won't be without work for long.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Ya but my options aren't in Elon time so if he could be punctual this time, that'd be greeeaaat. *Office Space voice*

And yes some other options are in real Elon time. Have to hedge those bets.

Weeklies are pretty scary but some of our TSLA investors here have made out like bandits trading those. If I was going to buy options they would be long calls or LEAPs. I'm no technical trader and I would probably lose my shirt on any short term options.

 

[TNEVol]

You know we shorts are not all acting in concert?

Actually I agree. Similiarly, not all liberals/conservatives hate each other. Shorts can have an honest opinion that EV will not disrupt their comfort zone. While I don't agree with your views, I do not ridicule you.

 

[neroden]

Exclusive: Tesla to close a dozen solar facilities in nine states -...

Somehow Reuters found commenters to spin this negatively. Of course it's a positive. They're shutting down the expensive marketing and sales side of SolarCity now that they can generate Powerwall and Solar Roof reservations for zero marketing costs faster than they can fulfill them. Standalone solar-without-batteries is a business they're getting out of, and solar-and-batteries doesn't need salespeople; the solar business is now simply an adjunct to the battery business.

 

[sundaymorning]

Somehow Reuters found commenters to spin this negatively. Of course it's a positive. They're shutting down the expensive marketing and sales side of SolarCity now that they can generate Powerwall and Solar Roof reservations for zero marketing costs faster than they can fulfill them. Standalone solar-without-batteries is a business they're getting out of, and solar-and-batteries doesn't need salespeople; the solar business is now simply an adjunct to the battery business.

Some installation sites are being shut down as well too. While a handful of employees are moved to other sites, I think many will be let go. With Home Depot providing up to 50% of Tesla’s current installs, the short term effect will be less business. However, if Tesla can find a way to attract buyers into their stores then it’ll save them lots of money in the near/long term. Currently Tesla solar should have enough customers to keep them busy for awhile, but expect more volatility tomorrow. My gut tells me that bears have regained a little bit of momentum from us.

 

[EngRyan]

Weeklies are pretty scary but some of our TSLA investors here have made out like bandits trading those. If I was going to buy options they would be long calls or LEAPs. I'm no technical trader and I would probably lose my shirt on any short term options.

My TSLA position is 90% stock so that's my long play. The 10% options are a fun more frequent way to play the stock on the short term so I don't sell stock at the wrong time or buy on too many dips and overweight myself in TSLA. Right now I'm buying some calls on dips for his 3 weeks statement (July 6) and for after the Q2 conference call, Aug 17. Once the Aug 10 open next Thursday depending on the price then might grab a few there too for right after the call though premiums are usually the worst then.

 

[Tslynk67]

The usual morons are out on BBC: Musk's fury: Whistleblower or saboteur?

Note that this is the country that voted to leave the European Union, a decision more insanely stupid than 45.

I post there as DrStupid, btw, but I guess that would be pretty obvious if you read though.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Somehow Reuters found commenters to spin this negatively. Of course it's a positive. They're shutting down the expensive marketing and sales side of SolarCity now that they can generate Powerwall and Solar Roof reservations for zero marketing costs faster than they can fulfill them. Standalone solar-without-batteries is a business they're getting out of, and solar-and-batteries doesn't need salespeople; the solar business is now simply an adjunct to the battery business.

I think the problem the bulls may have with presenting this positively is that the obvious rejoinder is to ask, if this is a good thing now, why it wasn't a good thing three years ago. It may add to concerns about managerial competence in the company,

Leaving that aside, I think that it is probably a good thing for the company - not sure whether these costs were showing as cost of revenue or as SG&A but either way they are in desperate need of control.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

I think the problem the bulls may have with presenting this positively is that the obvious rejoinder is to ask why, if this is a good thing now, why it wasn't a good thing three years ago. It may add to concerns about managerial competence in the company,

Leaving that aside, I think that it is probably a good thing for the company - not sure whether these costs were showing as cost of revenue or as SG&A but either way they are in desperate need of control.

This development may also incentivize the board to settle the Delaware (and related federal) lawsuits over SolarCity, thus enabling them to be more focussed.

 

[Tslynk67]

I think the problem the bulls may have with presenting this positively is that the obvious rejoinder is to ask why, if this is a good thing now, why it wasn't a good thing three years ago. It may add to concerns about managerial competence in the company.

Tesla's business and products and moving very quickly, I think it's normal for them to react with different strategies for selling those products.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

I had expected a quiet time on Tesla news until the delivery update, but this news will cause all analysts to review the portion of their valuation which relates to Tesla Energy, so we may see some up/downgrades prior to the report.

I wish S&P would be as transparent as Moodys so we could assess the impact there.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I think it's 2 weeks now...

Of course that's not in Elon time...

This never gets old Newton’s fourth law. Should be included in standard brokerage account disclosures: “TSLA investments involve additional risks, which include currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely.”