TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[fmonera]

Blood bath. Hope we hold $352.

There is selling on top during the upward movement approaching to the resistance, but not too much, and there was a lot of buying in the bottom, so I doubt this is a turn in the market. It is more the professional needing to shake out all of us

At the moment it is not a blood bath. Unless more selling happens and some downward intention is shown, this It is the beginning of a correction, which by the way, needs to go a deeper and longer in time to keep the uptrend sane.

Unless you bought at the strong 360-370 resistance you shouldn't feel any pressure. For me, there were no entry points above 300 or so.

For me, if I see buying in 330 - 340 and then some upward intention, I will add some more longs to my portfolio.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Large investors and funds do not get margin called because Tesla would be just one position among many that are managed.

In practice, a 'Tesla short' would only compromise an X% say 5% of a funds position. As Tesla price rises, they trim their short by covering some of their shares but not at a rate that would trigger a Volkswagon esque short squeeze.

As share prices rise, longs relieve pressure by exiting their position. Shorts can also dollar average their shorts by adding on during "sell the news" and at key resistance levels to keep price down.

The only way to squeeze shorts in a hurry is if longs do not sell / dry up access to shares to cover. Since that scenario is unlikely, a year or two of continuous good news without huge pullbacks will be enough to force the initial shorts out of their position due needing to trim the liabilities on their balance sheet.

Also a lot of professional shorts hedge by owning the bonds (especially the convertibles). As the stock rises, so does the value of the bonds, so adding additional collateral.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Wow, this has been tough to watch today.
I'm ready for this quarter to be over...for a lot of reasons, mostly so we can get this tax credit thing behind us and move on to normal day to day production, invite and delivery.

Two more weeks.

Dan

 

[CuriousSunbird]

You’re a rare bird .

Most shorts band together to strengthen their confirmation bias just like we do here on TMC.

But you have generally been more balanced in your comments than most shorts, and with a far more respectful tone throughout.

Have you doubled down on your put position with the recent price increase by buying more?

Or do we about have you ready to consider a long position on the next price dip?

Yes, avoidance of confirmation bias is crucial (and is why I often come here).

I increased (not doubled) my short shortly after the shareholders' meeting, but unless there is more news, I probably won't do anything more until the Q2 delivery update. I have standing orders to buy back the lower half of my bear spreads, but at quite low prices.

 

[jhm]

Just a friendly reminder from the Faithful Blind, the bless range is $300 to $350. So current price is nice for long-term accumulation.

But what we know? We just blindly trust Musk will earn his compensation package.

 

[DragonWatch]

Except for news, this will depend entirely on the market. Tech is down in general. TSLA just has a habit of exaggerating the market movements.

Had to take the GrandPup out for breakfast, saw a vintage WWII prop job ~ I was more excited that the six year old. Yesterday, I saw a B29 circling one last time before landing. My dad's era Very tempted to pay the $450 for a ride

Okay, yes the entire market is down today and in the predawn hours everything was green with the exception of Tesla which I was fully aware of the chatter here on the thread. So, I was expressing that observation. Now, as you stated the market is driving the overall picture red ~ everything I watch is red and getting redder. However, during upward movement by TSLA during phases like this, they are green while the rest are wallowing in red. Therefore, for the moment I think it is the extra weight of FUD and corporate theft that is driving this current movement south.

I just re-read your comment and I like your statement "TSLA just had a habit of exaggerating the movement."

 

[Unpilot]

I'm thinking out with my Netflix stock and in with some more sale price tesla

 

[jhm]

Tesla Received Tip That Former Employee Was Going to 'Shoot the Place Up'
Yikes, we really do not want an active shooter situation at the Gigafactory.

 

[aubreymcfato]

This is not correct, Q2 is much better than Q2 last year as the first two months delivered way more cars than the same time last year and June is on-track to beat last year too, I think quarter fro quarter they are around 70% higher. This is because Tesla are evening out their deliveries to avoid a push rush at the end.

You're right, maybe my expectations are a bit high. The problem is that 2017 Q3 and Q4 were so great that everything dwarfes in comparison: I've put more data here.

 

[Reality]

Yes, avoidance of confirmation bias is crucial (and is why I often come here).

Agreed

 

[Hogfighter]

Had to take the GrandPup out for breakfast, saw a vintage WWII prop job ~ I was more excited that the six year old. Yesterday, I saw a B29 circling one last time before landing. My dad's era Very tempted to pay the $450 for a ride

Okay, yes the entire market is down today and in the predawn hours everything was green with the exception of Tesla which I was fully aware of the chatter here on the thread. So, I was expressing that observation. Now, as you stated the market is driving the overall picture red ~ everything I watch is red and getting redder. However, during upward movement by TSLA during phases like this, they are green while the rest are wallowing in red. Therefore, for the moment I think it is the extra weight of FUD and corporate theft that is driving this current movement south.

I just re-read your comment and I like your statement "TSLA just had a habit of exaggerating the movement."

Do it....it’s worth the money.

 

[Unpilot]

Sigh I had a chance to be a pilot on "FiFi"

 

[EinSV]

Ihor Dusaniwsky says short interest is now at $12.9B, which works out to 37.1M shares ($12.9B/$347.51).

This is up from 36.8M shares in his report on Tuesday (6/20).

He also notes there was $100M in new shorting today, which undoubtedly contributed to the SP decline today.



Ihor Dusaniwsky‏ @ihors3 1h1 hour ago
$TSLA shorts are up $524 million in mark-to-market profits today on a down 4.1% trading day. @tesla shorts cut 22% off their year-to-date losses and the $12.9 billion of shorts are down "only" $1.83 billion for the year. There was over $100 million of new short selling today.

 

[bpjod]

Wow, this has been tough to watch today.
I'm ready for this quarter to be over...for a lot of reasons, mostly so we can get this tax credit thing behind us and move on to normal day to day production, invite and delivery.

Two more weeks.

Dan

Agreed. I, a Canadian, got my car way earlier than I should have likely in large part due to postponing the 200,000th delivery in the US. Now Tesla can get back to the business of putting Teslas in the hands of Americans again . Then we can really see what they're capable of doing when trying to build and deliver cars as fast as they can.

Got my car, now make my shares skyrocket!

 

[Waiting4M3]

Ihor Dusaniwsky says short interest is now at $12.9B, which works out to 37.1M shares ($12.9B/$347.51).

This is up from 36.8M shares in his report on Tuesday (6/20).

He also notes there was $100M in new shorting today, which undoubtedly contributed to the SP decline today.



Ihor Dusaniwsky‏ @ihors3 1h1 hour ago
$TSLA shorts are up $524 million in mark-to-market profits today on a down 4.1% trading day. @tesla shorts cut 22% off their year-to-date losses and the $12.9 billion of shorts are down "only" $1.83 billion for the year. There was over $100 million of new short selling today.

If on average each short shorts 100-1000 shares, the total of ~40 million shares would mean 100s of 1000s of shorts attacking Tesla. But now Tesla is selling the M3, there will be 100s of 1000s new Tesla drivers out there. We will win this FUD war, 5000 new converts per week.

 

[EinSV]

If on average each short shorts 100-1000 shares, the total of ~40 million shares would mean 100s of 1000s of shorts attacking Tesla. But now Tesla is selling the M3, there will be 100s of 1000s new Tesla drivers out there. We will win this FUD war, 5000 new converts per week.

Yep -- in the next 12 months, Tesla will very likely sell more cars than in its entire history, and all of those new customers should be great advocates.

FWIW, I expect the vast majority of the short interest is held by relatively few hedge funds or other interests, although there are also a huge number of smaller players and retail shorts running about as well, sucked in by the $TSLAQ hype machine.

 

[LordAstinus]

If on average each short shorts 100-1000 shares, the total of ~40 million shares would mean 100s of 1000s of shorts attacking Tesla. But now Tesla is selling the M3, there will be 100s of 1000s new Tesla drivers out there. We will win this FUD war, 5000 new converts per week.

5,000 x 10 (family/friends/test drives)...

 

[JRP3]

I increased (not doubled) my short shortly after the shareholders' meeting, but unless there is more news, I probably won't do anything more until the Q2 delivery update.

I don't understand this. As a long when I see a large drop in stock price I buy more. Why would a short not dive in on a large move up? I mean come on $TSLA is a zero!

 

[Skryll]

5,000 x 10 (family/friends/test drives)...

And over thanksgiving tens of thousands of families

 

[Duffer]

You know we shorts are not all acting in concert?

You appear more clinical/open minded in the reasoning behind your short position than most of your brethren. I'm always appreciative of other's viewpoints (all topics, not just Tesla) when they are given without hype/FUD.

@theschnell I don't think that our bird friend is quite ready to join us yet... Soon, but not yet.