Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
I think the timing of 5k and GF by end of June is ahead of market expectation. Elon making his own deadline is not "priced in", maybe back in June 2017, but not now.
Agree none of these is priced in.
Bloomberg is still below 3500/wk, nobody trust Elon and there is enough FUD around saying no way, so anything above 4k I think wil be a surprise. As for China the big unanswered question is how is going to be financed, and that’s definitely not priced in as nobody has a clue other than Elon.
 
5k & Chinese GF should mostly already be priced in.

Agree none of these is priced in.
Bloomberg is still below 3500/wk, nobody trust Elon and there is enough FUD around saying no way, so anything above 4k I think wil be a surprise. As for China the big unanswered question is how is going to be financed, and that’s definitely not priced in as nobody has a clue other than Elon.

My current model shows that “priced in” of 5k/week Model 3 should be around $365.

This is based on 1 year forward assumption sales rates of 400k Model 3 per year @ ASP of 42.5k and 100k Model S/X per year @ ASP of 100k and modest growth in Tesla Energy.

A Chinese GF and increased production changes that dramatically. Going to 1M cars per year, at a 90/10 % mix for 3/Y and S/X, bumps my upward target to $675 or so.
 
The problem is I don’t believe even 6000/wk right now would necessarily burn the shorts THAT bad. That would cause a bit of a run up sure, but nothing that spectaculer, and Q2 earnings will still likely be a drag. It feels like decent production numbers and upcoming profitability is already priced in. I don’t know, will try not to think about it anymore until next week.
How many people will order or have ordered since they opened the floodgates? If 50,000 people put down $2500 that’s an extra 100 million in the bank. 100,000 would be 250 million. Not enough to offset cash flow challenges for q2, but it doesn’t hurt. With 10,000 or more cars sitting on lots for early July delivery, cash flow for q2 will look bad.
 
The end game is when we find out whether there is sufficient demand for M3 at a price level which will enable Tesla to be sustainably profitable.
So, that's already happened. "Yes".

I take it you're invested long now? ;)

To serious investors, the only questions are how long it's going to take Tesla to straighten out its internal management/production problems, and how much capex it will cost Tesla could be sustainably profitable at these Model 3 prices right now if they had thrown in a few hundred million dollars more in capex to duplicate a couple of lines. Demand has NEVER been an issue. Gross margins lower than originally planned will STILL lead to sustainable profit.
 
Last year, the July 4th weekend kicked of a Bear raid, in two weeks we dropped from ATH to 306. We have recovered a bit. Looking forward for the momentum to continue along with positive numbers ... so there is a good chance of hitting ATH by next FRI

Today is likely the last day before numbers come out (on Sun)
I'm expecting another bear raid on July 4th weekend, and I'm not expecting numbers to be released until a bit later (either the holiday or next weekend). I could be wrong.
 
  • Like
Reactions: elasalle
I'm expecting another bear raid on July 4th weekend, and I'm not expecting numbers to be released until a bit later (either the holiday or next weekend). I could be wrong.

Methinks you're mistaken about the date of the number release just because of past history. But you're never wrong...
 
  • Like
  • Funny
Reactions: NicoV and neroden
Also re-iterated those comments 12 days ago.
View attachment 313352
The "about 3 weeks" comment was made on June 17. IMHO, this is an extremely strong hint that the news is arriving on the weekend of July 8th, not before. Expect a bear raid over July 4 weekend, but be positioned by the end of the week for the news.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MartinAustin
Elon’s recent attacks on twitter toward shorts are at least half of the reason I bought back in today. If I’m wrong and it ends up being a sizzle, my bad I guess. I’m willing to take that bet.

I agree there is likely more going on than potentially 5k/wk. my best guess is energy related but i really don’t know. The way he directly responded to Goldmans low prediction makes me think it’s related to short burn too, though. I mean news of 5k/wk would make me happy, but disappointed that it wasn’t something more.

I'll be "pessimistic" and say 5000/week may still not quite be happening (looks like the paint shop may still need a little work).

There is other news which isn't priced in, as you suspect. Energy is likely. We just had the gigawatt energy storage contract announced, and the Puerto Rico utility RFP (which Tesla is probably going to win).

And... I think parts of the market may have badly underestimated Q2 Model 3 deliveries. Tambourine-O was claiming 22000, which is absurd. Something in the vicinity of 28000 is "market consensus" and seems more likely -- but there's enough margin for error in these guesses that it could easily be 30,000+.
 
The vehicle obviously wasn't built for you. So it is either a re-shuffle of another purchasers car, a potential test drive vehicle, or Tesla is building cars before orders are finalised as they can anticipate a purchase of that spec in short order.
Please note the number of variations currently available on the Model 3, not counting software variations or different wheels. If I'm correct, this is it:
(1) Paint color (6)
(2) AWD or not AWD
(3) Performance (always AWD)
(4) White interior (currently only available on Performance)

That's 6 paint colors x 4 configurations = 24 different configurations. Of *course* they're building them before orders are finalized.

One data point means very little compared to the number of vehicles Tesla is producing. Still, it sounds a little strange that vehicles are being produced without an order in place. I thought that was the core of their business model.
 
Was just thinking about that little ditty Elon tweeted yesterday.
The one with the "hard luck band" asking who wears short shorts.

So with all the recent articles and discussion about Elon vs the Shorts, we know that Elon did not tweet this as a reference to summer clothing, or cute legs, right?

Over the course of the last weeks' discussion, one thing seems pretty clear: the hedge funds and others shorting TSLA have continued to keep the level of short interest very high, no matter how much has been lost in the short term for their cause.
Apparently large, significant shorts are not short of cash, or determination; they are also not short of timed, coordinated FUD support in the media; and are certainly not short of expertise on how to keep their positions rolling and capitalize on any moment of "market weakness."

So what would make these shorts short? What would they be short of?

Shares, that's all.
Gonna be short on shares to cover, and with that, they are probably gonna start feeling short on time, too.
Going to be very hard to wait for the next correction.

Is this why Elon has been buying shares? (As have all the current longs who can find dry powder)
When the demand for shares pops enough and FOMO takes hold, it will turn into something like a game of musical "shares."
Someone gets left out .... margin called (when the music stops.)

So to the question in the Royal Teens' tune "who wears short shorts?"
Elon's answer seems to be:
We (TSLA shareholders) "wear" short shorts!
Just my humble opinion, not an expert.
I do think I'm going to like wearing short shorts, I think they are very cool!

Hold tight, if you can. Don't sell during launch.

(not advice)
 
Was just thinking about that little ditty Elon tweeted yesterday.
The one with the "hard luck band" asking who wears short shorts.

So with all the recent articles and discussion about Elon vs the Shorts, we know that Elon did not tweet this as a reference to summer clothing, or cute legs, right?

Over the course of the last weeks' discussion, one thing seems pretty clear: the hedge funds and others shorting TSLA have continued to keep the level of short interest very high, no matter how much has been lost in the short term for their cause.
Apparently large, significant shorts are not short of cash, or determination; they are also not short of timed, coordinated FUD support in the media; and are certainly not short of expertise on how to keep their positions rolling and capitalize on any moment of "market weakness."

So what would make these shorts short? What would they be short of?

Shares, that's all.
Gonna be short on shares to cover, and with that, they are probably gonna start feeling short on time, too.
Going to be very hard to wait for the next correction.

Is this why Elon has been buying shares? (As have all the current longs who can find dry powder)
When the demand for shares pops enough and FOMO takes hold, it will turn into something like a game of musical "shares."
Someone gets left out .... margin called (when the music stops.)

So to the question in the Royal Teens' tune "who wears short shorts?"
Elon's answer seems to be:
We (TSLA shareholders) "wear" short shorts!
Just my humble opinion, not an expert.
I do think I'm going to like wearing short shorts, I think they are very cool!

Hold tight, if you can. Don't sell during launch.

(not advice)

Ah, but since we are all playing detective this weekend, why did Elon say "Who likes short shorts," when the lyrics are "Who wears short shorts?"

Riddle me this Batman!
 
  • Funny
Reactions: neroden
Not sure if this has been posted and I have NO WAY to verify the accuracy: AccurateTrading on Twitter


850 today???

Unless there is any truth in that bottom line about being a production associate, "I think they will make 850 today" is the same as any speculation here. I also think they have done 4 days of 600-650 and will finish with three days over 800.
I'm trying to not be too hopeful.
 
  • Like
Reactions: neroden and erha
Whoa whoa whoa. I don’t think we should run ahead of ourself here. I’d say an exit rate of 5200 is maximum. Try to look at it from the perspective of Elon and Tesla employers. They have probably overcome tons of hurdles we don’t know about and hitting 5k will feel like a massive win. Hence the optimistic tweets from Elon.

How Wall Street will react is not easy to say. I think it will be received very positive, but not short squeeze territory yet. If I had to guess I’d say TSLA trades in the 360s next week. We need positive earnings to break through ATM I think.

You’re basically saying Elon is wrong.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.