TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mongo]

They have dramatically increased production as people who have reserved in recent weeks are getting VINs and delivery dates in early July.

No argument there, I was addressing

Still, it sounds a little strange that vehicles are being produced without an order in place. I thought that was the core of their business model.

Tesla has the configuration preferences of reservation holder to adjust build variants against, even if the person has not locked in.

 

[hacer]

I actually work with Markov chains, but I can't tell what you are suggesting.

Markov chains are the basis of queuing theory.

 

[Seesaw]

No argument there, I was addressing

Tesla has the configuration preferences of reservation holder to adjust build variants against, even if the person has not locked in.

Yeah we are seeing loads getting cars manufactured within days instead of the 3-5 months quoted. It’s possible for someone to be a first time reserver and have their car shortly now.

Production must of stepped up significantly as there are not many combos of LR Model 3s, so if people are getting cars quickly it means the supply curve has shifted

 

[defc0n]

Based upon Elon's tweets (which would be suicide if the number is below 5,000)... I would guess that the final seven days' production number is over 5,100 and below 5,200.

Stretch goal... if it is over 5,500... this means that it can be said in the press release that "6,000 per week is around the corner."

Eyes will start to turn towards the EOY2018 goal of 10,000 per week, and if Tesla are already at 5,500+ by July 1st, it will be hard for shorts to argue with any scientific weight that Tesla can't reach 10,000/wk by the end of the year.

I think those numbers will be released after closing on Tuesday 3rd.

I think there will be another announcement after closing on Friday 6th... so the first opportunity anyone will have to trade after that will be Monday 9th, the end of Elon's 3-week countdown. My money is on a Chinese factory announcement: the building is substantially complete, here's the address and some pics, and the schedule for Chinese production (after filling it up with equipment) and deliveries will be announced.

You can’t have a gigafactory going up without people noticing...

 

[defc0n]

I disagree, a profit is what would cause the destruction of shorts and would marry up with Elon’s tweets. A lot of production predictions are factored in. In the end Tesla can make as many EVs as it can if they are willing to lose a couple of billion a year, but doing so profitably changes the game completely.

Tesla won’t be profitable in Q2.

 

[mongo]

Yeah we are seeing loads getting cars manufactured within days instead of the 3-5 months quoted. It’s possible for someone to be a first time reserver and have their car shortly now.

Production must of stepped up significantly as there are not many combos of LR Model 3s, so if people are getting cars quickly it means the supply curve has shifted

Plus Tesla has lots of lots filled with cars (possibly due to 200k in Q3) they are now delivering. Even at a fast manufacturing rate, the car still needs transported to customer.

 

[defc0n]

5k exit rate with more than 30k production will trigger 10% run in the stock. And then news of China GF followed by release of autopilot update will trigger additional 10% run enough to scare bears cause short burn.

5k & Chinese GF should mostly already be priced in.

 

[Hogfighter]

5k & Chinese GF should mostly already be priced in.

I’m not so sure about that. Lots of big money players believe the likes of David Tamberridiot more than Elon Musk.

 

[AlMc]

5k & Chinese GF should mostly already be priced in.

Agree on the 5k...but not the Chinese GF. I am not sure we will hear about a Chinese GF but it will have a positive effect on the current SP.

 

[defc0n]

Agree on the 5k...but not the Chinese GF. I am not sure we will hear about a Chinese GF but it will have a positive effect on the current SP.

I mean Elon has essentially already said there is going to be a Chinese GF to the public. And that helped propel a runup of the stock after the shareholders meeting like you would expect, and that’s where we are today.

 

[madodel]

The comments people are leaving... Pure fire. It's like everyone who has a Not-a-Flamethrower are unloading their entire tanks on Tripp. At least he's getting a feel for how people really feel about him now.

It is really amazing how much Tesla has achieved when it has had to deal with all these insane and greedy people and groups out to destroy it.

 

[STARR X]

I have long been jaded about Elon's projections. But I am risking something this time for the short burn because of the short's response through the media. It's almost like... I can smell their fear.

Before, it was always Elon trying to prove short's thesis wrong. This time, it's the other way around and Elon isn't giving up what his position is.

I have been around here long enough to agree with you and it will be interesting to see if you are right with your observation.

 

[Krugerrand]

Honestly I suspect most people are so accustom to Elon overly optimistic timeframe that guidance will hold little gredance w/investor. Therefore, I feel the most important aspect are going to be actual verified numbers and not projected numbers. That being said, guidance can’t hurt.

I do think with Elon not backing down from his 5k projection plus the short burn comments, along the way combined with recent tweets, Elon is pretty confident on his ability to impress with production numbers. Only time will tell!

has Elon or Tesla announced when they plan to release production numbers?

Hasn’t your friend that works there told you? Course since he was way off last time...

 

[SW2Fiddler]

If I had to guess I’d say TSLA trades in the 360s next week. We need positive earnings to break through ATM I think.

Alien Tourist Musk
Ability To Mountain

...Agreed: Tencent Matters!

 

[Waiting4M3]

5k & Chinese GF should mostly already be priced in.

I think the timing of 5k and GF by end of June is ahead of market expectation. Elon making his own deadline is not "priced in", maybe back in June 2017, but not now.

 

[erha]

Alien Tourist Musk
Ability To Mountain

...Agreed: Tencent Matters!

Haha, took me a while to spot my own typo. ATH of course...

 

[defc0n]

I think the timing of 5k and GF by end of June is ahead of market expectation. Elon making his own deadline is not "priced in", maybe back in June 2017, but not now.

A little bit right now, sure. My point is those make it about a $370 stock. Not enough to warrant Musks warnings. My belief still is that there must be something more than that brewing.

 

[ggr]

I was talking about car manufacturing. This is TMC forum, or no ?

GM Will Crank Cars 24-Hours A Day In Bid To Surpass Toyota In Efficiency
BTW, this was just the first link in a google of "car manufacturing 24/7".

 

[jhm]

Markov chains are the basis of queuing theory.

So you are suggesting that orders are queuing up?

 

[Bobfitz1]

I think the timing of 5k and GF by end of June is ahead of market expectation. Elon making his own deadline is not "priced in", maybe back in June 2017, but not now.

I'm not sure combo of 5K and China GF announcement is fully baked into current SP. Mostly but maybe not fully.
However, what I don't think may be baked in is Tesla opening up the order flood gates to M3 Dual and Performance variants
to any and all reservation holders. It has only been two or three weeks since the best Q3 and Q4 earning projections were based on assumptions of 5K per week sales of LR Rear Motor at it's projected gross margin. Now preference has redirected to building as many higher margin M3s as possible. A cherry on the sundae might be announcing a really large number of reservation holders ordering these higher margin cars and handing Tesla $2500 apiece. That combo well might push SP to ATH.