TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SunCatcher]

A funny side note here: when I got a brand new VW car of my company I had to pick it up from the dealer with mostly no gasoline left.

What's better than picking up your new VW with mostly no gasoline left? Picking up one with mostly no diesel left.

 

[aznt1217]

Grasping for even more straws...

Trollololol

I laughed WAY too hard at this.

 

[Finley&OtisDad]

So very encouraging for the next quarter is the number of cars in transit- around 12,000. Add to that 2 months of production (assuming last month gets pushed to Q4 delivery) of the higher rates and you could see a Q3 number of M3 delivers north of 36,000!

 

[MilosK]

5031 Model 3s - 1913 Ss and Xs! [EDIT: Should add in the last week of the quarter]

 

[mikevbf]

Also very important from the press release:
"We also reaffirm our guidance for positive GAAP net income and cash flow in Q3 and Q4, despite negative pressures from a weaker USD and likely higher tariffs for vehicles imported into China as well as components procured from China."

 

[wnorris]

Also very important from the press release:
"We also reaffirm our guidance for positive GAAP net income and cash flow in Q3 and Q4, despite negative pressures from a weaker USD and likely higher tariffs for vehicles imported into China as well as components procured from China."

"We expect that GA3 alone can reach a production rate of 5,000 Model 3s per week soon, but GA4 helped to get us there faster and will also help to exceed that rate."

It is important to note that soon Tesla will be able to sustain their current production rate without GA4. This is key information that we did not have. I would love to see GA4 shipped to China by the end of the year.

Use the "tents" in China if needed to get it up and operational in 2019.

 

[Unpilot]

Any chance for a MMD?

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Tesla releases official production numbers: 53,339 vehicles including 28,578 Model 3’s

Hubba, hubba, hubba:

The remaining net Model 3 reservations count at the end of Q2 still stood at roughly 420,000 even though we have now delivered 28,386 Model 3 vehicles to date. When we start to provide customers an opportunity to see and test drive the car at their local store, we expect that our orders will grow faster than our production rate. Model 3 Dual Motor All Wheel Drive and Model 3 Dual Motor All Wheel Drive Performance cars will also be available in our stores shortly.

So net new Model 3 orders about 10,000 per quarter for the second quarter running.

 

[Todd Burch]

Any chance for a MMD?

I think you're seeing it.

 

[Unpilot]

I think you're seeing it.

Yeah but the funny thing is the price they start from is always higher!

 

[sundaymorning]

Wow, Model 3 reservation looks so good!

“The remaining net Model 3 reservations count at the end of Q2 still stood at roughly 420,000 even though we have now delivered 28,386 Model 3 vehicles to date.”

So much for the bear case about cancellations...

 

[neroden]

I read a while back somewhere that Tesla is able to realize several forms of tax credits- both environmental ones for zero emissions vehicle in states like California, but also credits from Nevada as park of their Gigafactory deal. To what extent will these factor into profitability both in the short-term and the long-term. I am sure they are going to be profitable even without these, but this would seem to be gasoline on the fire of torching the short position. Thoughts?

Elon has described them as "mouse nuts" and said that in the long term they're worthless because they all drop in value as more EVs are produced. In the short term they're a nice cash booster, though.

 

[neroden]

I think you're seeing it.

Yep. Large gap up to open, then pressure downward. I don't think $360 is coincidental; I think it has to do with the convertible bonds. We'll see what happens next.

 

[Tslynk67]

So net new Model 3 orders about 10,000 per quarter for the second quarter running.

We don't know the cancellation rate, so judging new orders is tricky. Once there are a few 100k M3's out there then orders will pick-up dramatically. We saw the same effect with MS/X, the more people become aware, the more order.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

We don't know the cancellation rate, so judging new orders is tricky. Once there are a few 100k M3's out there then orders will pick-up dramatically. We saw the same effect with MS/X, the more people become aware, the more order.

But we know the net. Cancellations exceed orders by roughly 10,000.

 

[Mkorpal]

53359 for Q2. What we’re usa deliveries? Did they blow past 200,000?

Considering how many are in transit, I doubt it.

But I expect it any time now.

 

[Causalien]

Well. This is not enough to burn shorts. I hope there's more coming.

 

[aznt1217]

Well. This is not enough to burn shorts. I hope there's more coming.

Covering hasn't started yet. My shares that are loaned out have not been returned. Although anecdotal I'm hoping it's a useful point given that I am a retail investor.

 

[neroden]

I think we're simply witnessing very strong resistance every time the stock price rises above $360, which makes sense if you look at the convertible bonds. At some point it'll break through again (it has previously), and this time it probably won't fall back.

 

[PaulusdB]

Re: low volume due to absence of ‘the professionals'.

Current volume is above 5M within the first hour.