TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[jhm]

Was there something disappointing in the letter? I read it and it seemed quite positive so don’t really understand the market reaction.

No, the letter was great. Bears go to great length to suppress the price so as to make investors think that the news was bad. This is news nullification. So read the letter for yourself. If you think this is a positive development for Tesla, trust your own interpretation, ignore the market noise and invest accordingly.

 

[Rarity]

I estimate at least $20 million spent on manipulative moves today, based on counting the minutes with volume spikes and fast drops. It might be more if some of the other high-volume spikes were failed attempts.

They dropped 400,000 shares this morning from Interactive Brokers alone. But it looks like they ran out of ammo in the afternoon.

IBorrow Desk

 

[Reality]

i didn’t see rumors of the botched 200k. was it a real news source (i use that term lightly) or twitter, for example

Silence on the issue + inside evs + data points suggest it (ie Troy's analysis)

I think it is likely they lie though, who knows.

 

[Skryll]

i didn’t see rumors of the botched 200k. was it a real news source (i use that term lightly) or twitter, for example

Why We Believe Tesla Passed 200k U.S. Deliveries in June Motor1's recently acquired insideevs.com

 

[Reality]

They dropped 400,000 shares this morning from Interactive Brokers alone. But it looks like they ran out of ammo in the afternoon.

IBorrow Desk

not sure you are reading this right

 

[Richgoogol]

Apparently nobody cares from looking at the aftermarket SP. Its already factored in, this could be the main reason why the TSLA went down today so strongly. Just insiders playing information. I was very displeased before closing today. Was really expecting a mega-up day, especially when market bounced so well. However, as a TSLA shareholder you have to learn to be patient. Whoever laughs last will laugh the longest.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Am I supposed to take the now increasingly infamous 'short burn of the century' as being promised on Elon Time? So 3 weeks probably, 6 weeks definitely? How long am I going to have to hold these J18 calls? I mean, technically I have until January 18th, 2019 so I'm not sweating it that hard but I was promised fireworks for the 4th of July and so far I'm getting nothing but a wet squib. Sad!

OK, the serious part of the post. I'm interested in seeing how much short volume increased today in order to hold the share price down. There is a limit to how many shares can be shorted, after all. Once they are back near the hypothetical maximum shares shorted as percentage of float, they will have to back off a bit again like what happened in early June and allow a run-up in the price to reload. Each time they do this, the natural trend of the share price upwards will make it harder and harder to continue doing this. I hope the dam breaks soon.

 

[jhm]

New bill to remove limit for $7.5k electric vehicle federal tax credit introduced as Tesla hits threshold

It just so happens that the two first automakers to hit the threshold are likely going to be American automakers, Tesla and GM. Therefore, the U.S. federal government might end up having an EV incentive program that directly disadvantages the two biggest American electric automakers.

 

[wipster]

Am I supposed to take the now increasingly infamous 'short burn of the century' as being promised on Elon Time? So 3 weeks probably, 6 weeks definitely? How long am I going to have to hold these J18 calls? I mean, technically I have until January 18th, 2019 so I'm not sweating it that hard but I was promised fireworks for the 4th of July and so far I'm getting nothing but a wet squib. Sad!

It ain't the 4th of July quite yet..

 

[Skryll]

It ain't the 4th of July quite yet..

So looking at Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard and at the announcement by tesla "Q2 deliveries totaled 40,740 vehicles, of which 18,440 were Model 3, 10,930 were Model S, and 11,370 were Model X", does that mean that deliveries for June are 8315 Model 3 (not much more than May's 6250 estimated), 8160 Model S (much more than May's 1520 estimated) and 8895 Model X (much much more than May's 1450 estiamted) ?

Isnt that quite the surprise, that they scaled up Model S and X that much? I am glad I doubled down this morning on some of my calls

UPDATE: I was wrong, the tesla numbers are international while the evinside numbers are US deliveries, so no idea where those will be in comparison.

 

[Big Earl]

Why We Believe Tesla Passed 200k U.S. Deliveries in June Motor1's recently acquired insideevs.com

According to them, they didn’t account for stockpiling. Based on recent reports here, it’s clear that Tesla was aggressively stockpiling in June. It also seems like their Canadian estimates are low. This will clear up in the coming days and next week will be big (remember, three weeks from the 24th; this is only week two).

 

[sundaymorning]

Really sorry to see him go, but I can imagine how he might feel now that they reached 5000/wk after having missed the 2500/wk 3 months ago. Arguably Elon did a better job than him in ramping production...
This is a simplification obviously, but he may feel the pain of it...

Fields did great for us, and Model 3 is the evidence for his work. After years of spending so much time at Tesla I don’t blame him for moving on. It takes a lot of time away from home and family, he may have wanted to come back before the sabbatical... But once he was on vacation, he may of realized that time with his family is much more enjoyable. Plus, I think he realizes that Tesla is “a real company” now, and it’s in good hands. I hope the new execs work just as hard as Fields.

 

[MP3Mike]

So looking at Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard and at the announcement by tesla "Q2 deliveries totaled 40,740 vehicles, of which 18,440 were Model 3, 10,930 were Model S, and 11,370 were Model X", does that mean that deliveries for June are 8315 Model 3 (not much more than May's 6250 estimated), 8160 Model S (much more than May's 1520 estimated) and 8895 Model X (much much more than May's 1450 estiamted) ?

Isnt that quite the surprise, that they scaled up Model S and X that much? I am glad I doubled down this morning on some of my calls

That chart is US sales only, while Tesla is reporting total sales world-wide.

 

[jelloslug]

So looking at Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard and at the announcement by tesla "Q2 deliveries totaled 40,740 vehicles, of which 18,440 were Model 3, 10,930 were Model S, and 11,370 were Model X", does that mean that deliveries for June are 8315 Model 3 (not much more than May's 6250 estimated), 8160 Model S (much more than May's 1520 estimated) and 8895 Model X (much much more than May's 1450 estiamted) ?

Isnt that quite the surprise, that they scaled up Model S and X that much? I am glad I doubled down this morning on some of my calls

We don't know the break down of US vs rest of the world sales right now.

 

[jhm]

Regarding the federal tax credit, I wonder how exactly the 200,000 sales are counted. Specifically, does an EV sold count against this limit even if no one claimed the tax credit? There very well have been EVs sold which did not result in a credit. In any case, it seems very unlikely to me that Tesla could have botched this. They would have very precise records of what was sold and how it counts against the 200,000 vehicle threshold.

 

[MP3Mike]

Regarding the federal tax credit, I wonder how exactly the 200,000 sales are counted. Specifically, does an EV sold count against this limit even if no one claimed the tax credit?

Yes. It is total qualifying vehicles sold, regardless of if some/any of the tax credit was claimed.

 

[wipster]

So looking at Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard and at the announcement by tesla "Q2 deliveries totaled 40,740 vehicles, of which 18,440 were Model 3, 10,930 were Model S, and 11,370 were Model X", does that mean that deliveries for June are 8315 Model 3 (not much more than May's 6250 estimated), 8160 Model S (much more than May's 1520 estimated) and 8895 Model X (much much more than May's 1450 estiamted) ?

Isnt that quite the surprise, that they scaled up Model S and X that much? I am glad I doubled down this morning on some of my calls

What MP3Mike and Jelloslug said...

 

[JRP3]

More than 2 times average volume and the bears couldn't keep it below $335. They threw everything they had at it, tomorrow could be interesting.

*Edit: Tomorrow will be interesting, one way or another.

 

[kbM3]

FYI
Tesla’s Manufacturing Turns to Advantage This Year, Says Guggenheim

edit : this does not makes me a tenant on either side of the ',they restrained under 200 000 units'' debate.

Thanks. I learned something from this article. Although I knew Tesla was very vertically integrated, I hadn’t thought through how that inflates fixed costs and pays off after production ramps in lower variable costs.

 

[schonelucht]

Feel like it would have been better had Tesla released the 8-K only tomorrow. Let the market simmer a bit on the 7000 news and then release hard numbers only tomorrow. On the other hand, this is not the first time that Tesla reacts counterintuitively. If we are honest there were quite a few times when the 8-K was plain bad and we still went up. So I guess it was to be expected that we'd eventually see this turn against us.

Edit : changed 10-K to 8-K.