TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[anticitizen13.7]

My brief take on today’s market action is that I actually see signs of desperation from the short camp.

First, there was a flood of Fake News hit pieces from the Mainstream Media. Second, a very high volume of trade and large blocks of shares strategically sold. Third, disbelief and even dismay at Reddit’s r/RealTesla, from many Tesla haters.

The Model 3 ramp has been long and difficult, but Tesla’s extreme persistence under Elon’s leadership is yielding results. That is scaring people.

 

[SteveG3]

Please head over to twitter and give Ross gerber some support. He did great on CNBC today.

CNBC on Twitter

VERY nice job by Gerber in this clip... with the guy shorting and the hosts. So far only this little clip is out (searched YouTube), but would be fun if the whole video turns up.

 

[BrianZ]

Putting on my Trump voice: "I'm gonna buy a Tesla, and I'm gonna make the shorts pay for it!"

Due to Elon's imminent warning of a short squeeze, I trust Elon enough that I'm willing to take some risks I'd normally wouldn't do, which is to do some mild trading of TSLA medium term options to see if I can get achieve much larger gains than holding shares.

I'm thinking of putting 50k into doing this for about 1-2 months. I know it isn't much to most of you here, but that's all that I'm comfortable of losing (well, I'll be a little unhappy, so I don't know if that counts as comfortable ). Afterwards I'll convert all into either shares or LEAPs as the long term risk vs reward of trading without a short squeeze coming is not worth it, especially when factoring in time.

My basic strategy will be to follow the law of nullifying news and buying dips to trade calls expiring in 1-2 months to try to profit from the volatility and hopefully buy low and sell high (which I've fully experienced how hard it can be to actually do). I don't think I will trade puts because I don't want to be wishing for TSLA's SP to go down. I won't trade actively, probably just a few times a week.

I will be watching the market tomorrow and hope for a bear raid that pushes the SP down below $330, and then buy some calls August or September calls. Please, PLEASE feel free to offer advice. I'm all ears. I definitely will not blame anyone if I lose money on their advice because I would have processed it myself and thought it was a good idea before doing it, and therefore all fault will lie on me. Also, I'm not betting the house, if I lose it all, it won't really affect me too much.

This is the most incredible community I've ever seen. The amount of knowledge, passion, and activity is unbelievable. I am inspired by the love of Tesla and their mission from this community, especially now learning what bad actors Tesla is up against. I've learned so much from you guys, and I love it here!

 

[sdtslafan]

Today was classic TSLA...going down on a day it SHOULD have gone up. I have learned this lesson many times. I remember back in the spring of 2014 when the stock actually dropped the day NHTSA closed the fire investigation that had been weighing on tesla for months....completely counterintuitive but no longer unexpected.

anyway, not too concerned although I am mildly leveraged.

But can we all agree that it would be completely illogical for Elon to think that meeting guidance of 5000 cars per week would be enough to cause a short squeeze? When he tweeted about "big numbers", what could he have been talking about? I previously thought it could have been unexpected X and S demand, but that does not appear to be the case based on the delivery numbers. So what is the likelihood that something big is yet to come and what is the likelihood that Elon was delusional when he tweeted about the short squeeze of the century? Where else could big numbers be hiding, maybe a TE contract or some unexpected partnership or something?

 

[GBleck]

Yes.
Shorts are using politicians' communication strategy: Keep repeating simple message, stay focused on agenda. Same message repeated from several sources.
Truth doesn't matter, it's all about memorable point and affecting those that will not dig further. This is coordinated...
Sad(for human race) and effective...

Proof by talking point.

 

[The Blue Owl]

When he tweeted about "big numbers", what could he have been talking about? I previously thought it could have been unexpected X and S demand, but that does not appear to be the case based on the delivery numbers. So what is the likelihood that something big is yet to come and what is the likelihood that Elon was delusional when he tweeted about the short squeeze of the century? Where else could big numbers be hiding, maybe a TE contract or some unexpected partnership or something?

I just asked the same question on another thread. Now I’m thinking that maybe he was simply referring to revenues. He likely knows the shorts can’t do simple arithmetic and they will be shocked at the number of commas in the quarterly results.

 

[RABaby]

I just asked the same question on another thread. Now I’m thinking that maybe he was simply referring to revenues. He likely knows the shorts can’t do simple arithmetic and they will be shocked at the number of commas in the quarterly results.

But if it is big numbers in reference to revenue, wouldn't that require an earnings report earlier than tradition in order to meet the three week schedule?

Personally I would like to hear that a few of his big buck friends who have more free cash than he does, are buying up a billion dollars each of TSLA, as the shorts are selling to them at a discount. But doing that and having announced it would amount to an admission of collusion and Musk would be skewered.

It has to be something obvious that is slapping us in the face and we just can't see it.

 

[defc0n]

I'm still holding out for Musk's 3 week prediction.

 

[Starno]

3 weeks is next Sunday.

There still is room

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Putting on my Trump voice: "I'm gonna buy a Tesla, and I'm gonna make the shorts pay for it!"

Due to Elon's imminent warning of a short squeeze, I trust Elon enough that I'm willing to take some risks I'd normally wouldn't do, which is to do some mild trading of TSLA medium term options to see if I can get achieve much larger gains than holding shares.

I'm thinking of putting 50k into doing this for about 1-2 months. I know it isn't much to most of you here, but that's all that I'm comfortable of losing (well, I'll be a little unhappy, so I don't know if that counts as comfortable ). Afterwards I'll convert all into either shares or LEAPs as the long term risk vs reward of trading without a short squeeze coming is not worth it, especially when factoring in time.

My basic strategy will be to follow the law of nullifying news and buying dips to trade calls expiring in 1-2 months to try to profit from the volatility and hopefully buy low and sell high (which I've fully experienced how hard it can be to actually do). I don't think I will trade puts because I don't want to be wishing for TSLA's SP to go down. I won't trade actively, probably just a few times a week.

I will be watching the market tomorrow and hope for a bear raid that pushes the SP down below $330, and then buy some calls August or September calls. Please, PLEASE feel free to offer advice. I'm all ears. I definitely will not blame anyone if I lose money on their advice because I would have processed it myself and thought it was a good idea before doing it, and therefore all fault will lie on me. Also, I'm not betting the house, if I lose it all, it won't really affect me too much.

This is the most incredible community I've ever seen. The amount of knowledge, passion, and activity is unbelievable. I am inspired by the love of Tesla and their mission from this community, especially now learning what bad actors Tesla is up against. I've learned so much from you guys, and I love it here!

1) don't do it, Elon himself said that he doesn't want and care about traders
2) if you decide to do it, do it by entering in multiple tranches, 1/3 after another, so you can average down (or up). Decide in advance what is your exit criteria, and obey it as if it were a law. It's too easy to make gains, get greedy and lose it all. Exit could also be in multiple tranches, but it's more complicated than that...
3) But really, this is a very, very good forum; yet, if you're asking for option strategies on the Internet forum, I'm not sure you're in the right spot to trade options.

 

[AZRI11]

What is going on with solar panels at the Nevada giga-factory? The aerials do not show any additional panels after the initial installation at the north (?) end.

Chanos is now shorting the sun.

 

[AZRI11]

I was keeping my mouth shut hoping I'm wrong on this, but looking at what's going on this just might be correct. Elon was so focused on the 5K number and spent so much time getting there, it might be that he simply values this achievement more than the market and was incorrect in assessing the impact of delivering on it. So it's either that or indeed some more good news coming, but I personally am not betting on the latter.

Best case scenario, the whole short game is now in the field of view of Tesla team, they anticipated today's scenario and there's something set up to make it hurt for the shorts.

Something wicked this way comes.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

I personally subscribe to Peak FUD Theory. And we are right about there... what I expect is for the news nullification efforts to start to prove less and less effective, as the Eye Roll Index increases. It’s really become more transparent lately even as it has peaked in stridency.

Not to say that the Koch FUD Bucks are going away, nor the interests who desire to pull a Tucker on Tesla. Just that those efforts are going to see diminishing returns as more of the public sees through it. Therefore the harder they push the more FUDiculous they will look.

Don’t relent on publicly correcting the fallacies. This is an advice.

 

[BrianZ]

1) don't do it, Elon himself said that he doesn't want and care about traders
2) if you decide to do it, do it by entering in multiple tranches, 1/3 after another, so you can average down (or up). Decide in advance what is your exit criteria, and obey it as if it were a law. It's too easy to make gains, get greedy and lose it all. Exit could also be in multiple tranches, but it's more complicated than that...
3) But really, this is a very, very good forum; yet, if you're asking for option strategies on the Internet forum, I'm not sure you're in the right spot to trade options.

You make some good points, I'm gonna think about this some more with your points in consideration.

One thing about 3 though. There are some things that TSLA is significantly more affected than other stocks, such as news nullification theory and shorts shorting the most at low SP rather than high SP. These are things that I would seek advice on because they are not the norm compared to regular stocks.

 

[jhm]

Putting on my Trump voice: "I'm gonna buy a Tesla, and I'm gonna make the shorts pay for it!"

Due to Elon's imminent warning of a short squeeze, I trust Elon enough that I'm willing to take some risks I'd normally wouldn't do, which is to do some mild trading of TSLA medium term options to see if I can get achieve much larger gains than holding shares.

I'm thinking of putting 50k into doing this for about 1-2 months. I know it isn't much to most of you here, but that's all that I'm comfortable of losing (well, I'll be a little unhappy, so I don't know if that counts as comfortable ). Afterwards I'll convert all into either shares or LEAPs as the long term risk vs reward of trading without a short squeeze coming is not worth it, especially when factoring in time.

My basic strategy will be to follow the law of nullifying news and buying dips to trade calls expiring in 1-2 months to try to profit from the volatility and hopefully buy low and sell high (which I've fully experienced how hard it can be to actually do). I don't think I will trade puts because I don't want to be wishing for TSLA's SP to go down. I won't trade actively, probably just a few times a week.

I will be watching the market tomorrow and hope for a bear raid that pushes the SP down below $330, and then buy some calls August or September calls. Please, PLEASE feel free to offer advice. I'm all ears. I definitely will not blame anyone if I lose money on their advice because I would have processed it myself and thought it was a good idea before doing it, and therefore all fault will lie on me. Also, I'm not betting the house, if I lose it all, it won't really affect me too much.

This is the most incredible community I've ever seen. The amount of knowledge, passion, and activity is unbelievable. I am inspired by the love of Tesla and their mission from this community, especially now learning what bad actors Tesla is up against. I've learned so much from you guys, and I love it here!

I hear your passion. I would simply encourage folks to stay focused on the long game. Short term trades are fraught with risks. But buying shares at low prices without leverage works best for me. Understanding the short term game is good for not becoming discouraged and for identifying when prices are cheap. But the pay off will come after Tesla has demonstrated solid earnings for years. So I keep my eyes on that.

All the best.

 

[aznt1217]

With all the hysteria going on with TSLA today, please take a good read at this from an actual person who is known for corporate finance and a more serious albeit outdated analysis.

Musings on Markets: A Tesla 2017 Update: A Disruptive Force and a Debt Puzzle!

I’m posting this because it’s a nuisance seeing all these “financial professionals” on CNBC making ridiculous claims with poor analytics and lack of big picture thinking.

After seeing Gordon Johnson’s segment and him continuously repeating how he’s an analyst bugged me to no end. The guy has no idea what he’s talking about and never made a thing in his life. Go on his LinkedIn profile and take a look at his history. He was part of Lehman Bros at the time of the financial market collapse. Enough said there. For those of you retail investors who aren’t sure who to turn to or have been pelted too much by the insane short rhetoric at the moment, take a read above and do your own analysis and come to your own informed investment decision. Unfortunately, I know of too many people that watch CNBC and message me asking what’s going on or make decisions based on what these talking heads say.

 

[AZRI11]

View attachment 314170

3 weeks is next Sunday.

There still is room

Elon is a real alien. That's the squeeze.

 

[Remus]

With all the hysteria going on with TSLA today, please take a good read at this from an actual person who is known for corporate finance and a more serious albeit outdated analysis.

Musings on Markets: A Tesla 2017 Update: A Disruptive Force and a Debt Puzzle!

I’m posting this because it’s a nuisance seeing all these “financial professionals” on CNBC making ridiculous claims with poor analytics and lack of big picture thinking.

After seeing Gordon Johnson’s segment and him continuously repeating how he’s an analyst bugged me to no end. The guy has no idea what he’s talking about and never made a thing in his life. Go on his LinkedIn profile and take a look at his history. He was part of Lehman Bros at the time of the financial market collapse. Enough said there. For those of you retail investors who aren’t sure who to turn to or have been pelted too much by the insane short rhetoric at the moment, take a read above and do your own analysis and come to your own informed investment decision. Unfortunately, I know of too many people that watch CNBC and message me asking what’s going on or make decisions based on what these talking heads say.

We saw this guy's YouTube video on this thread before, this is no different.

He basically assumes Tesla has a potential to grow to the size of BMW with bit higher margin. And he went on and on about Tesla shouldn't issue debt, should issue stock instead.

In my humble opinion Tesla's car business would beat Toyota out of water one day. And the reason Tesla chose to use debt financing is because they think their stock is drastically undervalued.

 

[jelloslug]

I personally subscribe to Peak FUD Theory. And we are right about there... what I expect is for the news nullification efforts to start to prove less and less effective, as the Eye Roll Index increases. It’s really become more transparent lately even as it has peaked in stridency.

Not to say that the Koch FUD Bucks are going away, nor the interests who desire to pull a Tucker on Tesla. Just that those efforts are going to see diminishing returns as more of the public sees through it. Therefore the harder they push the more FUDiculous they will look.

Don’t relent on publicly correcting the fallacies. This is an advice.

You will really start to see the "eye rolling effect" when the results of 5k a week start hitting the road in a week or two. People can buy into the FUD when they don't see cars, but when your neighbor and your coworker and they guy next to you in line at the store all have one, the people on CNBC and Twitter screaming about production issues and burst production start to really sound a bit loony.

 

[jelloslug]

With all the hysteria going on with TSLA today, please take a good read at this from an actual person who is known for corporate finance and a more serious albeit outdated analysis.

Musings on Markets: A Tesla 2017 Update: A Disruptive Force and a Debt Puzzle!

I’m posting this because it’s a nuisance seeing all these “financial professionals” on CNBC making ridiculous claims with poor analytics and lack of big picture thinking.

After seeing Gordon Johnson’s segment and him continuously repeating how he’s an analyst bugged me to no end. The guy has no idea what he’s talking about and never made a thing in his life. Go on his LinkedIn profile and take a look at his history. He was part of Lehman Bros at the time of the financial market collapse. Enough said there. For those of you retail investors who aren’t sure who to turn to or have been pelted too much by the insane short rhetoric at the moment, take a read above and do your own analysis and come to your own informed investment decision. Unfortunately, I know of too many people that watch CNBC and message me asking what’s going on or make decisions based on what these talking heads say.

To me, people that claim to be analysts of a certain market but have never actually worked in said market hold very little credibility.