bdy0627
Active Member
A short boil...where the shorts don't even realize they are getting cooked until it's too late to jump out. Now that actually sounds realistic to me.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Where are you folks getting "4 years" from? Electric states: The automaker confirmed the deal and said that it plans to start construction “in the near future” for the first cars to roll off the line in “2 years.”
And I think this will be beaten, given the steep learning-curve they've been through in the last couple of years.
No doubts all sorts of permits-and-*sugar* to get through that will take time, otherwise they'd just pitch a tent and have it spitting out M3's by the end of August
Edit: Tesla say 2-3 years to get to 500k
Tesla goes big in China with Shanghai plant
yes and tesla quoted in electrek article
We expect construction to begin in the near future after we get all the necessary approvals and permits. From there, it will take roughly two years until we start producing vehicles and then another two to three years before the factory is fully ramped up to produce around 500,000 vehicles per year for Chinese customers. Tesla is deeply committed to the Chinese market, and we look forward to building even more cars for our customers here.
thinking perhaps something on financing the new factory to come.
I’ve thought about what Tesla and Tencent can offer each other (might make a good thread topic).
Perhaps it’s simply the help and leverage Tencent likely offered Tesla in negotiating with the Chinese government.
Tencent funds is a very visible possibility.
What else?
I think about the autonomous EV fleets that will help China respond to congestion and pollution in their many large cities.
I don’t see China allowing a non-Chinese company to be awarded these fleets (I suspect autonomous fleets will be similar to utilities... few, or even one operator, per city).
Tencent could offer Tesla themselves as a partner the Chinese government would be willing to choose for major autonomous EV urban fleets (the further ahead Tesla is on autonomous tech vs Chinese companies the more likely this is). Such a partner is likely a requirement for Tesla to get into this potentially enormously profitable market.
Tesla, within perhaps as little as 2-3 years, could offer Tencent the autonomous EVs that are a requirement for Tencent to get into that potentially massively profitable market.
So my hope/shot in the dark, is an announcement of some Tencent/Tesla partnership on autonomous EV fleets in a Chinese city (or several), with some near term plans for pilot testing moving in on approval by Chinese regulators. AND, an upfront payment from Tencent for this partnership with milestone payments laid out (ie initiation of trial fleets, approval of rollout of commercial fleet(s), etc).
So, maybe an upfront payment on a new joint venture not on the mfg plant, but, bringing Tesla cash very near term they can use to help cover the cost of constructing plant.
Tying this to the thread... that would seem the sort of catalyst that could move the stock (though I do not think in terms of a real “short squeeze” myself).
Last edited:
With the current known data, we have Tesla @ 1million Cars/year in late 2021 or 2022 (Fremont at 500k is maxed out and China GF3) which is too low in growth?
GF4 Germany soon?
GF4 Germany soon?
I do not believe most are anticipating over a million vehicles before '21. @moe.salih has a well kept spreadsheet with decent estimates.
Tesla Financials
Tesla Investor Dashboard
Last edited:
umm....let's give Tesla at least 5 years for 500,000 in China and it's mid 2018 already, so really by 2023/2024.
bdy0627
Active Member
Interesting line from the Reuter's article: "In its statement, the Shanghai government suggested it could help with some of the capital costs. "The Shanghai municipal government will fully support the construction of the Tesla factory," the statement said."
Tesla goes big in China with Shanghai plant
Tesla goes big in China with Shanghai plant
Elon wouldn't predict the "short burn of the century" if all he had was 5000/week and China gigafactory. More likely it's a chain of events, significent events.
Last year Jack predicted TWTR would likely to have a profitable Q4 2017. Since then TWTR stock rallied almost 200%, hitting $48 recently. Why? because they cut cost and created three positive quarters (Q4, Q1, Q2), averaged 4 quarters to be positive, so recently the stock was added to S&P 500. (I'm not saying TWTR is a good buy now, I think it's risky now.). When TWTR was between $15~17, I noticed it had HUGE amount of option positions. I guess that was a clue for what's coming.
For TSLA, we are likely to get positive Q3, Q4 and next Q1, then we get added to the S&P index. This will have a dramatic impact. Will this be the only positive news in the making? I think a lot more is in the pipeline.
This combined with so many idiotic shorts on TSLA, I wouldn't be surprised to see the largest squeeze. Regardless, Tesla is still on track to become one of the largest companies in the world. Maybe we will get a slow squeeze that lasts for years.
Wooloomooloo
Member
Fascinating write up, very convincing.
Good summary analysis w two minor disagreements. China stealing high tech IP is not a conspiracy theory (nor remotely far fetched)
when it's been happening across the board for 20+ years. Why would they change the policy before they are on cutting edge of tech development? Point taken re Tesla/Elon not necessarily caring. Although leaving the family jewels unprotected when the burglar is already leading the world in EV adoption and accelerating doesn't much promote faster transition globally.
You may agree that when the transition dust settles it won't be intl auto business as usual, in that several powerful Euro auto makers are likely to be out of the game or irrelevant. Chinese EV companies and hopefully Tesla will be the dominant auto companies globally with most Euro and Japanese companies trailing behind.
jhm
Well-Known Member
This is not a shenanigan. Lots of companies that issue convertible bond also engage in repurchasing shares. For one thing, many convertible bond investors are inclined to short the stock to hedge the bond. Repurchasing can help balance out this arbitrage motivation for shorting. This is delta hedging on effectively a call option. This will become more volatile as we approach bond maturity and have a share price near the strike price of $360.
But specifically in the case of Tesla, we need to think through what Tesla will do with surplus cash and how it will avoid share dilution. So let's say that in the next 9 months Tesla is able to generate $1.5B in cash for the purpose of settling the bonds. They also have an option to adjust the conversion rate to pretty much whatever they'd like it to be. Thus, Tesla has latitude to settle in shares rather than cash. So if you're sitting on cash and can settle in shares, it makes sense to repurchase shares at below the cost of settling the bonds and to repurchase bonds when the share price is above the costs of settling in shares.
I am not talking about some scheme to manipulate the share price. The point here is simply to settle convertible debt at lowest cost as Tesla generates cash. One way or another the capital must be returned to convertible bondholders, who are contractually indifferent to settling in cash or shares.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Preferably at triple his cost. Sadly he's probably too smart to wait that long.
Where are you folks getting "4 years" from? Electric states: The automaker confirmed the deal and said that it plans to start construction “in the near future” for the first cars to roll off the line in “2 years.”
And I think this will be beaten, given the steep learning-curve they've been through in the last couple of years.
No doubts all sorts of permits-and-*sugar* to get through that will take time, otherwise they'd just pitch a tent and have it spitting out M3's by the end of August
Edit: Tesla say 2-3 years to get to 500k
Tesla goes big in China with Shanghai plant
I think it comes down to whether you believe that construction of GF3 will be intense or in tents...
(Sorry for that, I'm violating my own rules, but I couldn't resist)
Yes, everyone needs to read that well written post. I hadn’t realized that the same shorts that targeted Solarcity just rolled over their short positions onto Tesla. Solarcity was indeed felled by the financial markets drying up, and I have no doubt it was orchestrated by short sellers. Tesla was always an odd choice for a concerted short attack since it isn’t a financial firm. Shorts, like all predators, like easy targets and financial firms are much easier to take down than a beloved manufacturing firm. Now that I understand the history, I understand why Tesla has been targeted.
I also now understand Elon’s 1Q conference call. It was a middle finger at Wall Street, but I couldn’t figure out why. Now I know. This isn’t some minor skirmish war with short sellers thinking the stock is worth $100/share. This is short sellers absolutely trying to bankrupt Tesla through every legal and illegal means necessary (you have to read the attached pdf in the post to understand how much scum of the earth these guys are).
The meta message that Elon was telling Wall Street in the 1Q conference call was “If you help the shorts in any way, including asking idiotic questions that undermine confidence in Tesla, I’m gunning for you”. Calling on a wet behind the ears YouTube analyst and letting him ask 10 questions was a shot across the bow of Wall Street’s position of controlling access to information. It was an explicit threat that Elon, with his huge following, could do serious damage against Wall Street.
This truly is a real battle for the hearts and minds of investors. While it will have its ups and downs, I can’t imagine Elon not coming out on top. After all, if a mild mannered Canadian financial CEO could best these shorts, I have zero doubt Elon can.
I can not help thinking how shorts won that round. I'm now quite convinced that they control short time movements very well. They managed to nullify 2 major milestones in the short term: 5000/week and Chinese Gigafactory and we are now with this steps confirmed are still much lower than when it was not even anticipated by many. The equivalent that could fight those manipulations is Elon timing his twitter announcements with one hand and buying shares with a large fund dedicated to that manipulation with another to support positive dynamics and squeeze shorts. I do not think that is a possible and sane thing to do for Elon, so not going to happen.
bdy0627
Active Member
Short percentage of trading has been trending up for over 10 days now. It's been approaching 60%, which is about as high as it typically gets. It was around 30% in late June. It's no surprise then that good news - end of June model 3 production, China factory announcement - has been causing temporary climbs that don't hold. Bad news or possible concerns - June delivery numbers, Doug Field departure, analysts raising ongoing concerns about profits and sustainability of the production rate, concerns being raised about quality issues and cutting corners to achieve production - have been causing the stock to drop significantly. The short percentage of trading sometimes stays up high for a few weeks, but it isn't going up much from here. It can pretty much only go down from here. When that happens, it will relieve selling pressure on the stock. IMO, this is not the time to worry about a big dip from here. On the contrary, when the short percentage of trading has been low, and the stock has climbed, is more typically the time to be wary of a dip. I see today's dip from the early climb as shenanigans combined with day traders jumping.
bdy0627
Active Member
We opened with a gap up that shot us up well above the 200 MA on the daily chart. The pullback from there has brought us back down to just above the 200 MA.
Esme Es Mejor
Member
That late morning dip to 320 was in sync with Nasdaq making the same dip. That’s not a win for shorts, it’s a win for people who bought at 320 ().
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
- Poll
