TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[30seconds]

Apparently it will be the hundreds of thousands of cancellations now that it has been reveled that Elon donates a small amount to both political parties.

 

[SPadival]

Apparently it will be the hundreds of thousands of cancellations now that it has been reveled that Elon donates a small amount to both political parties.

Wow. They really are desperate. This is the bathroom sink after the kitchen sink has been thrown.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Three possibilities:

One, he overestimated Tamberrino’s intelligence. He assumed Tamberrino was talking about production, since production is the only metric that matters when the waiting list is over 400k.

Two, he overestimated Tamberrino’s intelligence. Estimating deliveries without considering the hard cap of 200k cars would be insane and negligent, and he didn’t realize how insane and negligent Tamberrino really is.

Three, he overestimated Tamberrino’s intelligence. 22k deliveries would hit the 200k limit in Q2, so Musk was saying Tamberrino was in for a rude awakening if he thought Tesla was going to hit the limit in Q2.

1 Fails to account for the fact that Musk linked an article specifically referencing deliveries.
2 Fails to account for the fact that the delivery number under discussion was US AND Canada.
3 Fails to account for the fact that the delivery number under discussion was US AND Canada.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Sure. I think Elon doesn’t care as much about deliveries as he cares about production. Especially, as others have pointed out for a year or more, with 400,000 reservations that they won’t be able to get through for 1-2 years.
.

Then why did he bother to send a company-wide email discussing an analyst's delivery estimates?

Puzzling, as Boomer said.

 

[neroden]

The tesla shares are unplanned as I just discovered an extra 10% I had sitting in another brokerage.

As I've often told people, rule #0 of investing is to know what you already own! ;-)

 

[neroden]

Here ya go, @neroden. Digital wish fulfillment.
Model ≡ ColorS

This is the purple I was thinking of:

Model ≡ ColorS

 

[Reciprocity]

That’s all well and good, but both GS and you are (deliberately?) forgetting the end-Q2-extra-special-case, the 200,000 US deliveries limit that Tesla planned to delay until July. That obviously means, focus on production over deliveries in the US, and stockpile a few to really ramp US deliveries in early July.

Tesla now has a full 6 months where US customers receive the full $7,500 US tax rebate, before it drops to $3,750 for 1H 2019.

I don't know why you guys bother arguing meaningless crap with trolls who are here to mess with you when you could spend 1/10th and meaningfully counter fud that is polluting Twitter and spreading to point where you ask anyone on the street and they will say Tesla's drive themselves into walls and randomly burst into flames and are very dangerous. My friend is a BMW guy but he is also a tech guy. He likes Tesla but thinks they will fail because the fud is so pervasive that it's seeping into minds of the unwitting with help from the media, who apparently follow fudsters and echo their sentiments. But why wouldn't they? Everyone who can counter the fud are spending hours everyday on TMC arguing with trolls about insignificant bs. Sure to win the argument, but no one who could be swayed would ever know it.

It's best to just ignore the trolls and counter fud where it has the most negative impact on Tesla.

 

[Grendal]

This is the purple I was thinking of:

Model ≡ ColorS

Isn't that the same color George R. R. Martin had his Model S done in? Khaleesi purple.

 

[Reciprocity]

1 Fails to account for the fact that Musk linked an article specifically referencing deliveries.
2 Fails to account for the fact that the delivery number under discussion was US AND Canada.
3 Fails to account for the fact that the delivery number under discussion was US AND Canada.

Fails to matter.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I think Elon should announce the beginning of the marketing campaign for Model 3 and start vetting potential partners .

This will shut the journalist up for a while as they fight to stay on his good side.

I believe the currwnt journalist thinking is that, since tesla will never advertise, they don't lose anything by attacking tesla.

The day Tesla starts traditional advertising is the day I sell my TSLA position. Don't worry. I don't expect on ever selling out.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Fails to matter.

Possibly, but it's a voluntary conversation.

 

[Words of HABIT]

After showing my M3 to extended family members and friends, all of them thought the car was amazing. Even those that had relentlessly mocked me and die hard ICE fans. After all I've been waiting for this specific car since September 2012 (not a typo). Their universal theme comments include: "it's the future", "I wan't one", "How long does it take to order one?", "Wow", "looks amazing", disbelief that it could even be done, shock and awe.

On the weekend I went for a drive, for no other reason than to just simply go out for a drive, the drive was the event, not where I was going (think Seinfeld). I haven't done that in over 30 years when I got my first car. This is what is missing from all the FUD arguments. This is why Tesla has already won the race, and I can't wait for all the other OEM to catch up and finish the race to EVs as well.

Last week a former Manager of mine whom I haven't seen in a couple years invited me out for coffee. During our conversation she was very excited to tell me that she bought a Tesla M3 and wanted to give me a test drive. Not knowing my enthusiasm for all things Elon Musk, of course I said "Hey. Tesla, didn't they go Bankwupt!"

 

[bdy0627]

Any ideas, suggestions on what will the bear thesis will move on to next, once their own source has M3 sustained production at 5k/week?

Brodie Ferguson on Twitter

Demand, competition, and profitability are next on the bear list.

 

[Navin]

And Elon as a person.... sigh.
Good News is we have a growing army of model 3s in the market joining the fight. Hard to push against the tide. Good luck shorts

 

[GBleck]

I respect Elon’s attempt to help the footballers in the cave even if it didn’t work out but his current twitter rant isn’t helping.

 

[hacer]

Any ideas, suggestions on what will the bear thesis will move on to next, once their own source has M3 sustained production at 5k/week?

Brodie Ferguson on Twitter

I think there will be another big push to come with a narrative that says all of this is flawed, hasty production resulting in totally unreliable, dangerous cars. It's why LL was asking about an M3 that had an infant mortality failure and thosei stories about brake-and-roll testing came out. There will be a lot more of this. It's also a two-pronged strategy to try to scare not only investors, but also potential customers. It will all be based on 0.01% of course.

 

[bdy0627]

I respect Elon’s attempt to help the footballers in the cave even if it didn’t work out but his current twitter rant isn’t helping.

He just can't stop himself. It sure seems like a counterproductive way to spend his time. And he just said in his interview with Bloomberg last week that he was going to clean up his Twitter rants...

 

[wipster]

After showing my M3 to extended family members and friends, all of them thought the car was amazing. Even those that had relentlessly mocked me and die hard ICE fans. After all I've been waiting for this specific car since September 2012 (not a typo). Their universal theme comments include: "it's the future", "I wan't one", "How long does it take to order one?", "Wow", "looks amazing", disbelief that it could even be done, shock and awe.

On the weekend I went for a drive, for no other reason than to just simply go out for a drive, the drive was the event, not where I was going (think Seinfeld). I haven't done that in over 30 years when I got my first car. This is what is missing from all the FUD arguments. This is why Tesla has already won the race, and I can't wait for all the other OEM to catch up and finish the race to EVs as well.

Last week a former Manager of mine whom I haven't seen in a couple years invited me out for coffee. During our conversation she was very excited to tell me that she bought a Tesla M3 and wanted to give me a test drive. Not knowing my enthusiasm for all things Elon Musk, of course I said "Hey. Tesla, didn't they go Bankwupt!"

I wish this forum allowed for multiple ratings... I would have clicked everything but dislike for this post! m3's themselves and their owners are the best advertising and marketing that money can't buy. I think the tsunami of excitement about this amazing auto (and soon the mY) will be the most effective way to combat the FUD and disregard the shorts. I would bet that every m3 sold will result in at least 2 more m3 purchases. The week after Thanksgiving may result in the largest amount of m3 purchases ever (not counting early reservation days as they weren't sales yet).

 

[gtrplyr1]

Many corporations give to both parties in order to have a "voice" .... this is no different.

The fact that Elon gave such a small percentage to the Rep party is important (it's really a very small % of what he donates every year) ... he gave vastly more to humanitarian and environmental causes. Let's not forget that he very publicly quit Trump's sham of a council when we backed out of the Paris treaty. Anyone questioning Elon on where he stands regarding the environment is severely misinformed or simply incapable of processing information .... and ... I really liked Chelsea Handler but here tweet was idiotic.

It does seem like Elon will make sure to do a better job understanding where his money is going in the future but as far as his intentions go ... it should be crystal clear to anyone paying attention.

Cheers to the longs

 

[SW2Fiddler]

you could spend 1/10th and meaningfully counter fud that is polluting Twitter

Been there all morning...

With Peak FUD flowing, it’s smelly and could be dangerous ...better take these with you:
#PoorJimChanos #FightFUDwithFairFacts

State the facts. You mayn’t convince the actual FUDster but it benefits the onlooker who’s on the fence!