bdy0627
Active Member
Well said. I totally agree. I continue to think it's really this simple - nothing shocking coming up other than Tesla executing. To me, there is no question that Elon lit the fuse on the short burn by being able to produce 5,000/week. Once there for a week, it is just a matter of time until it becomes sustainable. It looks like it will be sustainable quite soon. With production finally meeting guidance, the bearish analysts clearly pivoted to focus on deliveries, even though the much more important metric right now is production. If they can't produce, they can't deliver. Deliveries are guaranteed to happen quickly following production since the vehicles are sold out for over a year. It's such a misguided focus to obsess over the Q2 "deliveries miss."That's exactly what happened and I'm not sure why so many people are struggling with this. Elon has said multiple times, emphatically, that they will be profitable in Q3/Q4 and that 5000/wk Model 3 production was the key benchmark they needed to achieve this. The market did not believe that they would be able to get anywhere close by the end of Q2.
The fact that the market has shrugged off an incredible one-two punch of positive news is not Elon's responsibility. The market will catch up to reality eventually. He promised the short position would explode and it has - they're like Wile E. Coyote who's just run off a cliff. The fact that they haven't fallen yet is irrelevant - there's no ground to stand on.
I've seen a lot of grumbling from people who made short-term bets on Elon's tweet and are clearly salty about it. Maybe you should follow Elon's example - he accumulated shares instead of buying options.
What the analysts and shorts did is sort of like trying to insist the balance in your bank account is a serious problem, even though you just deposited a huge paycheck the day before that requires another day to clear, and they know about the paycheck. It's just plain silly, intentionally missing the forest for the trees. Musk rightly focused on production. Once Tesla demonstrates sustained production at 5,000+, bearish analysts and shorts can be expected to shift their skepticism onto the next thing on the list - profitability. There is certainly some valid skepticism there. Tesla absolutely has to show they can be profitable mass producing the model 3. Bearish analysts can use that card for another few quarters, but as Rob Stark pointed out, with each profitable quarter that goes by, their position is going to look more and more ludicrous.
The key right now is to be patient. There is going to be volatility and consolidation because the views are still so polarized. Each week that goes by takes us closer to the tipping point for the stock. Once the shift occurs, I believe Elon is going to be proven correct once again on delivering what he promised, just not quite on the timeline he suggested.
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