TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[bdy0627]

I'm trying to forecast the impossible with an irrational market and shorts climbing all over this stock. Let's say Tesla averages 600 Model 3 per week for the month of January, entering February at a sustained rate of 700 per week. How does the market react? Where is the stock at the beginning of February?

 

[zmarty]

Let's say Tesla averages 600 Model 3 per week for the month of January, entering February at a sustained rate of 700 per week. How does the market react? Where is the stock at the beginning of February?

And how would the market know this?

 

[larmor]

And how would the market know this?

The market is grounded firmly in the Magic 8-ball...

 

[Curt Renz]

The market is grounded firmly in the Magic 8-ball...

Signs point to yes

I should note that in early December my sister-in-law told me she had begun researching the stock market, and started to buy the shares of a few companies. So at Christmas I presented her with a package, while saying it was to help her with her stock picking. Of course inside was a Magic 8-Ball. She laughed heartily.

 

[bdy0627]

And how would the market know this?

Well, if it's not apparent from a little digging then the Q4 ER/CC should do it.

 

[Causalien]

The market is grounded firmly in the Magic 8-ball...

8 ball says "indubitably"

If any doubt still exist in your mind about whether or not the market is manipulated. The 8 ball's existence should clear you of it.

 

[Hogfighter]

8 ball says "indubitably"

If any doubt still exist in your mind about whether or not the market is manipulated. The 8 ball's existence should clear you of it.

I knew that once the '8-ball' was mentioned, that you'd come out of the woodwork!

 

[dc_h]

I'm trying to forecast the impossible with an irrational market and shorts climbing all over this stock. Let's say Tesla averages 600 Model 3 per week for the month of January, entering February at a sustained rate of 700 per week. How does the market react? Where is the stock at the beginning of February?

This seems to be an important question, unfortunately. There are 3 basic stakeholders, blind bears, blind bulls and pragmatists. The pragmatists are monitoring deliveries and possibly this site for frequent updates. They may not read each post, but if they are big, they may have scripts monitoring the internet for updates. Those people would be making adjustments before earnings, or buying a dip or selling a spike. The blind bears just assume Tesla is a failure and a fraud. If they make 5000 a week, they'll lose 20,000 per car and if they make 600 a week, they will need a cap raise to keep running. The main people that would move on the news, would be blind bulls giving up.
All that said, maybe it will have no impact. Jonas and Gene Munster will say they are on the expected track and all is fine. People making financial decisions tend to filter out Chucky (WSJ) and Marky on twitter, who are broken records, spewing the same story over and over.

*I'm oversimplifying on the type of stockholders for narrative. There are strong longs and weak longs and strong and long shorts and many other types of people and investors.

 

[neroden]

Well. That was an interesting first 20 minutes of trading. Mandatory morning dip early, and then straight up. If I understand Papafox's theories correctly, we should now go into "whack a mole" mode as shorts try to prevent a long runup.

 

[Huskyf]

Ohhh What's UP with $TSLA +1.55% ???

 

[Drax7]

Somebody close to the freemont factory, we need a reconnaissance fly over.
What is the status of the parking lot.

 

[ktrivedi70]

Well. That was an interesting first 20 minutes of trading. Mandatory morning dip early, and then straight up. If I understand Papafox's theories correctly, we should now go into "whack a mole" mode as shorts try to prevent a long runup.

I know this makes me kind of an a`hole, but there's something about watching these guys work so hard at 'whack-a-mole' and in the end, losing (or at least not winning very much) that really makes me feel all warm and happy inside. I don't want to begrudge anybody their income but if your job is basically dishonest manipulation (as opposed to honest investing), and its done against an entity that genuinely is trying to do good, then to hell with you. Every dollar they lose makes me feel that much better that there is, in fact, some justice in this world.

Rant over.

On a more positive note, don't forget that the Falcon Heavy static fire will hopefully be today. Please don't blow up, please don't blow up, please,,,,,,,,

 

[Reciprocity]

Every time it touches 341, it makes a big tick down, like 50 cents.. That must be the line that has been drawn. If it breaks above 341, it could run based on TA guys I follow on Twitter.

Edit: hah, didnt take long.. next stop 347, no 346 under any circumstances.

 

[JRP3]

342+

 

[Starno]

Is the Falcon Heavy warm up launch (or smthg) planed for today ?
If yes what time normally ?

 

[Papafox]

Well. That was an interesting first 20 minutes of trading. Mandatory morning dip early, and then straight up. If I understand Papafox's theories correctly, we should now go into "whack a mole" mode as shorts try to prevent a long runup.

I became bullish in my daily chart post yesterday afternoon because I saw short percentage of trading drop from the 55%-66% range since Nov 27 to only 50% over the past two days. I think the very active manipulative shorts (not the sell-and-hold types) are backing off and realizing that TSLA is not a profitable manipulation because it will be going up. Once the stock starts climbing, volume goes up, and longs are in control. Methinks once the manipulators gave up, the stock goes up and weak shorts start to cover. I suspect part of the run up is shorts covering.

Note: The manipulators will be back when they perceive it is profitable, but they realized they could no longer hold back the inevitable climb.

 

[Drax7]

up $10 in a vacuum , enlighten me somebody

 

[JRP3]

up $10 in a vacuum , enlighten me somebody

It's TSLA

 

[SteveG3]

up $10 in a vacuum , enlighten me somebody

it's time we faced facts, we are not the only ones who see the stock is almost certainly quite undervalued

 

[koolkool]

Rise is because I have a Bear Credit Spread at 345 expiring tomorrow. As has happened many times in the past, price will inexplicably spike over 345 on Friday to wipe me out and the price will then crash on Monday.