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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Umm, I think a well progressing ramp up and 'running out of current owners' are two ideas that go side by side.
as of recent, we're somewhat aware they've sold a total of less than or around 10k M3s out of what was supposed to be 450k reservation holders. anyone that puts an order in today will either not receive their vehicle for over a year or they'll skip ahead in the line. what other explanation could there be than they don't plan on opening the lower cost deliveries anytime soon and are going to deliver higher priced vehicles to those that did not reserve prior?
 
In about 5 weeks it is likely that Tesla will confirm that the M3 ramp has hit 2500 cars per week, and reconfirm guidance for 5000 cars within 3 months.

If that occurs, Tesla will be in the strongest position ever, and my money is on an ATH shortly after that announcement. Of course anything can happen, but the odds seem favorable to me.
 
In about 5 weeks it is likely that Tesla will confirm that the M3 ramp has hit 2500 cars per week, and reconfirm guidance for 5000 cars within 3 months.

If that occurs, Tesla will be in the strongest position ever, and my money is on an ATH shortly after that announcement. Of course anything can happen, but the odds seem favorable to me.
in about 8 days, insideevs will update their tables. I expect the M3 numbers to be less than 4k for feb. I expect them to deliver 10k M3s in Q1 and report 1.8k/wk at the end of Q1... then reaffirm guidance of 5k/wk for Q2... then miss that too.
 
Fact:
Great day for TSLA (up 3.9%) on a NASDAQ down day to boot.
TSLA (58.5B) has once again overtaken GM (57.4B) in Market Cap. Woot Woot!

Opinions:
I'm not surprised at all Tesla MS & MX outselling German top end of luxury brands in Germany.
Governments from Germany and around the World will protect their own diesel cheaters, short term gain for few, long term loss for all.
ATH will not be reached until 5k M3 confirmed, hopefully by end of June.
Tesla's financials are recession proof, however TSLA is not. Any severe market pull back will hit TSLA harder than the indexes. You only have to look back two weeks to see this. Don't ever forget TT007.
Talk about merger between Tesla and SpaceX is nonsense. If Tesla is high risk, SpaceX is plaid risk. There is 10X greater chance that Tesla is taken private.
...and while I'm at it, MY will not have falcon doors, but will have longer range and cost more than M3. Anyone wishing for a lower priced Tesla vehicle can purchase used, still excellent value since they should be good for 30+ years minimum and will never go out of style. All Tesla vehicles will be classic.

Strong to the Longs. This is just the beginning of a beautiful friendship.
Daniel
 
In about 5 weeks it is likely that Tesla will confirm that the M3 ramp has hit 2500 cars per week, and reconfirm guidance for 5000 cars within 3 months.

If that occurs, Tesla will be in the strongest position ever, and my money is on an ATH shortly after that announcement. Of course anything can happen, but the odds seem favorable to me.
I would be cautious regarding your expectations there. Better off not betting on it anyway. Tesla may very well indicate that portions of the line are capable of bursts of production up to 2,500/week. They also may indicate that the line from Germany is nearly installed and will be operational soon. I'm personally not expecting more than that.
 
...Don't ever forget TT007...l
Yes, don't get in over your head.
But in the specific case of our comrade @TrendTrader007, I'd like to note that he has a net income that places him in the top 1% or so from his ‘day job’, anyway. So just monthly investing his surplus cash into plain $TSLA stock wil make him retire within ten years as a member of the top 0.1%.
Not an advice, ohne Gewähr, etcetera.
 
in about 8 days, insideevs will update their tables. I expect the M3 numbers to be less than 4k for feb. I expect them to deliver 10k M3s in Q1 and report 1.8k/wk at the end of Q1... then reaffirm guidance of 5k/wk for Q2... then miss that too.

And the stock will still go up. You will still whine that it keeps going up even on bad news. And we will all laugh and keep adding shares. You will still ask the same dumb question about why BMW makes more money and blah blah. And we will explain that Tesla is growing at 50+% a year even with lower delivery numbers and you will whine some more and babble about how competition is coming in the magical year of 2020.. and so on and so on like every month or so.
 
Like many others, i happily bought back in at $336 before macros messed everything up. If not for macros i think $336 would have been a great entry. Just old at $344, assuming we'll see mid $330's next week.

Any reason for today's action?
Could it in part be this really positive article on fool.com? Tesla, Inc. Sees Surprising Demand For Model S and X

The cars that can't be built and no one wants seem to be in great demand.
 
Anyone come across a good justification for today’s spike?

stock has been deeply undervalued for years, and was down nearly 15% in a matter of days after a very strong earnings call. generally makes sense for some of the market irrationality to be unwound without any particular apparent catalyst from time to time, even more so after a selloff on a strong earnings report.

might also have something to do with the world's number one seller of semi trucks saying yesterday that either Tesla is making stuff up about their coming semi, or, Tesla is about 1-2 years from releasing a semi with specs which said number one seller of semi trucks has no idea how to make themselves (and, fwiw, number one in semis means something like 30-40% market share, not the ~10% it means for consumer vehicles).
 
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