ValueAnalyst
Closed
Shorts can suck it!! Made $1,000 on the morning dip
Way to BTFD. Know a few people who did the same. Congrats.
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Way to BTFD. Know a few people who did the same. Congrats.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I would generally agree, but macros may trump everything. And push everything back by “3 months maybe, 6 months definitely.”
sweter
Member
The rollercoaster might be a good preparation for the takeoff. I've already managed to buy 25% more shares playing it (sometimes supported by other stocks) with the same initial investment I made in Jan 2017. Would have been more but I made a few newbie mistakes and now doing it more cautiously. This will continue until ~mid Q2 I think, about 2 weeks after Q1 CC. I think. Or I guess.
I personally have a hard time with short-term share price estimates because the stock market can be irrational. And the next 2-3 years seem especially hard to predict given inflated asset prices and the unstable political environment.
But I like Elon's odds of earning his full bonus by 2028 or sooner.
So how will the tariffs on steel and aluminum affect Tesla. I assume there will be price increases to pay for it and will the rest of the world place tariffs on the only Made in the USA car brand?
Reciprocity
Active Member
It depends, where does Tesla get their raw materials? If they get them from the US, probably no change at all. Prices won't necessarily go up in the US, the prices of US steel and aluminium will just be competitive now. If they use foreign sources that will depend on which country. I'm sure China will just devalue their currency to offset these tariffs. That will make Tesla's a lot more expensive in China, so it's critical Tesla accelerates their plans in China. Problem it's that China requires all their IP to be shared to do business there, so Tesla will probably never have a factory there . Because Tesla's cars are the IP nor are the batteries. It's the manufacturing plant and the software there that makes Tesla special. I can't see them sharing that with China. I guess we will see.
bdy0627
Active Member
I think we've hit $360 6 times so far, if you count the last one which was technically $359.99. How many circles of Hell are there???
bdy0627
Active Member
TSLA stock pattern over the last 10 months from local peak/dip to the next local dip/peak, starting 5/2/17 at a local peak of $327:
bdy0627
Active Member
bdy0627
Active Member
Percentage of certain levels on climb/dip:
Total dips since 5/2/17: 12
7% Dip: 92%
8%: 83%
9%: 75%
10%: 67%
11%: 50%
12%: 42%
13%: 33%
Total climbs since 5/2/17: 11
7% Climb: 100%
8%: 91%
9%: 91%
10%: 82%
11%: 82%
12%: 73%
13%: 64%
14%: 64%
15%: 55%
16%: 45%
17%: 45%
18%: 36%
Total dips since 5/2/17: 12
7% Dip: 92%
8%: 83%
9%: 75%
10%: 67%
11%: 50%
12%: 42%
13%: 33%
Total climbs since 5/2/17: 11
7% Climb: 100%
8%: 91%
9%: 91%
10%: 82%
11%: 82%
12%: 73%
13%: 64%
14%: 64%
15%: 55%
16%: 45%
17%: 45%
18%: 36%
bdy0627
Active Member
Conclusion from at least the last 10 months of stock movement is that it was pretty risky to bet the stock would continue going up after it had already risen 15% from a local dip. It was also pretty risky to bet the stock would continue going down after it had dropped 11% from a local peak. At those levels, the contrarian has done well.
bdy0627
Active Member
One more piece of data:
Average number of trading days to the next local peak/dip: 9
Least number of trading days to the next local peak/dip: 2
Greatest number of trading days to the next local peak/dip: 23
Average number of trading days to the next local peak/dip: 9
Least number of trading days to the next local peak/dip: 2
Greatest number of trading days to the next local peak/dip: 23
Sudre
Active Member
Excellent work. I think we often have this in our head, but you have reduced to some excellent graphs I will keep handy.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Great info. Ideal for the Put/Call strategy I have. The problem is that as soon as I implement my strategy its going to go straight up or down and wipe out one or the other or even worst.. stay the exact same until they expire. In general though I think the bias should be to the upside, but I expect more of the same until we get better delivery numbers. Then the good news should come fast and furiously, with Y reveal, Pickup reveal, Semi going into production and then Y going into production. Its going to be exciting. Now if they could just figure out how to build all this stuff.
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