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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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If it takes on average 4-6 weeks between VIN registration and delivery. I think that's about it for this quarter : we'll probably get between 11323(previous VIN registration) and 12436 (last VIN registration) M3 delivered this quarter.

The problem I have with this is that highest vin in the wild is around 8436ish and the NHSTA Vin registered is 12436. That is 4k cars to be produced, give or take. That tells me that Tesla only needs 4k Vins or less for the rest of the quarter because they wont be registering more Vins for a couple of weeks based on the recent pace. I hope this is not the case, but I am not getting the impression there is a ramp. Its more of a stumbling til the end of the quarter. Will be interesting how they spin the 2500/w. They might say.. "we produced like 500 cars on the last day so yeah.. 2500/w."
 
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With the reversal candle today with a nice long lower wick, the dip is likely already completed and we are starting a new climb. It was a 10.6% drop from $360 to $322 in 4 trading days. Over the last year of trading, 82% of the time on a new climb, we have risen at least 11%, which would get us to $357 on this next climb. On average, TSLA climbs 10% in 5 trading days. I'm playing the odds and just added a few more J19 $350s and June $320s.
 
With the reversal candle today with a nice long lower wick, the dip is likely already completed and we are starting a new climb. It was a 10.6% drop from $360 to $322 in 4 trading days. Over the last year of trading, 82% of the time on a new climb, we have risen at least 11%, which would get us to $357 on this next climb. On average, TSLA climbs 10% in 5 trading days. I'm playing the odds and just added a few more J19 $350s and June $320s.
Nice call on today's action. I should have stuck to my original plan and waited for sub $330, instead of jumping in at $331 yesterday. Also wish I had converted more of my J19s to J20s. But I agree that $350 will likely come around again soon, maybe in a week or so.
 
So guys what high # does TSLA stock hit:

1. this year?

2. what about in 2019?

3. 2020?

I say:
1. $550
2. $1,000 (10 to 1 split)
3. $2,000 ($200 split adjusted)

I’m long 543 sh.
We have to get through this quarter first, and then Tesla has to hit it's targeted Model3 production. Then we can talk about 2018, let alone 2019 and 2020. Until then TSLA will be a rollercoaster ride instead of a rocket launch.
 
I am going to sit tight and expect a monster reversal once people realize that trade wars are something that never happens anymore. Trump is right about winning them. Slapping tariffs on US goods would only penalize their own citizens at the same time they have an overall trade imbalance with the US that is like 10:1 - 100:1.
So you think a trade war against the whole of the world is going to be easy to win? Oh my.

The only thing with trade wars that is easy is that all sides will suffer, and as this is US vs World its easy to see which side will suffer most.
 
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